Technologies data base and technological innovation needs up to 2050

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Peirano, Technofi Work Package leader e-highway2050 I Final Conference

1 Session IV : Long-term grid development Technology and operations Technologies data base and technological innovation needs up to 2050 Eric Peirano, Technofi Work Package leader e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November 2015 e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November 2015

2 Content Objectives and use of the data base Scope of the data base Construction process and specificities of the database Focus on the costs of transmission technologies Technological innovation needs Conclusions e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

Objectives of the data base A database for selected power system technologies has been constructed to provide the modeling and simulation activities (system simulations, dynamic simulations, cost

3 Objectives of the data base A database for selected power system technologies has been constructed to provide the modeling and simulation activities (system simulations, dynamic simulations, cost benefit analysis, etc.) with information on technology costs and performances for the next decades up to 2050, provide stakeholders with structured information on the selected technologies, in order to become a reference database in future planning activities beyond the project. The data base is a set of Excel files per technology supplemented by technical reports Storage technologies e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

4 Content Objectives and use of the data base Scope of the data base Construction process and specificities of the database Focus on the costs of transmission technologies Technological innovation needs Conclusions e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

Detailed technological scope of the database ELECTRICITY GENERATION and STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES Photovoltaic Concentrated solar power Wind onshore and offshore Geothermal Biomass Hydropower with and

5 Detailed technological scope of the database ELECTRICITY GENERATION and STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES Photovoltaic Concentrated solar power Wind onshore and offshore Geothermal Biomass Hydropower with and without reservoir Gas turbines (with/no CCS) Hard coal generation with/no CCS Hard coal/biomass co-firing with/no CCS Lignite generation CHP (biomass) Fluidized bed coal and lignite Nuclear power: generation III Nuclear power: generation III+ Nuclear power: generation IV Pumped hydro-storage Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) Batteries (centralised and decentralised) Redox flow batteries PASSIVE TRANSMISSION TECHNOLOGIES HV AC and DC cables (underground and submarine) HVAC and HVDC overhead lines Gas Insulated Lines (GILs) Superconductors ACTIVE TRANSMISSION TECHNOLOGIES HVDC Converters (CSC and VSC) FACTS (shunt and series) Transformers: PST and tap changer Protection and control at substations and at system level Electric vehicles (& hybrids) DEMAND SIDE TECHNOLOGIES Heat pumps Lighting (LED and OLED) e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

6 Focus on transmission technologies Transmission technologies Passive transmission technologies Active transmission technologies Cables OHL HVDC FACTS Transformers Breakers Protection and control AC/DC XLPE HVDC CSC STATCOM PST AC breaker RTTR DC MI HVAC VSC SVC AC transformer WAMS/PMU HTS FSC e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

7 Passive transmission technologies Passive Transmission technologies OHL Cables HVAC HVDC MI DC underground submarine AC XLPE underground submarine DC XLPE underground submarine AC HTS DC HTS 2 circuits / tower AAAC 400 kv One circuit / tower 320 kv 4 x 265/ kv 320 kv today 320 kv 138 kv 320 kv 2 circuits / tower ACSS 400 kv 2 circuits / tower AAAC 750 kv One circuit / tower 500 kv 4 x 550/70 One circuit / tower 800 kv 6 x 720/ kv kv kv kv 220 kv 300 kv 400 kv 400 kv 500 kv One circuit / tower 1100 kv 8 x 1000/ kv > 500 kv e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

8 Content Objectives and use of the data base Scope of the data base Construction process and specificities of the database Focus on the costs of transmission technologies Technological innovation needs Conclusions e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

9 Architecture and construction process Data sorted per technology and per data types with specific variables described for each decade until 2050 (example for wind power and DC XLPE cable) 1. technical performance characteristics (nominal power, rotor diameter, etc.) 2. technology readiness and maturity (i.e. identified innovations -TRL scale-). 3. implementation constraints (permitting), 4. total costs (CAPEX, OPEX, lifespan), 5. environmental impacts and public acceptance (CO 2, EPBT, etc.), 6. market and supply chain variables (project lead time, possible bottlenecks), 7. dynamic performances (frequency control, storm control, etc.). Data gathering and validation Data gathering, modelling/calculations mainly ensured by professional associations per domain of expertise Data validation ensured by consortium members (Quality Pool, internal workshops, review) and by external stakeholders via an external workshop. e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

10 Specificities: BAT approach BAT (Best Available Technology) from a techno-economic point of view for each decade. HVDC converters: from (500 kv, 2 ka) today to (1100 kv, 4-6 ka) in 2050, Wind turbine: rated power from MW today to MW in Specific approach to forecast, for instance, data for BAT in 2020 at 2050, e.g. for a 4,8 GW HVDC converter Data BAT 2020? Data BAT 2020 in 2050 keep the same 2020 technical performances in terms of current and voltage at all variables which reflects the progress in terms of design, use 2050 values of 2050 BAT (i.e. e.g. losses, maximum distances, availability, lifetime, etc. ). e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

11 Content Objectives and use of the data base Scope of the data base Construction process and specificities of the database Focus on the costs of transmission technologies Technological innovation needs Conclusions e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

12 Costs for transmission technologies Proposed methodology 1. Choose an archetype for a given technology family (e.g. HVAC OHL line, double circuit 400 kv) 2. Build the costs trajectories for each of five components (equipment, installation, civil work, project management, authorizations and right of ways) on a reduced number of indices LAB ENG OIL METAL EXP Personnel costs Commodity: energy / metal "Experience-based Progress Ratios from curve" Irene-40 Multiplier 3. Resort forto higher multipliers voltages to address (from 400technology kv to 750 kv) variants (i.e. e.g. HVAC OHL, 1.63single circuit, Multiplier 750 kv) for higher voltages (from 400 kv to 550 kv) 1.25 Multiplier from double to single circuit 2/3 Costs Multiplier from 4 to 3 conductor Costs bundle 3/4 Multiplier type of conductor technology archetype (AAAC to ACSS) 1.25 Multiplier type of terrain 1.4 variant (urban) 2.1 (mountain)? e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

13 Content Objectives and use of the data base Scope of the data base Construction process and specificities of the database Focus on the costs of transmission technologies Technological innovation needs Conclusions e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

14 Technology innovation needs Technological innovation needs for transmission technologies : To provide the electricity system stakeholders with technological options needed to implement the reinforcement strategies considered in the e-highway2050 project; Exercise based on the identified transmission requirements (distance, power, voltage) coming from grid architectures at 2050; R&D needs are provided for the period: what are the R&D needs (and the associated standardization needs) to be launched during so as to reach the 2050 targets? Analysis of the transmission technologies identified in the database: which ones are the most likely to be implemented within that time horizon? e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

15 A four-step approach 1. Sorting of all inter-cluster links of all grid architectures in two subsets links with no needs for further reinforcement, active links: need for additional capacity (new line or reinforcement). 2. Focus on the active links Distribution of the links in a 2-dimensional space (power, distance), for each ehighway2050 scenario 3. Mapping of 2D space Min-max identified distance and power with possible technologies Clustering of 2D space in 5x5 classes Terrestrial and submarine mappings Terrestrial clustering 4. Conclusions on technology needs in (power, distance) space e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

16 Conclusion on terrestrial technology needs What are the available technological options (database) which could fulfil the identified (power, distance) needs? In addition to the available technologies for 400 kv OHL HVAC OHL with different designs: number of circuits and bundle, conductors (HTLS) so as to reach higher power over short distances, standardized HVAC/XLPE underground cable solutions for partial undergrounding solutions in sensitive areas (public consent), higher voltage AC lines -typically 550 kv- when addressing longer distances at medium power, meshed HVDC networks implemented with OHL and HVDC cables over long distances, notably for interconnectors (with offshore wind farm for instance); e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

17 Technology needs for terrestrial links needs Options (cable) Options (OHL) tac DCu e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

18 Conclusion on submarine technology needs What are the available technological options (database) which could fulfil the identified (power, distance) needs? Available technologies for all distances up to medium power: improve the efficiency of these technologies, both in technical (decrease of losses and failure rates, increase of possible depths) and economic (investment and O&M costs) terms; For higher power submarine liaison over all distances: reach higher voltages and intensities but also increase the installation depths so as to exceed 2500 meters in the coming decades with lighter cables; As for terrestrial applications, HVDC meshed networks are expected (in the North Sea for instance for the interconnections of offshore windfarms) with multi-terminal HVDC systems at sea; Interoperability of the HVDC systems (VSC converters for instance) is a key issue. e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

19 Technology needs for submarine links needs Available options tac DCu e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

20 Content Objectives and use of the data base Scope of the data base Construction process and specificities of the database Focus on the costs of transmission technologies Technological innovation needs Conclusions e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

21 Conclusions (1) Available data base for Generation and storage technologies Impacting demand-side technologies Transmission technologies Data base and cost estimation methodology can be re-used in other contexts in e-highway2050 and beyond (in coherence with the future exploitation plan) to recalculate future costs of transmission technologies based on different archetypes, or different breakdown of cost, or different laws of evolutions of indices; to add non-considered technologies beyond the current e-highway2050 technology portfolio; modular methodological blocks based on transparent assumptions with a methodology to build future costs for transmission technologies. e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

22 Conclusions (2) Identified gaps in terrestrial and submarine liaisons calling for specifications of further RD&D work to better cover the Transmission Requirement domains A limited set of modular solutions for terrestrial and submarine liaisons could, when combined, meet most of the transmission requirements identified in the computations (a balance should be found between the economies of scale and the wide range of possible liaisons at a pan-european scale). Possible RD&D needs depend on several parameters going beyond the 2D space (voltage, type of conductors, terrain, etc.) and other non-technical variables (mainly public acceptance). Other technologies as Gas Insulated Lines (GIL) and superconducting cables might be of interest in the long run, probably in densely-populated areas where huge amount of power have to be transmitted underground. e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

23 Conclusions (3) Identified gaps in terrestrial and submarine liaisons calling for specifications of further RD&D work to better cover the Transmission Requirement domains For the gap identified on high power to be transmitted over long distances, two different paths are open for further RD&D studies, both routes deserving to be explored by the stakeholders of the electricity value chain: to increase the transfer capacity of conventional cables (such as XLPE); to keep on developing solutions with high transfer capacity, such as superconducting cables, and improve their economic efficiency for long distance applications. e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November

24 Thank you for your attention! Contact : rte-e-highway2050@rte-france.com Web: Follow us on e-highway2050 I Final Conference Brussels I 3-4 November 2015

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