Economic Outlook for 2016
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1 Economic Outlook for 2016 Arturo Bris Professor of Finance, IMD Director, IMD World Competitiveness Center Yale International Center for Finance European Corporate Governance Institute 2015 IMD International. Not to be used or reproduced without permission. IMD
2 Quizz Which country has achieved positive GDP growth in all but one years since 1960? China Colombia Germany Nigeria USA IMD
3 Quizz Which country has achieved positive GDP growth in all but one years since 1960? China Colombia Germany Nigeria USA IMD
4 Richest nations: Gross National Income per Capita Only 2 countries consistently in top 10 IMD
5 June 21 st, 2015 IMD
6 Quizz One of these countries was not among the top 10 richest countries (by GDP per capita) in 1978 Japan Libya Saudi Arabia UK Germany IMD
7 Quizz Sorry, wrong question Only one of these countries was among the top 10 richest countries (by GDP per capita) in 1978 Japan Libya Saudi Arabia UK Germany IMD
8 Quizz Sorry, wrong question Only one of these countries was among the top 10 richest countries (by GDP per capita) in 1978 Japan Libya Saudi Arabia UK Germany IMD
9 August 25 th, 2015 IMD
10 GDP Growth Actual and Expected IMD
11 Growth: Back to Normal Financial Times, June 11 th 2015 IMD
12 The Requirements of a Competitive System: Self-Assessment 1. A Good Government Does your country have a government which: Enacts/Enforces regulation which promotes business creation, Focuses on job creation as priority #1, Opens the country to trade Enjoys a healthy financial position Is stable? IMD
13 Competitiveness: A confusing concept The Rajoy government belongs squarely in the second camp: it slashed public spending in the middle of a harsh recession, and pushed through a series of deeply unpopular reforms to raise the competitiveness of its export sector. In a strangely masochistic inversion of political practice, government officials hailed every fall in Spanish wages they have slipped in nine out of 14 quarters since Mr Rajoy took office as a sign of progress. Financial Times, October 22 nd 2015 IMD
14 The Requirements of a Competitive System: Self-Assessment 2. Investing in people Does government policy provides resources so that: Education and Health Systems are of high quality, Infrastructure is reliable and supports business, Fosters innovation, Improves quality of life for people? IMD
15 BRICS MINT? The Economist, November 2009 The Economist, September 2013 IMD
16 Countries require good basic infrastructure Number of Ikea Stores per Capita IMD 2015 World Competitive eness Ranking Source: IMD World Competitiveness Center The size of the bubble indicates the number of stores in the country IMD
17 The Requirements of a Competitive System: Self-Assessment 3. A value-enhancing business culture Do enterprises in your country: Have access to financing, even if small, Do they enjoy a healthy financial position Do have good governance systems, Are productive and efficient, Are managed by executives with the right values and attitudes? IMD
18 Croatia Source: The Economist IMD
19 The government does not create jobs, the private sector does IMD
20 The big cloud: Terrorism Baghdad, Iraq October 5, 2015: 57 dead Ankara, Turkey October 11, 2015: 95 dead Maiduguri / Yola, Nigeria October 14, 2015: 42 dead Sinai, Egypt October 31, 2015: 224 dead Beirut, Lebanon November 12, 2015: 47 dead Paris, France November 13, 2015: 129 dead Source: several online news outlets IMD
21 Markets Today IMD
22 The big questions: Innovation Does innovation create jobs? Source: The Economist, January 2014 IMD
23 Growth and Innovation Innovation increases income inequality A futuristic world with: Wealthy, successful and retired entrepreneurs A highly-skilled, productive middle class A poor, less educated, unemployed and subsidized low class IMD
24 The big questions: Trade Treaties Trade openness is only advantageous in late stages of economic development Trade benefits the big country Protectionism and economic strategy: Grossman and Helpman (2001): A free-trade agreement is most likely to politically viable exactly when it would be socially harmful. IMD
25 The big opportunity: Talent Management IMD
26 The big opportunity: Talent Management IMD
27 IMD
28 IMD
29 IMD
30 IMD
31 IMD
32 IMD
33 Thank IMD
34 WCY 2015 Country WCY 2014 Change WCY 2015 Country 1 USA 1-31 Estonia China Hong Kong France Singapore 3-33 Poland Switzerland Kazakhstan Canada Chile Luxembourg Portugal Norway Spain Denmark Italy Sweden Mexico Germany Turkey Taiwan Philippines UAE Indonesia Qatar Latvia Malaysia India Netherlands Russia Ireland Slovak Republic New Zealand Romania Australia Hungary United Kingdom Slovenia Finland Greece Israel Colombia China Mainland Jordan Belgium South Africa Iceland Peru Korea Rep Bulgaria Austria Brazil Japan Mongolia N/A 28 Lithuania Croatia Czech Republic Argentina Thailand Ukraine Venezuela 60-1 IMD WCY 2014 Change
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