The 2009 «indian summer» of world economy
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1 The 2009 «indian summer» of world economy CyclOpe European leading research Institute on commodity markets Professeur Philippe Chalmin September 2009
2 September 2009 Sun shines again. on equity markets. on commodities. for the real economy. thanks to emerging countries. and US out of recession Spring or Indian Summer?
3 World equity markets are betting for the end of recession 180 MONDE (39 Places) en dollar
4 And it s especially true in Shanghai 400 (Shanghai B =100) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
5 Same story for commodities 500 janvier 1988 =
6 Back to their 2007 level janvier 1988 = 100 Ensemble hors métaux précieux et pétrole Ensemble y c. métaux précieux et pétrole J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
7 Thanks to a weakening US dollar 1 =... $ J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
8 Oil back at $ 72.5 a barrel (August average) 130 en $ par baril PETROLE BRUT (Brent 1er terme)
9 Thanks to some discipline by OPEP, Nigerian problems and demand en $ par baril (Brent 1er terme) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
10 Non ferrous metals are up too janvier 1988 = J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
11 Like copper en $ par tonne (LME au comptant) 3000 CUIVRE
12 Thanks to China and some good news from USA en $ par tonne (LME au comptant) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
13 Steel prices are still low but with a better ratio of capacity utilisation ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE PRICE (US $/tonne)
14 Wheat «suffers» from very good 2009 crop Euros par quintal Cours mondial (Chicago) Prix de marché (France)
15 But soybeans benefit of Chinese demand $ par boisseau (prix au comptant) J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
16 And sugar was the summer s star cents de $ par livre
17 Dry bulk rates have rebounded 1000 au 4 janvier INDICE BFI/BDI
18 Thanks to Chinese demand for Capesize 1000 au 4 janvier INDICE BFI/BDI J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
19 . World economy is right now out of recession. thanks to some emerging countries. but not all. China Q %. India Q2 + 6,1 %. Russia Q2-10,9 %
20 Chinese industrial production is back on its 10 % a year path : more than 50 millions tonnes of steel produced in july! China : Industrial Production 25 Variations sur un an en % (mm3)
21 In the US, the worst of the real estate crisis seems over : prices are rising again U.S. : Construction 2300 Milliers par an
22 The economy loses less jobs U.S. : Job creation Non agricultural sector 600 Milliers
23 And the ISM index (52.9 on August 31) is back towards expansion U.S. : ISM Manufacturing index 65 %
24 In Europe, German entrepreneurs are slightly more optimistic Germany : IFO Survey Business climate =
25 And French house holds are more doubt ful France : consumer confidence 10 (soldes des réponses en %)
26 GDP grorwth in the second quartet go :. from the best China India to average Germany + 1 France + 1 Japan United States - 1. bad United King dom Italy - 6. and the worst Russia Mexico - 11 Estonia Latvia Lituania
27 What to expect :. Spring. Growth in China and India. US gets out of recession in Q3. Oil at $ 70 is a gift for producing countries. The end of the financial crisis?. Winter. Europe : so much unemployment. Public deficits : who pays?. A weak dollar. Transition economies in crisis A real Indian summer : world economy is out of recession but recovery will be a long and painful process.
28 What to expect :. Spring. Growth in China and India. US gets out of recession in Q3. Oil at $ 70 is a gift for producing countries. The end of the financial crisis?. Winter. Europe : so much unemployment. Public deficits : who pays?. A weak dollar. Transition economies in crisis A real Indian summer : world economy is out of recession but recovery will be a long and painful process.
29 What to expect :. Spring. Growth in China and India. US gets out of recession in Q3. Oil at $ 70 is a gift for producing countries. The end of the financial crisis?. Winter. Europe : so much unemployment. Public deficits : who pays?. A weak dollar. Transition economies in crisis A real Indian summer : world economy is out of recession but recovery will be a long and painful process.
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