Transition from Analogue to Digital Radio Broadcasting An overview of trends

Transcription

1 Transitin frm Analgue t Digital Radi Bradcasting An verview f trends ITU/NBTC Wrkshp 16 December 2014 Peter Walp Internatinal Telecmmunicatin Unin Internatinal Telecmmunicatin Unin

2 Presentatin Overview 1. Radmap fr Digital Radi Bradcasting What is a radmap? Radmap verview fr Thailand 2. Thai Radi Market & Abrad 3. Digital Radi System Radi is nt TV Transmissin Systems 2

3 ITU Funded in 1865 Leading UN Special Agency fr ICTs HQs in Switzerland Three sectrs (ITU-T, ITU-D, and ITU-R) 4 Reginal Offices & 7 Area Offices 192 Member States and 750 Sectr Members ITU-T ITU s standards-making effrts are its best-knwn and ldest activity. ITU-D Established t help spread equitable, sustainable and affrdable access t ICT. ITU-R Managing the internatinal radi-frequency spectrum and satellite rbit resurces 3

4 1. Radmap fr DRB 4

5 1. Radmap fr DRB what is a Radmap? Phase 1 develpment Phase 2 planning Phase 3 implementatin Phase 4 finalisatin/ administratin Functinal building blcks Functinal building blcks Functinal building blcks Functinal building blcks Decisins & activities Decisins & activities Decisins & activities Decisins & activities Surce: ITU A Radmap is cmprehensive set f decisins and activities rganised in a functinal & time rder A Radmap is develped in a jined effrt and prvides: Cnsensus n requirements & slutins Help fr crdinating activities Help fr frecasting timelines 5

6 1. Radmap fr DRB what is a Radmap? A. Plicy & Regulatin 2.1. Technlgy & Standards Regulatin 2.4. Natinal Spectrum Plan 2.2. Licensing Framewrk 2.5. Assignment Prcedures 2.3. ITU R Regulatins 2.6. License Terms & Cnditins 2.7. Lcal Permits (building & planning) 2.8. Media Permits & Authrizatins Radmap functinal framewrk: 5 layers 2.9. Business Mdels & Public Financing Digital Dividend Between 3 t 13 functinal blcks per Natinal Telecm, Bradcast & Media Acts Law enfrcement & executin Cmmunicatin t cnsumers & industry layer Functinal blcks same B. ASO Transitin Mdels Organizatinal Structure & Entities ASO Planning & Milestnes Infra & Spectrum Cmpatibility ASO Cmmunicatin Plan as fr TV but: Market dynamics C. Market & Business Develpment 3.1. Custmer Insight & Research 3.2. Custmer Prpsitin D. Netwrk 4.2. Design 4.1. Technlgy Principles & & Standards Netwrk Applicatin Architecture 4.7. Shared & Cmmn Design Principles 4.8 Transmitting equipment Availability 3.3. Receiver Availability Cnsideratins 4.3. Netwrk Planning 4.9 Netwrk Rllut Planning 3.4. Business Planning 4.4. System Parameters 3.5. End Cnsumer Supprt 4.5. Radiatin Characteristics 4.6. Netwrk Interfacing different Applied Technlgies different N ASO/DD alternative allcatins (yet) Surce: ITU 6

7 1. Radmap fr DRB what is a Radmap? By Phase Radmap Phases Regulatr Plicy & Regulatins DR plicy develpment DR licensing and regulatins DR plicy ntified licenses assigned License administratin All statins ntified Netwrk Operatrs Market & Business Develpment DRB netwrk Prepare netwrk & service deplyment Licenses assigned & call fr supplier bids Plan & Deply netwrks & services Start deplyment First DR service n air All statins deplyed Timeline Surce: ITU 7

8 1. Radmap fr DRB Thai Radmap verview DR radmap cmprises Plan A and B fr respectively shrt and lng term Plan A is addressing the shrt term: Launching Trial services in 2014 DAB+ in VHF Band III services in 10 mst ppulated cities (with pp target f 40%) Preparing and assigning regular licenses Plan B is addressing the lng term: Regular licensing at the mment when VHF Band III ASO is knwn (and DAB uptake is sufficient) Matching demand and supply acrss all available platfrms Radi ASO (after BMP planning hrizn ) 8

9 1. Radmap fr DRB Thai Radmap verview Digital Radi Listening (% f all listening) Migrating t digital shuld include all platfrms f digital listening Surce: WrldDMB An all-platfrm view facilitates: Mre pssibilities t match supply and demand Radi ASO in the future 9

10 1. Radmap fr DRB Thai Radmap verview By Phase Plan A Plan B NBTC Preparatins Trial 1. DR plicy develpment 2. DR Trial licensing and regulatins DR plicy ntified Trial licenses assigned 3. DR Mnitring (netwrk, services & receiver uptake) Regular Licensing 4. DR regular licensing and regulatins Regular DR licensing ntified 5. DR regular license assignment Regular DR licenses assigned Prep Prepare netwrk & service deplyment e Trial finished Netwrk Operatrs Trial Regular peratins Deply netwrks & services Trial services launched Operate netwrks & services e e Prepare additinal netwrks Cntinue perating netwrks Deply add. netwrks Surce: ITU/NBTC 10

11 2. Thai Radi Market & Abrad 11

12 2. Thai Radi Market & Abrad Radi Reach as Percentage f Ppulatin 120 Thai radi trends in line with internatinal trends Surce: AC Nielsen 12

13 2. Thai Radi Market & Abrad 90% Place f Radi Listening (% f all listening) Mst listening at hme and wrk. Nt in the car! 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% At Hme In Car At Wrk Elsewhere Surce: AC Nielsen 13

14 2. Thai Radi Market & Abrad Media Advertising ver Years (in k THB) Stable trend in radi advertising incme, n significant grwth expected Surce: NBTC Fr a CAGR f 3.3% expected 5.1% GDP grwth expected in same perid Shift t Internet advertising 14

15 2. Thai Radi Market & Abrad 500,000 Glbal Media ADEX (in millin USD) Glbal frecasts shw stable radi Ad revenues and shift twards Internet advertising 450, , , , , , , ,000 50, Vide Games Cnsumer magazines Out f hme Digital/Internet Cinema Newspapers Audi Televisin Surce: McKinsey, 2013 Glbal Media reprt Fr a CAGR f near 0% expected Surce: PwC Glbal M&E Outlk ( ) 15

16 2. Thai Radi Market & Abrad 140% 120% Mbile uptake in Thailand Mbile will be imprtant fr radi distributin as fixed bradband ffers little.. 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Surce: NBTC Mbile Penetratin Pst Paid Pre Paid 3 ut 5 phnes sld = smartphne Bradband penetratin < 7% (2013) and leveling Last 5 years FX line penetratin declined (7.2 t 6.2%) 16

17 2. Thai Radi Market & Abrad Lng Tail f Advertising Incme per Service Incme disparity extremely large between tp 10 (in BKK) and the rest Surce: EBU BKK FM Tp-10 statins take 3b f 5 b THB (60%) >7000 FM/AM services r bradcasters 17

18 3. Digital Radi Systems 18

19 3. Digital Radi Systems radi is nt TV Digital radi business case mre challenging Installed base f analgue receivers much larger than fr TV Analgue receivers have t be replaced Radi market is FTA n receiver subsidies ARPU is much lwer than fr TV N Digital Dividend fr Radi ASO Business case much harder t make viable Simulcast perid lng Digital receiver retail prices are critical 19

20 3. Digital Radi Systems transmissin systems System VDO/ Image On mb devices On mb phnes Band Cmmercial peratins DMB/DAB+ VHF III Selectin f transmissin system critical fr receiver availability and price DRM LF, MF, SW, FM, VHF T-DMB VHF III part f TV ISDB-Tsb TV bands part f TV ISDB-Tmm VHF III, etc part f TV HD/IBOC MF, FM Surce: ITU TV systems lack Radi functinality: Raming between FM/DRB Mute when TA TV raster may be different? 20

21 3. Digital Radi Systems N universal system and they all d the jb Nne f the 6 transmissin systems are universally applied (in cntrast with FM/AM) Technical perfrmance f mst systems the same DMB/DAB+ ffers mre capacity per multiplex fr the same number f services less OPEX & CAPEX In selecting the standard the fllwing aspects shuld be cnsidered: Available frequency bands (in Thailand) Service ffering (incl. #f services, audi quality, PAD functinality & enhanced services) Receiver requirements 21