Lisa B. Beever Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Conference July 15, 2010
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1 Lisa B. Beever Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Conference July 15, 2010
2 Climate Ready Estuaries Partnership with 15 NEPs and EPA Barnegat Bay NEP
3 Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan SG-Q: Build capacity for communities and their local leadership to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change through joint efforts.
4 Projects in support of SG-Q Regional Vulnerability Assessment ( ) Punta Gorda Adaptation Plan (CRE ) Vulnerability Assessment Lite ( ) CC Environmental Indicators (CRE ) Model Ordinances/Comp Plan (CRE ) Punta Gorda Comp Plan amend ( ) Salt Marsh Adaptation ( ) Seagrass response to SLR (2009) Lee County Resiliency Plan ( ) Conceptual Ecological Models (CRE ) Bonita Springs Adaptation Plan (Battelle pilot)
5 Existing Env. Indicators EPA Required 54 named 12 priority Currently filling gaps for 12. No SG indicators.
6 Pollutant Loads
7 General Process Inventory potential indicators (vulnerabilities) Survey scientists and interested people Select top indicators for further study Identify monitoring data sources, etc. Survey scientists and interested people Select top indicators Prepare one-page sheets to amend report Adopt through committee
8
9 172 Individual Candidate Indicators 20 Respondents
10 Respondents 13 Scientists (USGS, FDEP, FWC, WMD, Co, Mote, etc) 4 Citizens (Engineer, WMD outreach, Coast Guard, etc) 1 Resource Manager (CHEC) 1 City Councilman (Punta Gorda) 6 Pretest
11 Top Contenders Timing of seasonal activities (migration, hatching, production) Loss of Conservation Acreage due to sea level rise Ecologic changes at the coastline Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of coastal strand Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of mangroves Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of mud flats/sand bars Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of salt marshes Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of seagrass Habitat loss/degradation/migration (changes) of wetlands from retreating shorelines/conversion to open water Coastal erosion rates Drought intensity Flooding at coastlines Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation Relative sea-level rise Water temperature
12 15+3 Individual Candidate Indicators 7 (2 common) Respondents
13 Draft Climate Change Indicators Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation Sea-level rise Water temperature Phenology Coastal erosion rates (Habitat migration)
14 Changes to precipitation trend/patterns, including extreme precipitation Targets: Rolling 5-year average of 54 inches of rainfall per year (including the Bartow, Arcadia and Fort Myers stations). Annual number of events exceeding the 95 th percentile (0.42 inches) on a monthly and annual basis. Palmer Drought Index (PDI) >-2 and <2
15
16
17 Relative Sea Level Rise Targets: Limit relative sea-level rise to 1 inch per decade (plus or minus ½ inch).
18 Water Temperature Targets: Gaps for targets. Sources of data include : National Data Buoy Center Station VENF1 Venice sea temperatures between 53 and 91 o F. Volunteer data beginning 1998.
19 Time of day can give misleading results.
20 Phenology Citrus phenology longest period of record. Citrus flowers about a week after live oak. Regression analysis suggests that floral organ differentiation (requiring >650 accumulated hours below 19 o C) has shifted later by one day for every 3 years. Valiente, J. I., and L.G. Albrigo Modeling flowering date of sweet orange trees in central Florida based on historical weather. Proc. Intl. Soc. Citriculture, pages
21 Citrus Phenology-Lake Alfred Days from October 1 First Differentation
22 Bartow Temperatures Avg of Min Temps Avg of Max Temps
23 Avg Min Temp Citrus POR Average of Min Temps
24
25
26 Range Expansions? Longnose Killifish (Fundulus similis) Audubon Guide to Fishes 2002 Northern extent, Marco Island Found at Sanibel Causeway 2010 Florida White, male (Appias drusilla) Butterflies thru binocs, Glassberg et al 2000 Northern extent, Monroe County Found at Estero Bay 2010
27 Coastal Erosion Rates Targets: The average historical rate of erosion in west Florida is -0.8 ± 0.9 m/yr. Confounded by beach renourishment and other anthropogenic activities.
28 (Habitat Migration) Targets: Not selected through survey but salt marsh analysis may reveal useful indicator.
29
30 1953
31 2009
32 Landward Migration of seagrass in Charlotte Harbor East/West
33 Long Island Sound Initiating first survey to reduce number of indicators from ~32.
34 HABs DO Groundwater Salinity Pathogens/Human Pathogens/Shellfish Hydrogen Ions in sea TSS Invasive Species Benthic Index Phytoplankton Zooplankton Benthic Algae Lobster Crustaceans/Shell Shellfish (3 types) Finfish Marine Mammals/Turtles Tidal Flat Inundation/Diver y Salt Marsh Diversity Brackish/FW marsh sp shift Coastal Veg changes Cliff/Bluff Erosion Bird species declines Insect abundance Light/eelgrass SAV Species
35 Director: Lisa B. Beever, PhD, AICP Deputy Director: Liz Donley, esq. Communications Manager: Maran Hilgendorf Program Scientist: Judy Ott, MS 1926 Victoria Ave, Fort Myers FL / , Toll free 866/ Fax 239/ ,
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