WHEAT FORUM. 31 October Nico Hawkins General Manager

Transcription

1 WHEAT FORUM 31 October 2018 Nico Hawkins General Manager

2 Wheat Supply & Demand (National & International) Marketing season SAGIS NAMC International (GMR) Marketing year Final 2017/18 '000t Oct - Sep Projection 2018/19 '000t Estimate 2017/18 'Mil ton Jul - Jun Projection 2018/19 'Mil ton Opening stocks Production Imports Total use (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (b) (a) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Including producer w ithdraw als, seed and end users (SAGIS: t, NAMC: t) Source: SAGIS - 25 Oct 2018, NAMC: S&DEC - 30 Oct 2018, GMR - 29 Sep 2018

3 Wheat Production, Retention & Deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries 2018/19 * 2017/ /17 Ton Ton Ton CEC Production Less Retentions Total available SAGIS Deliveries Difference * 2018/19: 1 Oct - 19 Sep '18 Source: Sagis and CEC

4 Wheat: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Ton WHEAT: CEC ESTIMATE vs. SAGIS DELIVERIES CEC (Crop Est.) Prod deliveries (SAGIS) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Yield 4.00 S&DEC /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Progr. 18/19 Proj. 0.00

5 Wheat Imports & Exports (Raw material) Ton WHEAT (RAW MATERIAL) : IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Progr. 18/19 Proj.

6 Wheat Imports: Major origin of imports for RSA (2017/18: 1 Oct Sep 18) RSA: Wheat Imports per Country /18- Other % Argentinia % Romania % Latvia % Russia % Total: t Ukraine % Lithuania % Germany %

7 Wheat Imports for Other Countries (2017/18: 1 Oct Sep 18) Wheat Imports for other countries /18 - Germany % Argentinia % Lithuania % Latvia % Russia % Poland % Other % Total: t

8 Wheat Imports per Harbour (2017/18: 1 Oct Sep 18) Wheat Weekly Imports per Harbour East London % Durban % Port Elizabeth % Cape Town % Richards Bay % Total Imports per Harbour: t

9 Wheat Imports & Exports (2017/18: 1 Oct Sep 18) Wheat Oct '17 - Sep '18 Oct '16 - Sep '17 Total Imports (RSA + Other) t t Number of Ships Number of Countries Number of Ports offloaded 5 4 Harbour facilities visited Average per ship t t Largest ship Liberty Island - Russia t Flag Gangos - Romania t Smallest ship Marsk Vilnius - USA 296 t Kingsrest - USA t Bussiest month October '17 24 February '17 20

10 Wheat Exports: Major export destinations (2017/18: 1 Oct Sep 18) Zimbabwe % Wheat Exports per country Namibia % /18 - Swaziland % Botswana % Zambia % Lesotho % Total exports: t

11 Wheat Imports & Exports: Weekly Current season (2018/19: Progr. 1 Oct Oct 18) RSA: Wheat Imports per Country /19- Russia % Canada % Total: t 2018/19 Exports 1 Oct - 19 Oct '

12 3 000 Wheat: Consumption Ton WHEAT: PROCESSED Human consumption Animal feed S&DEC /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Proj.

13 Wheat: Stocks Ton WHEAT: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending stock S&DEC /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Proj.

14 Wheat: 2018/19 Marketing year (Progr. 1 Oct 19 Oct 17) Ton WHEAT: 2018/19 MARKETING YEAR (1 Oct - 19 Oct '18) S&DEC S&DEC S&DEC S&DEC CEC Prod. Deliveries Imports Processed Exports

15 Price movement

16 2018/03/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/ /07/ /07/ /08/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /10/08 Wheat: Prices SAFEX nearby contract R/ton SAFEX Wheat Prices - Future prices (Dec 2018)

17 Wheat: Price movements Comparison SAFEX (Dec and Mar contracts) 2018/10/23 % Month 2018/09/25 % Year 2017/10/23 Price on Month Price on Year Price (a) Dec Mar Source: SAFEX

18 Wheat: Price movements Comparison KCBT (Dec and Mar contracts) 2018/10/23 % Month 2018/09/25 % Year 2017/10/23 Price on Month Price on Year Price Dec Mar Source: KCBT

19 Wheat: Price movements Indicative Import parity prices US US Argentine EU Germany Russia HRW DNS Trigo Pan B quality 12.50% $/t $/t $/t $/t $/t FOB value Freight rates Insurance (0.3% of FOB) COST, INSURANCE & FREIGHT (CIF) $/t Converted to R/t R/$ Exchange rate on: 2018/10/ R/t R/t R/t R/t R/t COST, INSURANCE & FREIGHT (CIF) Financing cost COST, INSURANCE, FREIGHT & FINANCING Discharging cost Durban (Mainly spout method) Import tariff on Wheat FREE ON RAIL (FOR) 2018/10/23 Durban harbour Railage cost Durban to Randfontein Delivered Durban to Randfontein (2018/10/23) SAFEX spot price (2018/10/23) Delivered Durban to Randfontein: ( 2017/10/24)

20 Wheat: Price movements Indicative Export parity prices US HRW US DNS 14% Wheat Wheat 2018/10/23 Gulf PNW Oct '18 Oct '18 $/t $/t FOB Gulf value SA fob price R/$ Exchange rate on: 2018/10/ R/t R/t FOB Gulf value Marketing costs: Financing (Prime rate 10.25% - 30 days) Railage: Randfontein Durban harbour Loading costs: Durban Harbour (Mainly spout method) Export realisation Randfontein SAFEX spot price (2018/10/23) Export realisation Randfontein (2017/10/23)

21 Wheat: Price movements SARS FOB prices Previous years : Oct Sep (2017/18: Progr. 1 Oct Aug 18) Wheat - Other /18 Progr. Oct-Aug 2016/ /16 Imports Total value of imports Value per ton Source: SARS Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) FOB R/Ton SAGIS Imports (11 months) t

22 Wheat Imports: SARS FOB prices per country: Wheat Other: (2017/18: Progr. 1 Oct Aug 18) Country Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/ton Argentina Canada Czech Republic Germany Ghana India Latvia Lithuania Namibia Nigeria Poland Romania Russian Federation South Africa Ukraine United States Unknown Total Progr. Oct '17 - Aug '18 Source: SARS

23 Wheat Exports: SARS FOB prices per country: Wheat Other: (2017/18: Progr. 1 Oct Aug 18) Country Ton FOB value R'000 FOB Rand/ton Botswana Canada Lesotho Malawi Mozambique Namibia Swaziland United Arab Emirates Zimbabwe Total Progr. Oct '17 - Aug '18 Source: SARS

24 Products

25 Wheat Products (Manufactured, Imported & Exported) (2017/18: Progr. 1 Sep Aug months) Marketing year: Sep Aug 2018 Wheaten Products Manufactured Imported Exported % of Total Tons Manufactured Cake Flour Self-Raising Flour White Bread Flour Brown Bread Flour Other Flour (Industrial) Whole Wheat Meal Bran Semolina Total Whole Wheat Milled Whole wheat milled = Processed for human consumption Diffs milled and products Processed for gristing Product exports % Bran 20

26 Wheaten Products: Per Capita Consumption (12 months: Sep 17 Aug 18) Per capita consumption Wheaten products Panbaked bread Panbaked bread Total Maize products Oilseeds products 12 months (1 Sep '17-31 Aug '18) Ton Ton Units Ton Ton Manufactured Imports Exports Total "consumed" Total population Kg Kg Units Kg Kg Per capita consumption

27 1948/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /17 Panbaked bread vs Wheat Processed: Historic Info 1948/ / Bread: Panbaked bread (Kg) versus Wheat Processed (Kg) White bread Brown bread Total Panbaked bread Wheat processed T on T on T on T on T on T on T on T on 0 I:Wheaten Prod Hist Info

28 1949/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /16 Historic Info: Per capita use of whole wheat & pan baked bread (1949/ /18) Per capita use of whole wheat & pan baked bread Bread units Bread Kg/head Whole wheat Kg/head I:Wheaten Prod Hist Info - Maize: Maize Prod Hist Info

29 1949/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /16 Historic Info: Whole Wheat vs Maize Whole Grain 1949/ /18 Kg/head 120 Per capita whole Wheat & Maize whole grain consumption Whole wheat Kg/head Maize Whole Grain Kg/head I:Wheaten Prod Hist Info - Maize: Maize Prod Hist Info

30 Wheaten Products : Bread Flour (Ton) (2017/18: Progr. 1 Sep Aug months) Other Flour (Industrial) % Bread Flour -Sep '17 to Aug '18- - Ton - Whole wheat % White % Brown % Total: Bread Flour: ton

31 Wheaten Products: Pan baked bread (Units) (Progr. Sep 17 Aug 18: 12 months) Pan baked bread manufactured Marketing year: Sep '17 - Aug '18 (12 months) % of Total Units WHITE BREAD 400g g g Other White Bread (Total Units) BROWN BREAD 400g g g Other Brown Bread (Total Units) WHOLE WHEAT 400g g g Other Whole Wheat (Total Units) OTHER 400g g g Other Other (Total Units) Total

32 Wheaten Products: Pan baked bread per type (Progr. Sep 17 Aug 18: 11 months) Brown % Panbaked Bread per type -Sep '17 to Aug '18- - Units - Whole wheat % Other % White % Total: Ton Units

33 Wheat: Price movements Wheaten products: Year on year price changes % Year % Year Price on Year Price on Year Price R R R White Bread 700g Brown Bread 700g Cake Flour 1kg Bread Flour 1kg Source: SA Stats September

34 Wheaten products: Price movement Index (Jan 08 Sep 18)

35 General

36 Transport by Component Wheat Maize

37 Wheat: Co-workers (Whole Grain) Wheat: Firms registered with SAGIS (Whole Grain) End consumers 1 Storers 18 Traders 49 Processors 74 Harbour silo owners 16 Total firms: 158

38 Wheat: Co-workers (Products) Independent Supermarkets % Total firms: 793 Wheat: Firms registered with SAGIS (Products) Independent Bakeries 34 Wheat Milling 4.29% Ind % Supermarket Groups % Bakery groups % Import/Export %

39 Acknowledgement Board of Directors The Winter Cereal Industry is represented by: Ms Mariana Purnell Chairperson Mr Tato Make Director Mr Geoff Penny (Alternate)

40 Acknowledgement Gratitude The following parties makes it possible to fulfil SAGIS commitments: Winter Cereal Trust Wheat Forum Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff Thank you for being part of SAGIS 20 year history, the present and ensuring its future.

41 Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS website under Presentations The difference between Ordinary and Extraordinary is that little extra. - Jimmy Johnson