Caroline Freund Presentation at the IBC Tel Aviv December 7, 2015
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1 Caroline Freund Presentation at the IBC Tel Aviv December 7,
2 (How Much) Does Inequality Cost Us? Recent focus on extreme wealth Is it bad irrespective of how it is made? Cronies or Creators Large firms move economies Allocative efficiency Growth and jobs Individuals are behind these firms Apple (Jobs), Microsoft (Gates), Zara (Ortega), Alibaba (Ma), Tata (Tata), Foxconn (Gou), Serum (Poonwalla) 2
3 Growth in Extreme Wealth total real net worth, billions 1996 USD percent of World s billionaires are now from emerging markets. Given trends, by 2025 more than half will be from the South World Advanced Economies Emerging Markets 3
4 Part 1: Who are the Superrich? Inheritors Self-made Company founders Executives Politically connected/resource based Finance/real estate 4
5 Self-made in the South 5
6 Founders Founded a company Non-resource Non-privatization Non-finance/real estate Non-license No corruption charge
7 Sources of Wealth Share of billionaires Region/source of wealth Emerging markets Self-made Company founder (nonfinance) Owner or executive Financial sector Resource related, privatization related, and politically connected Inherited Advanced economies Self-made Company founder (nonfinance) Owner or executive 9 8 Financial sector Resource related, privatization related, and politically connected Inherited
8 Part 2: Large Firms are Good for Growth 8
9 Large firms are good 1: Rich European countries have more employment in large firms percent Large firm share employment Value added large firms Source: Eurostat
10 percent Large firms are good 1: Rich European countries value added and employment shares are closer Suggestive of allocative inefficiency Large firm share employment Value added large firms Bartelsman, Haltiwanger and Scarpetta (2013) measure covariance b/w productivity and size in US industry: US is more efficient than in the United Kingdom, Germany and France. In addition, the covariance between size and productivity was near zero (or negative) at transition in Eastern Europe and has since increased, i.e. allocative efficiency has improved 10 sharply.
11 Large firms are good 2: Growth in the US is driven by large firms gdp growth 6.0 growth in share of employment GDP Growth Growth in large firms' share of employment -0.8 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Share of large firms increased from 49 to 53 percent over period. 11
12 Large firms are good 3: Manufacturing employment & large firms percent number 60 of employees % firms %employment % firms %employment China 2004 India 2007 Source: van Ark et al Martin, Nataraj and Harrison (2014) find dereservation in India led to a 7 percent increase in employment, as the better firms grew large. 12
13 Wealth and Large Firms go Together country share of billionaires (percent) United States 10 Russia Brazil India China Japan country share of Global 2000 firms (percent) 13
14 Where there are more Mega Firms there is more Extreme Wealth percent BRIC share of fortune global 500 BRIC share of billionaires BRIC countries include Brazil, Russia, China and India 14
15 Part 3: Extreme Wealth is Part of Development billionaires per 100 million, log scale GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2011 international $), log scale billionaire density smoothed line 15
16 US in the at the turn of last century and the BRICS this century India China South Africa Russia Brazil 16
17 US in the at the turn of last century and the BRICS this century US growth surged 17
18 China s Growth Dominates US 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 US China US took another 20 years to get there. 18
19 Wealth is Growing Faster than Income in the North but not the South 19
20 Coming January
21 Brazil BRICs Split share of billionaires share of billionaires India share of billionaires share of billionaires Self-made wealth Self-made wealth company founder company founder owner or executive owner or executive financial sector financial sector politically connected politically connected Inherited wealth Inherited wealth Number of billionaires 6 65 Number of billionaires 5 56 Russia China Self-made wealth Self-made wealth company founder company founder owner or executive owner or executive 0 25 financial sector financial sector politically connected politically connected Inherited wealth 0 0 Inherited wealth Number of billionaires Number of billionaires
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