VDMA China Management Meeting. Construction Equipment and Building Material Machinery. Tianjin, 21 May VDMA Sebastian Popp
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1 VDMA China Management Meeting Construction Equipment and Building Material Machinery Tianjin, 21 May 2015 VDMA Sebastian Popp
2 Agenda Welcome and introduction Economic situation of the industry» Sebastian Popp Round table discussion on economic scenario Standardization and work safety requirements» Recent developments in safety standards Shang Haibo, Secretary of SAC/TC 334» VDMA China activities on technical and standardization work Zhao Haina, Standardization Project Manager, VDMA China» Q&A Session VDMA China Services and Activities VDMA Sebastian Popp page 2 27/05/2015
3 Turnover of German Manufacturers Slightly above levels of 2011 Construction Equipment Building Material Machinery in EUR bn, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 3 27/05/2015
4 World: Construction Equipment Sales 2014/2013 Minimal world sales growth of 0.2% North America: +19% Europe: +15% Russia: -37% China: -19% Latin America: -16% Africa: -7% other Asia: +/-0% India: -13% Oceania: +3% Units of earthmoving equipment, source: ISC statistics VDMA Sebastian Popp page 4 27/05/2015
5 Construction Equipment: Economic Scenario Order intake remained strong in the first quarter 210 Incoming orders Turnover Rolling 12-month averages and original values, index 2010=100, last data point: March 2015, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 5 27/05/2015
6 Construction Equipment: Incoming Orders and Turnover First quarter orders were close to the strong Q Incoming Orders Turnover 25% 20% 15% 10% 15% 5% 0% -5% - 4% -10% -15% Building Construction Earthmoving Road Construction Total January-March 2015/2014, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 6 27/05/2015
7 Building Construction Equipment Positive trend seems to materialize further 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Order intake compared to previous year in %, rolling six-month averages, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 7 27/05/2015
8 Earthmoving Equipment Slight but not alarming declines 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Order intake compared to previous year in %, rolling six-month averages, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 8 27/05/2015
9 Road Equipment Sector remains stably strong 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Order intake compared to previous year in %, rolling six-month averages, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 9 27/05/2015
10 Germany: Construction Equipment Sales 8% first quarter growth confirms stable 2015 forecast (+/-0%) Units of earthmoving equipment sales, 20-years average, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 10 27/05/2015
11 Construction Equipment: Sales in Europe Heterogenous development across product groups 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Earthmoving equipment Road equipment Concrete equipment Tower cranes Hydraulic breakers January-March 2015/2014, source: CECE VDMA Sebastian Popp page 11 27/05/2015
12 Building Material Machinery Orders still do not show much momentum 160 Incoming orders Turnover Rolling 12-month averages and original values, index 2010=100, last data point: March 2015, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 12 27/05/2015
13 Building Material Machinery First quarter was still negative Order intake Turnover 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Domestic International Total January-March 2015/2014, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 13 27/05/2015
14 Economic Cycle Building Material Machinery Modest upward trend continues 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Order intake compared to previous year in %, rolling six-month averages, source: VDMA VDMA Sebastian Popp page 14 27/05/2015
15 Construction Equipment Sales in China Back to pre-boom levels rolling 6m av original Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar 15 unit sales in China, index 2010=100, source: ISC statistics VDMA Sebastian Popp page 15 27/05/2015
16 Sales in World Regions North America is back, China is in troubles Q % 12% 7% 34% 17% 11% 23% Western Europe Eastern Europe Russia Turkey India China 5% 14% 5% 20% 8% 42% 17% Other Asia Oceania Africa Latin America 17% North America based on unit sales, source: ISC statistics VDMA Sebastian Popp page 16 27/05/2015
17 German and Chinese Exports Compared The gap is getting larger Mining Equipment Building Material Machinery Construction Equipment Mining Equipment Construction Equipment Building Material Machinery CN 8 6 DE in EUR bn, source: German Federal Statistics Bureau, National Bureau of Statistics VDMA Sebastian Popp page 17 27/05/2015
18 The European Construction Industry Finally, return to modest growth value 2014 (in EUR bn) Germany 285 1,8% 0,2% France 200-0,4% 1,8% United Kingdom 177 5,1% 3,5% Italy 163 1,1% 2,5% Spain 63 1,8% 3,6% Netherlands 60 3,4% 3,5% Switzerland 53-0,7% 1,4% Norway 46 3,9% 2,5% Poland 44 7,1% 6,2% Belgium 39 0,0% 1,5% Europe ,1% 2,2% 2015/ /2015-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Construction industry output against previous year in %, source: Euroconstruct, November 2014 VDMA Sebastian Popp page 18 27/05/2015
19 The European Construction Industry Noticeable improvement after the turnaround in 2014 Residential Non-residential Civil engineering Construction sector 5% % % % % change against previous year in %, construction sector output in EUR bn, source: Euroconstruct, November 2014 VDMA Sebastian Popp page 19 27/05/2015
20 The Chinese Construction Industry Growth has become significantly slower construction output +16% +16% +10% fixed asset investments +19% +19% +15% investments in road construction -1% +10% +11% investments in railway construction +13% +2% +12% real estate investments +15% +19% +10% investments in mining sector +13% +10% +1% nominal/real percentage changes, various sources VDMA Sebastian Popp page 20 27/05/2015
21 World: Construction Industry India with the highest growth forecast growth forecast ( ) Construction Investments volume (in EUR bn) share of world total per capita (PPP) construction share of GDP China 6,2% ,3% ,2% USA 3,5% ,9% ,5% Japan -4,1% 304 4,6% ,2% Germany 1,0% 286 4,4% ,3% India 6,9% 244 3,7% ,4% France 0,1% 200 3,1% ,4% Canada 1,7% 187 2,9% ,3% UK 4,1% 177 2,7% ,0% Australia 5,9% 165 2,5% ,2% Italy 1,1% 163 2,5% ,5% Brazil 1,9% 148 2,3% 981 8,7% South Korea 1,4% 145 2,2% ,2% Russia -1,0% 135 2,1% ,5% Mexico 4,3% 128 2,0% ,2% Indonesia 6,8% 126 1,9% ,3% Top 15 3,8% ,0% ,6% World 3,9% % ,4% source: CRESME VDMA Sebastian Popp page 21 27/05/2015
22 Summary: Industry Outlook Short and medium term prospects German equipment market stable on high absolute levels France with further negative trend Overall, Europe could see more growth in 2015 China seems to see the 4 th consecutive year of decline India is expected to see modest growth after a dry spell Middle East (Saudi Arabia and UAE) strong despite political tensions North America still with good prospects Latin America remains weak Sales forecast German manufacturers 2015, +/-0% VDMA Sebastian Popp page 22 27/05/2015
23 Thank you very much Thank you! for your attention! VDMA Sebastian Popp
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