HANDBOOK OF CAPTURE-RECAPTURE ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 HANDBOOK OF CAPTURE-RECAPTURE ANALYSIS Edited by Steven C. Amstrup, Trent L. McDonald, and Bryan F. J. Manly PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD

2 Contents^ List of Illustrations List of Tables Preface ix xi xvii One 1 Introduction to the Handbook Bryan F. J. Manly, Trent L. McDonald, and Steven C. Amstrup 1.1 Introduction Overview of Chapters 2 to Maximum Likelihood with Capture-Recapture Methods Model Selection Procedures Notation 19 Two 22 Classical Closed-population Capture-Recapture Models Anne Chao and Richard M. Huggins 2.1 Introduction Structure of Capture-Recapture Experiments and Data Early Models and Estimators Limitations of Early Models and the Motivation for More General Models Chapter Summary 35 Three 36 Classical Open-population Capture-Recapture Models Kenneth H. Pollock and Russell Alpizar-Jara 3.1 Introduction The Original Jolly-Seber Model The Jolly-Seber Likelihood Components Restrictions and Generalizations of the Jolly-Seber Model Age-dependent Models Goodness-of-Fit and Model Selection Issues Examples Conclusions Chapter Summary 55

3 vi Four 58 Modern Closed-population Capture-Recapture Models Anne Chao and Richard M. Huggins 4.1 Introduction Discrete-time Models with Unequal Catch abilities Continuous-time Models Computing Considerations Chapter Summary 86 Five 88 Modern Open-population Capture-Recapture Models James D. Nichols 5.2 Introduction Conditional Single-age Models Conditional Multiple-age Models Reverse-time Models Unconditional Models The Robust Design Discussion Chapter Summary 121 Six 124 Tag-recovery Models John M. Hoenig, Kenneth H. Pollock, and William Hearn 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Assumptions of Brownie Models 6.3 Interpretation of the Tag-recovery Rate Parameter 6.4 Functional Linkage Between the Exploitation Rate and the Survival Rate Instantaneous Rate Models for Estimating Harvest and Natural Mortality 6.6 Diagnostics and Tests of Assumptions 6.7 Preventing and Dealing with Failures of Assumptions 6.8 Chapter Summary Seven Joint Modeling of Tag-recovery and Live-resighting Data Richard J. Barker 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Data Structure 7.3 Simple Models 7.4 More General Models 7.5 Model Fitting and Assessment

4 VU 7.6 Tag Misreads and Tag Loss Computing Considerations Chapter Summary 163 Eight 165 Multistate Models Carl J. Schwarz 8.1 Introduction The Arnason-Schwarz Model The Jolly-Seber Approach Multisample Stratified Closed Populations Multisample Stratified Open Populations Chapter Summary 194 Nine 196 Examples Trent L. McDonald, Steven C. Amstrup, Eric V. Regehr, and Bryan F. J. Manly 9.1 Introduction Open-population Analyses of Data on the European Dipper The Huggins Closed-population Model Applied to the European Dipper Data Assessing Goodness-of-Fit Horvitz-Thompson Open-population Size Estimates A Multistate (Multistrata) Model Polar Bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea Dead Recoveries of Mallard Ducks 25A 9.9 Chapter Summary 263 Ten. 266 Capture-Recapture Methods in Practice Bryan F. J. Manly, Steven C. Amstrup, and Trent L. McDonald 10.1 Introduction Closed-population Models Open-population Models Tag-recovery Models Other Models Model Selection Known Ages 272 Appendix 275 A.I Capability Matrix for Common Capture-Recapture Software Packages 275

5 V1U A.2 General and Contact Information for Common Capture-Recapture Software Packages Listed in Table A.I 277 References 281 Contributor's Notes 301 Index 303