Connecting eastern monarch population dynamics across their migratory cycle
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1 Connecting eastern monarch population dynamics across their migratory cycle Leslie Ries, Univ. of MD Karen Oberhauser, Univ. of MN Elise Zipkin, USGS (Patuxent) Doug Taron, IL BMS Eduardo Rendon, WWF Mexico
2 Monarchs have a complex migratory cycle that makes tracking population dynamics challenging Stage : Spring migration and breeding Stage 1: Overwintering Stage 3: Summer expansion and breeding Stage 4: Fall migration Dynamics in one stage have carry over effects into subsequent stages On the other hand, it is largely one population, rather than a series of loosely connected sub populations
3 Understanding monarch population dynamics is critical for their conservation Notable patterns: Eastern monarchs may be declining, but examining different life stages suggests different patterns Monarch populations show large fluctuations from year to year Underlying mechanisms REGIONAL CONNECTIONS: How do dynamics in one phase of the migratory cycle influence dynamics in subsequent phases? ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE: How much do environmental factors influence the connection between these phases? SUMMER MONITORING DATA FALL MONITORING DATA WINTER MONITORING DATA
4 How can we track dynamics through each life stage? Monarch Health started 99 Gen 3/4 eggs Gen 3/4 adults N. American Bfly Assoc. started 1975 Ohio BMS started 96 Monarch Larvae Monitoring Project started 99 Migrants going north Gen eggs Gen 1 eggs Expansion Journey North started 99 Gen adults Gen 1 adults Adults arriving in Mexico Surviving overwinter adults Migrants going south Illinois BMS started 87 Florida BMS started 3 Cape May Roosts started 9 Journey South started 99 Monarch Watch started 9 Peninsula Point Roosts started 96 WWF Mexico started 96 started tracking overwinter mortality in 3
5 Data Available for Analysis Monarch Larvae Monitoring Project (MLMP) North American Butterfly Association Counts (NABA) Ohio Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (OH) Illinois Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (IL) Cape May (CM) WWF Mexico (MEX) ( 95 winter start; 4 winter end) Mexican sites
6 Data Available for Analysis N Central N East Monarch Larvae Monitoring Project (MLMP) North American Butterfly Association Counts (NABA) Ohio Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (OH) South Cape May (CM) WWF Mexico (MEX) ( 95 winter start; 4 winter end) Mexican sites
7 Tracking the population through each region and stage 1. Do the number of adults surviving the winter in Mexico relate to the number of adults arriving in the Texas area in spring?. Do the number of spring arriving adults relate to the number of 1 st gen eggs that are recorded? Mexican sites
8 Tracking the population through each region and stage 1. Do the number of adults surviving the winter in Mexico relate to the number of adults arriving in the Texas area in spring?. Do the number of spring arriving adults relate to the number of 1st gen eggs that are recorded? 3. How do the number of spring adults or eggs relate to the number of 1 st generation arrivals in the northern regions? Mexican sites
9 Tracking the population through each region and stage 1. Do the number of adults surviving the winter in Mexico relate to the number of adults arriving in the Texas area in spring?. Do the number of spring arriving adults relate to the number of 1st gen eggs that are recorded? 3. How do the number of spring adults or eggs relate to the number of 1st generation arrivals in the northern regions? 4. Can the number of 1 st generation adults / nd generation eggs predict numbers in subsequent generations? Mexican sites
10 Tracking the population through each region and stage 1. Do the number of adults surviving the winter in Mexico relate to the number of adults arriving in the Texas area in spring?. Do the number of spring arriving adults relate to the number of 1st gen eggs that are recorded? 3. How do the number of spring adults or eggs relate to the number of 1st generation arrivals in the northern regions? 4. Can the number of 1st generation adults / nd generation eggs predict numbers in subsequent generations? 5. Can the size of the population at the last stages of the breeding cycle predict the number of fall migrants? Mexican sites
11 Tracking the population through each region and stage Mexican sites 1. Do the number of adults surviving the winter in Mexico relate to the number of adults arriving in the Texas area in spring?. Do the number of spring arriving adults relate to the number of 1st gen eggs that are recorded? 3. How do the number of spring adults or eggs relate to the number of 1st generation arrivals in the northern regions? 4. Can the number of 1st generation adults / nd generation eggs predict numbers in subsequent generations? 5. Can the size of the population at the last stages of the breeding cycle predict the number of fall migrants? 6. Can the size of the population at the last stages of the breeding cycle predict the number of Mexican arrivals?
12 Q1 and Q. How do overwintering numbers relate to the number of arriving adults and how do arriving adults influence the number of eggs we see in the spring? NABA detections (spr South) Mexican migrants and spring adults.5 r=.5 p= Red point means the number of survey sites slipped below five MEX monarch area covered (ha) A non existent (or weak) relationship between the number of adults leaving Mexico and the number arriving in Texas and surrounding areas in the spring. And no hint of a relationship between spring adults and eggs. But there are few data available to rigorously make these comparisons!! MLMP egg density (South) Spring adults and spring eggs r=.34 p= NABA detections (South)
13 Q3. How do the number of spring adults or eggs relate to the number of 1st generation arrivals in the northern regions? NOTE: There are eight combinations of comparisons here, none show significant relationships (the strongest patterns are shown below). 1 st gen eggs in south to nd gen eggs North Migrant adults in south to 1 st gen adult arrivals nd gen MLMP egg density (N Central) r=.5 p= NABA 1st Gen adults (N East) r=.69 p= st gen MLMP egg density (South) NABA spring migrants (South) A weak, or non existent, relationship between the spring generation and summer arrivals in the north could be due to lack of data, or swamping out by environmental factors.
14 Q3. Can the number of 1st generation adults / nd generation eggs predict numbers in subsequent generations? N East: 6.8 r=.899 p=<.1 r=.85 p=.4 N Central: Summer NABA detections (N East) Summer MLMP egg dens (N Central) nd gen MLMP egg density (N East) r=.795 p=< nd gen MLMP egg density (N Central) Summer NABA detections (N Central) nd gen MLMP egg density (N East) st Gen Spring arrivals NABA (N Central) YES: This suggests that the number of arrivals in the northern breeding grounds from the southern spring generation has a strong influence on the ultimate size of that year s population. Summer MLMP egg density (N East) r=.73 p=.5
15 Tracking climate s impacts on the migratory monarch butterfly a) center of summer recruitment b) Overwintering site Years of data We examined the impacts on population growth in Ohio of: 1. Spring temperature (in Texas). Spring precipitation (in Texas) 3. Summer temperature (in Ohio) 4. Summer precipitation (in Ohio)
16 Patterns based on simple climate metrics aren t informative Summer Mean number peak monarchs/hr population (weeks size 6 8) (Ohio) 18 a) Spring Texas temperature GDD (weeks (GDD 4 9) in Texas) Summer Ohio temperature GDD (weeks(gdd 1 8) in Ohio) c) d) 15 1 b) Spring Texas precipitation rainfall (cm) (Texas) Ohio PDI (through week 8) Summer drought index (Ohio)
17 Meaningful patterns emerge when patterns are evaluated in a multiple regression framework, taking site characteristics into account a) b) Standardized Spring GDD in TX spring (standardized) GDD in TX Spring Standardized precipitation (cm) spring TX Precip (standardized) in TX Week GDDdiff (standardized) Location with min average GDD GDDdiff (standardized) GDDdiff (standardized) Standardized summer GDD in Ohio -1 Coolest sites Avg site Location with mean average GDD - -3 Location with max average GDD Summer GDD in OH (standardized) Zipkin et al. (in press): Global Change Biology Warmest sites Week
18 The story so far No relationship between adults leaving Mexico, arriving in the South, and laying eggs Weak (or non existent) relationship between adults arriving in the South, next generation arrivals in the North and egg laying The disconnect may be due to the importance of spring climate on the ultimate population size (and/or health) of migrants to the North A strong relationship between the numbers arriving in the North and laying eggs and the size of the population at the end of the summer. This suggests that the size of that first generation produced in the spring that arrives in the North is an important contributor to yearly population sizes and (again) that spring climate is important Next up: Population connections on the return trip
19 Q5. Can the size of the population at the last stages of the breeding cycle predict the number of fall migrants? 1 r=.61 p=.5 1 Cape May Roost Size N east summer adult population (NABA detections)
20 Q6. Can the size of the population at the last stages of the breeding cycle predict the number of Mexican arrivals? Overwinter colony size in Nov (ha) r=. p=.99 Overwinter colony size in Nov (ha) r=.1 p= N east summer adult population (NABA detections) N central summer adult population (NABA detections) NO? This lack of relationship is surprising given results of past (admittedly smaller) analyses, and deserves further examination.
21 Conclusions and future directions Growth during the summer breeding season is the most important factor driving yearly population sizes The number (or health) of migrants arriving from the southern US into the north is a key driver of population growth and this may be driven by climate Summer climate also influences summer growth There seems to be little congruence between winter colony size and the spring and summer detection rates from butterfly surveys Loss of milkweed (not captured by surveys) may be influencing winter, but not summer, values (Pleasants and Oberhauser, in press) We will continue to develop this regional connections framework Include data from other programs Repeat analyses as data resources grow Continue to develop mechanistic models that explore environmental impacts on specific stages or linkages
22 Acknowledgements All members of MonarchNet NCEAS monarch working group Program coordinators and the thousands of volunteers!!! Funding: Monarch Joint Venture CEC SESYNC
23 Results: Winter counts are related to the previous summer (but not vice versa) Gen 4 adults Gen 4 adults Overwintering adults 3.5 Overwintering adults ln (Following Winter Mexican Counts + 1) Illinois Ohio 4-Jul Linear (Ohio) Linear (Illinois) ln (Previous Summer Counts + 1) LN (Following Summer Counts) Illinois Ohio 4-Jul ln (Previous Winter Mexican Counts) Illinois: r =.7, p =.5 Ohio: r =.8, p =.9 4July: r =.38, p =.1* Illinois: r =.13, p =.68 Ohio: r =.8, p =.83 4July: r =.17, p =.6 *Data can be expanded to their full range and for the full 3 years of winter data
24 Two main questions Stage : Spring migration and breeding Stage 1: Overwintering Stage 3: Summer expansion and breeding Stage 4: Fall migration REGIONAL CONNECTIONS ANALYSIS: How do dynamics in one phase of the migratory cycle influence dynamics in subsequent phases? CLIMATE ANALYSIS: How much do environmental factors influence the connection between these phases?
25 Monarch Net: A network of monarch monitoring groups For more information, see monarchnet.org and the Butterfly Monitoring Poster
26 How can we track dynamics through each life stage? Gen 3/4 adults N. American Bfly Assoc. started 1975 Gen 3/4 eggs Monarch Larvae Monitoring Project started 99 Gen eggs Expansion Gen adults Gen 1 adults Cape May Roosts started 9 Gen 1 eggs Migrants going south Migrants going north Adults arriving in Mexico Surviving overwinter adults WWF Mexico started 96 started tracking overwinter mortality in 5
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