Mortality from Smallpox: The 1780s Epidemic in the Hudson Bay Region

Transcription

1 Mortality from Smallpox: The 1780s Epidemic in the Hudson Bay Region Ann M. Carlos University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, CO and Frank D. Lewis Queen s University Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6 lewisf@econ.queensu.ca

2 Population counts of Alexander Henry (the elder) and Alexander Henry (the younger) - Plains Assiniboin Alexander Henry (the elder) Tents Alexander Henry (the younger) Tents Annual rate of growth 3.3 percent

3 Aboriginal Population ca North America (excl. Mexico) (thous) Conterminous U.S. (thous) Mooney (1928) 849 Kroeber (1939) 1, Driver (1969) 2,500 Ubelaker (1976) 2,171 Borah (1992) 4,400 Thornton and Thornton (1981) 1,845 Dobyns (1983) 18,022 13,691 Ubelaker (1988) 1,894 Borah (1992) 3,790 Milner and Chaplin (2010) 1,200-6,100

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5 December 11th (Cumberland House) Disagreeable news of many Indians dying, and the latter complain much for want of food. Indeed one of those that came from the southward does not seem to me to live long as she is troubled with violent pain in her back and much inclined to Vomiting, these inform me of seeing several Tents without anybody alive in them and some of the Dead not Buried December 4th (Hudson House) small pox is rageing all round us with great violence, sparing very few that take it, we have received the News of above 9 tents of Indians within here all dead, as for the Stone Indians there are very few if any left alive...

6 Approaches to the Smallpox Epidemic of Counts of smallpox deaths Mortality in other smallpox outbreaks Volume of trade before and after the epidemic Pre-epidemic population estimate based on carrying capacity

7 Reports of smallpox deaths: Hudson House and Cumberland House Date Reported by: Deaths Comment Number Tents Other Hudson House October 22 Indians 7 from barren ground October 29 Company 1 arrived alive in morning - died in afternoon November 1 Company 2 buried child, found an Indian man who died November 3 Company 1 buried female November 9 Company 1 burying a female November 13 Company 1 one male Indian child died November 22 Company 1 buried one young male Indian (possibly who died on 13th) November 25 Company 1 buried female child November 27 Indians 2 one man and 2 women left of two tents - 5 days journey November 29 Indians 5 four came - all that is left of 5 tents December 2 Indians Indians dieing in barren ground, bodies unburied-eagle Hills. December 10 Indians 20 Woman from Touchwood Hills, left 20 tents, most dead

8 Reports of smallpox deaths: Hudson House and Cumberland House Cumberland House deaths tents December 11 Indians several from southward, several tents with no one alive December 12 Company 1 January 6 Indians 2 from above - five tents reduced to three, several of them bad January 15 Indians 1 woman and child - left of one tent. Smallpox is raging, January 30 Company 1 buried man who was "hauled" on 25th sent 4 men to bury 4 Indians that pitched from here the January 31 Company 4 23rd February 5 Company 8 men returned after 4 day journey, found 8 dead at one tent place February 14 Company 4 returned from the Indians, buried 4 March 23 Indians 10 4 arrived from Swampy River, left 1 behind; all left of 10 tents

9 Table 1. Number of Smallpox Deaths based on reports to Hudson House and Cumberland House Hudson House Cumberland House Total Reported number of deaths by Company Indians Reported deaths by Indians based on tents Low estimate High estimate Total reported deaths Low estimate High estimate Deaths based on general statements Low estimate High estimate Total deaths Low estimate High estimate

10 Mortality rate implied by reports of deaths (1) Deaths (counts including tents) (2) Deaths (counts and general reports) Population 5,250 Mortality rate - percent (1) 8 11 (2) 12 18

11 Smallpox Case Fatality Rates in Unvaccinated Populations Period Case-fatality rate (percent) Adults a All London late 18th century 32 Hachijo-Jima, Japan U.S. (union army) Civil War 35 France (soldiers) Franco-Prussian War 18.7 Liverpool, England Tabriz, Iran Madras, India India, 6 States

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14 Trade Goods Sent from York Factory to Cumberland and Hudson House, 1781 and 1785 Trade Good awl blades kettles baize (yds) knives 1,830 1,818 bayonets lace (yds) 180 beads (lbs) looking glasses blankets needles brandy (gals) net lines 6 12 buttons pistols 10 cloth - various (yds) 1, powder (lbs) 1, combs powder horns 7 9 duffel (yds) rings 516 files rundlets fish hooks 160 scrapers 10 flints 3,000 2,000 shirts gartering (yds) 836 shot (lbs) 2,416 1,240 gun worms stockings 24 guns thimbles 24 hatchets thread 3 6 hats 8 21 tobacco (lbs) 2,348 2,007 hawk bells tobacco boxes ice chisels vermilion (lbs) Total - made beaver 11,769 9,401

15 The Value in Made Beaver of Trade Goods Sent from York Factory to Hudson House and Cumberland House, ,000 m a d e b e a v e r 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

16 Effect of the beaver population X = ax - bx 2 H H = E ⅔ X ⅓ If the beaver population, X, went up by 30 percent, and the harvest was the same, it follows that E fell be 12 percent. If the population grew at 1 percent from 1782 to 1788, it fell by 17 percent from 1781 to 1782.

17 Mortality and Carrying Capacity Assiniboin Tents Number Population in ,800 (Alexander Henry the Younger) Population in ,800 (1 % annual growth)

18 Daily requirement (adult males) Calories (in winter) 4,500 5,000 Flesh (annual average) 4 pounds Meat from large game 1.5 kg 5 kg (family) Annual requirement (family) 1,800 kg Annual requirement moose 900 kg

19 Density of moose:.30 / km 2 (actual).50 / km 2 (capacity) Sustainable harvest of a moose population of 1,000 at capacity: 22,000 50,000 kg (live weight) We assume: 40,000 kg Dressed weight to live weight: 37.5 percent Edible tissue: 15,000 kg 1,000 moose (capacity) feeds 15,000/900 = 17 families 2,000 km 2 support 17 families or 85 persons. Population density: one person per 24 km 2

20 Assiniboin Population: Pre and Post Epidemic Assiniboine hunting area 200,000 km 2 Pre-epidemic population: 200, ,300 Post epidemic: 6,800 Mortality: 18 percent

21 Conclusion 1. Counts of deaths percent 2. Case fatality rates and incidence percent 3. Trade records 17 percent 4. Carrying Capacity 18 percent Evidence of catastrophic mortality: Mitchell Omam