The Zero-Marginal Cost Power Grid Panel Session on Planning Transmission for Co-optimization with Resource Expansion IEEE PES, 2015

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1 The Zero-Marginal Cost Power Grid Panel Session on Planning Transmission for Co-optimization with Resource Expansion IEEE PES, 215 Sean P. Meyn Florida Institute for Sustainable Energy Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Florida Thanks to my colleagues, Prabir Barooah and Ana Bušić and to our sponsors NSF, AFOSR, DOE / TCIPG

2 Zero-Marginal Cost Grid Outline 1 Challenges 2 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music 3 Conclusions 4 References

3 $/MWh March 8th 214: Impact of wind and solar on net-load at CAISO Price spike due to high net-load ramping need when solar production ramped out Negative prices due to high mid-day solar production Load and Net-load Toal Load Net-load: Toal Load, less Wind and Solar Wind and Solar Peak ramp Peak Toal Wind Toal Solar 24 hrs -2 Peak ramp Peak Ramp limitations cause price-spikes 24 hrs Challenges

4 Challenges Some of the Challenges 1 Ducks 1 / 11

5 Challenges Some of the Challenges 1 Ducks 2 Ramps 4 G W (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan Scary ramps 1 Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 MISO, CAISO, and others are looking for markets for ramping products 1 / 11

6 Challenges Some of the Challenges 1 Ducks 2 Ramps 3 Regulation October 2-25 October 27 - November 1 Regulation Generation and Laod Error Signal in Feedback Loop Load Generation Hydro Thermal Wind Regulation -1 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri -1 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri 1 / 11

7 Challenges Some of the Challenges 1 Ducks 2 Ramps 3 Regulation 4 Contingency Frequency (Hz) WECC Light Spring Extreme Light Spring Hi-Mix Light Spring Extreme Time (secs) 1 / 11

8 Challenges Some of the Challenges 1 Ducks 2 Ramps 3 Regulation 4 Contingency Q: Which of these has anything to do with energy? 1 / 11

9 Challenges Some of the Challenges 1 Ducks 2 Ramps 3 Regulation 4 Contingency Q: Which of these has anything to do with energy? A: none! 1 / 11

10 4 3 G r (t) 2 G r = G 1 + G 2 + G 3 1 G 1 G 2 G 3 Traditional generation DD: Chillers & Pool Pumps DD: HVAC Fans Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Ancillary Service free, like Digital Music

11 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Control Architecture Frequency Decomposition Σ Control C BP BP BP BP BP CA Gas Turbine Coal Batteries Flywheels LOAD Power Grid H Voltage Frequency Phase Actuator feedback loop Today: PJM decomposes regulation signal based on bandwidth, R = RegA + + RegD 2 / 11

12 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Control Architecture Frequency Decomposition Σ Control C BP BP BP BP BP CA Gas Turbine Coal Batteries Flywheels LOAD Power Grid H Voltage Frequency Phase Actuator feedback loop Today: PJM decomposes regulation signal based on bandwidth, R = RegA + + RegD Proposal: Each class of DR (and other) resources will have its own bandwidth of service, based on QoS constraints and costs. 2 / 11

13 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Taming the Duck $/MWh March 8th 214: Impact of wind and solar on net-load at CAISO Price spike due to high net-load ramping need when solar production ramped out Negative prices due to high mid-day solar production Load and Net-load Toal Load Net-load: Toal Load, less Wind and Solar Wind and Solar Peak ramp Peak Toal Wind Toal Solar 24 hrs -2 Peak ramp Peak Ramp limitations cause price-spikes 24 hrs 3 / 11

14 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Taming the Duck $/MWh March 8th 214: Impact of wind and solar on net-load at CAISO Price spike due to high net-load ramping need when solar production ramped out Negative prices due to high mid-day solar production Load and Net-load Toal Load Net-load: Toal Load, less Wind and Solar Wind and Solar Peak ramp Peak Toal Wind Toal Solar 24 hrs -2 Peak ramp Peak Ramp limitations cause price-spikes 24 hrs ISOs need help:... ramp capability shortages could result in a single, five-minute dispatch interval or multiple consecutive dispatch intervals during which the price of energy can increase significantly due to scarcity pricing, even if the event does not present a significant reliability risk 3 / 11

15 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Taming the Duck One Day at CAISO 22 Net Load Curve Increased ramp am ISO/RTOs are seeking ramping products to address engineering challenges, and to avoid scarcity prices Do we need ramping products? 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 4 / 11

16 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Taming the Duck 25 One Day at CAISO 22 Net Load Curve Taming the Duck 5 This doesn t look at all scary! We need resources, but anyone here knows how to track this tame duck -5 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 4 / 11

17 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Taming the Duck 25 One Day at CAISO 22 Net Load Curve 2 Low pass The duck is a sum of a smooth energy signal, and two zero-energy services High pass Mid pass -5 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 4 / 11

18 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Taming the Duck 25 One Day at CAISO 22 Net Load Curve 2 Low pass The duck is a sum of a smooth energy signal, and two zero-energy services Mid pass High pass Zero marginal cost? -5 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 4 / 11

19 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Smoothing Contingencies 15 One Day at CAISO: 4 loss at 6am Net Load Curve 1 Ramp! 5 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 5 / 11

20 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Smoothing Contingencies 15 One Day at CAISO: 4 loss at 6am Net Load Curve am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 5 / 11

21 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Smoothing Contingencies One Day at CAISO: 4 loss at 6am Net Load Curve 15 Charge 1 Discharge 5 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 5 / 11

22 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Smoothing Contingencies 15 One Day at CAISO: 4 loss at 6am Net Load Curve 1 5 Low pass Mid pass High pass Higher pass 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 5 / 11

23 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Smoothing Contingencies 15 One Day at CAISO: 4 loss at 6am Net Load Curve 1 5 Low pass Mid pass High pass Higher pass Zero energy reg signals Zero marginal cost? 12am 3am 6am 9am 12pm 3pm 6pm 9pm 12am 5 / 11

24 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan Scary ramps 1 Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 6 / 11

25 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 3 (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 215 Goal: (t) + Gr (t) 4 2 Scary ramps 1 Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 6 / 11

26 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 3 (t) = Wind generation in BPA, Jan 215 Scary Goal: (t) + Gr (t) 4 Scary Sca 2 Scary Scary Scary 1 Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 6 / 11

27 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 Gr (t) 3 Scary 2 1 Goal: (t) + Gr (t) 4 Gr (t) obtained from generation? Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 6 / 11

28 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 Gr (t) 3 2 G1 Gr = G1 + G2 + G3 1 Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 6 / 11

29 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 Gr (t) 3 2 G1 G2 Gr = G1 + G2 + G3 1 Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 6 / 11

30 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 Gr (t) G1 G2 G3 Gr = G1 + G2 + G3 Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 6 / 11

31 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 Gr (t) G1 G2 G3 Gr = G1 + G2 + G3 Where do we find these resources? Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 6 / 11

32 Ancillary Service as free as Digital Music Frequency Decomposition Regulation 4 3 G r (t) 2 G 1 1 G 2 G 3 G r = G 1 + G 2 + G 3 Where do we find these resources? Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... 7 / 11

33 Gas Turbine Coal Batteries Water Pump BP Control Σ C BP BP Power Grid LOAD BP BP CA Actuator feedback loop Conclusions H Voltage Frequency Phase

34 Conclusions Conclusions Summary and Suggestions These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... Demand-side resources could replace our real-time markets! 4 G r = G 1 + G 2 + G 3 3 G r (t) 2 1 G 1 G 2 G 3 = Real Time Market DD can replace the RTM Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 8 / 11

35 Conclusions Conclusions Summary and Suggestions These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... Not so fast! 8 / 11

36 Conclusions Conclusions Summary and Suggestions These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... Not so fast! Zero marginal cost free 8 / 11

37 Conclusions Conclusions Summary and Suggestions These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... Not so fast! Zero marginal cost free Conclusions Ancillary Service can be as free as Digital Music 8 / 11

38 Conclusions Conclusions Summary and Suggestions These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... Not so fast! Zero marginal cost free Conclusions Ancillary Service can be as free as Digital Music However, as often happens in power systems, as well as music, there is a huge sunk-cost 8 / 11

39 Conclusions Conclusions Summary and Suggestions These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... Not so fast! Zero marginal cost free Conclusions Ancillary Service can be as free as Digital Music However, as often happens in power systems, as well as music, there is a huge sunk-cost Challenge: economic theory for the music industry 8 / 11

40 Conclusions Conclusions Summary and Suggestions These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... Not so fast! Zero marginal cost free Conclusions Ancillary Service can be as free as Digital Music However, as often happens in power systems, as well as music, there is a huge sunk-cost Challenge: economic theory for the music industry FERC Order 755 is a nice start. 8 / 11

41 Conclusions Conclusions Summary and Suggestions These resources are free! Fans, Irrigation, pool pumps,... Not so fast! Zero marginal cost free Conclusions Ancillary Service can be as free as Digital Music However, as often happens in power systems, as well as music, there is a huge sunk-cost Challenge: economic theory for the music industry FERC Order 755 is a nice start. Will the Supreme Court give us a new and improved FERC Order 745 in the fall? 8 / 11

42 Conclusions Conclusions Thank You! 9 / 11

43 References Pre-publication version for on-line viewing. Monograph available for purchase at your favorite retailer More information available at August 28 Pre-publication version for on-line viewing. Monograph to appear Februrary 29 Control Techniques Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability FOR Complex Networks P n (x, ) π f π(f ) < C sup Ex [SτC (f )] < V (x) f (x) + bic (x) Sean Meyn S. P. Meyn and R. L. Tweedie References 1 / 11

44 References Selected References More at H. Hao, T. Middelkoop, P. Barooah, and S. Meyn. How demand response from commercial buildings will provide the regulation needs of the grid. In 5th Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing, pages , 212. H. Hao, Y. Lin, A. Kowli, P. Barooah, and S. Meyn. Ancillary service to the grid through control of fans in commercial building HVAC systems. IEEE Trans. on Smart Grid, 5(4): , July 214. S. Meyn, P. Barooah, A. Bušić, Y. Chen, and J. Ehren. Ancillary service to the grid using intelligent deferrable loads. ArXiv e-prints: arxiv: and to appear, IEEE Trans. on Auto. Control, 214. P. Barooah, A. Bušić, and S. Meyn. Spectral decomposition of demand-side flexibility for reliable ancillary services in a smart grid. In Proc. 48th Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS), pages , Kauai, Hawaii, 215. Y. Chen, A. Bušić, and S. Meyn. Individual risk in mean-field control models for decentralized control, with application to automated demand response. In Proc. of the 53rd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, pages , Dec J. Mathias, R. Kaddah, A. Bušić, and S. Meyn. Smart fridge / dumb grid? demand dispatch for the power grid of 22. Submitted for publication, June / 11

Demand Dispatch with Heterogeneous Intelligent Loads

Demand Dispatch with Heterogeneous Intelligent Loads HICSS 5, January 6, 217 Sean P. Meyn Florida Institute for Sustainable Energy Joel Mathias, UF & Ana Bušić, Inria Department of Electrical and Computer