INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKET MODELS AND POLICY ANALYSIS

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKET MODELS AND POLICY ANALYSIS

2 ADVANCED STUDIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMETRICS VOLUME 13 Managing Editors: J.P. Ancot, Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands A.J. Hughes Hallett, University of Newcastle, U.K. Editorial Board: F.G. Adams, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, U.S.A. P. Balestra, University of Geneva, Switzerland M.G. Dagenais, University of Montreal, Canada D. Kendrick, University of Texas, Austin, U.S.A. J.H.P. Paelinck, Netherlands Economic Institute, Rotterdam, The Netherlands R.S. Pindyck, Sloane School of Management, M.I.T., U.S.A. H. Theil, University of Florida, Gainesville, U.S.A. W. Welfe, University of Lodz, Poland For a complete list of volumes in this series see final page of this volume.

3 International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis edited by O. Guvenen Universite de Paris. France KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS DORDRECHT / BOSTON / LONDON

4 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data International commodity market models and policy analysis. Papers from an international conference organized by the Applied Econometric Association, held at the University of Zaragoza, in Spain. 1. Commodity exchanges--econometric models- Congresses. I. Guvenen, O. II. Applied Econometric Association. HG '4' ISBN -13: e-isbn-13: DOl: / Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, P_O_ Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, The Netherlands_ Kluwer Academic Publishers incorporates the publishing programmes of D. Reidel, Martinus Nijhoff, Dr W. Junk and MTP Press. Sold and distributed in the U.S.A. and Canada by Kluwer Academic Publishers, 101 Philip Drive, Norwell, MA 02061, U.S.A. In all other countries, sold and distributed by Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, The Netherlands. All Rights Reserved 1988 by Kluwer Academic Publishers Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1988 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner

5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface O.Guvenen vii Introduction O. Guvenen ix PART I: MODELLING METHODOLOGIES 1. An Integrated Market Model of Exhaustible Resource Behaviour M. Radetzki and W Labys 2. Optimal and Competitive Storage Rules: The Gustafson Problem Revisited C.L. Gilbert 3. The Impact of Price Stabilisation on Producers' Revenue and Consumers' Expenditure N. Davutyan 4. Stability of Base Products Markets: A Game Theory Analysis A. Richard

6 vi PART II: APPLICATIONS 5. A World Grains and Soybeans Model D. O. Mitchell 6. Simulation of Supply, Demand and Price Interactions in the Magnesium Market F. Field, J. Bush and J. Clark 7. Demand for Gasoline: An Application of a New Selection Model Procedure A. Aznar and p, Garcia Castrillo 8. Competitive Technologies, Equipment Vintages, and the Demand for Energy F. Carlevaro PART III: STABILISATION POLICY 9. Asymmetry and Robustness in Stabilisation Policy for Imperfect Commodity Markets J.K. Sengupta 10. Commodity Market Stabilisation with Speculative Activity: An Example From the World Copper Market A.J. Hughes Hallett PART IV: TRADE ASPECTS 11. Oil and the North-8outh Terms of Trade A. Gonzalez-Romero and S.M.R. Kanbur 12. Modelling Commodity Prices in a World Macro Economic Model G.H. Holtham 13. The Econometrics of Commodities in International Economic Linkages F.G. Adams

7 PREFACE o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international commodity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible without the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii

8 INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary commodity markets. Quantitative techniques, often backed by engineering concepts, have been used to elaborate new generations of models and policy analysis through institutional and structural analysis. In that spirit, this book attempts to cover theoretical and empirical research by model builders and users arising to improve economic policy analysis through better understanding and forecasting of international primary commodity markets in an increasingly interdependent system. This content is presented in four sections: i) Modelling methodologies ii) Applications iii) Stabilisation policy iv) Trade aspects In the first section Radetzki and Labys present, at theoretical and empirical level, a model capable of analysing long run exhaustible resource market behaviour with the inclusion of intermediate and short run phenomena. Gilbert's paper derives a number of approximations to the competitive storage function in commodity market models. The study has implications for both policy and modelling. Davutyan analyses in his paper the impact of price and stabilisation on producers' revenue and consumers' expenditure. As a complementary methodology in explaining the conflictual characteristics of the commodity markets and the potential coalitions, Richard uses the game theory approach for the representation of active strategies. In part two, which deals with modelling applications, Mitchell describes the world grain and soybean model currently used by the World Bank for medium term annual ix

9 x projections of world prices, trade, production, consumption and ending stocks for each country or region. It is a n o n ~ p a pt ai ra tl i, a l ~ q unet-trade i l i b rmodel. i u m, The paper by Field, Bush and Clark develops an engineering simulation model of the world magnesium market. The demand sector consists of statistical and engineering analysis of the relationship between consumption, technical requirements, market growth, price and the availability of magnesium and substitute materials. The supply side is represented by engineering-based cost functions and a set of alternative pricing mechanisms to translate the cost-output relationships into price-output functions. How many and which variables should be considered in the final specifcation in analysing gasoline demand? To answer this question, Aznar and Castrillo use a threestage methodology: (a) determination of the set of admissable models, (b) determination of the set of most informative models, and (c) tests of structural change in order to measure the closeness of different models to new observed facts. Carlevaro proposes a conceptual framework describing the impact of technological changes affecting the stock of fuel burning equipment, on the level and pattern of energy demand. This conceptual framework is used for the simulation of energy demand. The third section is on stabilisation policy. The paper by Sengupta discusses the complexity of the robustness problem in the context of static and dynamic stabilisation policies in general and particularly in the case of the world coffee market. Conflict and non-cooperation, unequal degrees of risk aversion and the difficulty of specifying an optimal size of variable export quota are mentioned as factors which make it difficult to formulate stabilisation policies in world commodity markets with dominant producers. Primary commodities being vitally important to the less developed economies, commodity stabilisation agreements have become a major issue in in international commodity policy. In that context, the paper by Hughes Hallett contains a comprehensive analysis based on theoretical and empirical approaches, and considering market stabilisation as a dnamic optimisation problem when there are also speculators operating in the market. He shows that stabilisation of the market is still possible but it is more expensive than in the absence of speculators with forward looking (rational) expectations. The author examines, in the context of a single market, the changes to the intervention patterns needed, the potential costs of reaching the desired goals and the income distribution aspects. The final section deals with the trade aspects. The paper by Gonzalez-Romero and Kanbur analyses the impact of the price of oil on the terms of trade between North and South. Two alternative frameworks are used: (a) a structural, three-region model which shows that an increase in the price of oil will tend to worsen the terms of trade of the

10 xi South vis-a-vis the North, and (b) the neoclassical model which produces the opposite result with its full employment assumptions. Endogenising commodity prices in OECD's world macro model INTERLINK is the main purpose of the paper by Holtham. The author concludes that estimated equations have standard errors at least as low as other similar ones in the literature, and the results do not suggest that the use of such aggregate equations would be much of an improvement. In the light of the growing interdependence of the world economy, the paper by Adams analyses the ability of econometric approaches to deal with commodities in international economic market model building. Models which represent an abstraction of a complex real world do have obvious limitations. For many developing economies, more than 50 to 90 percent of earnings are derived from a single commodity. Considering that the aggregate commodity price index shows declining prices since 1950, with the exception of the Korean boom in 1950 and the oil boom in 1973, and adding to that the instability in most commodity markets, the failure of multilateral and unilateral stabilisation policies and increasing protectionist pressures, the importance of the problem solving approach in model building and policy analysis becomes more apparent in the context of an interdependent world economy. As model builders and policy analysts, our role is to have a problem solving approach and to minimise uncertainty.