World Offshore Wind Market Forecast Prospects, Technologies, World Markets

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1 2016 World Offshore Wind Market Forecast Prospects, Technologies, World Markets

2 Contents Table of Contents 1 Summary and Conclusions...7 Summary... 8 Conclusions Drivers and Indicators Overview...11 Political Drivers...12 Economic Drivers...13 Low Carbon Power Generation Offshore Wind Project Development Offshore Wind Project Lifecycle...16 Offshore Wind Project Cost Structure...17 Capex Phase 1: Planning & Development...18 Capex Phase 1: Wind Turbine...19 Capex Phase 1: Balance of Plant...20 Capex Phase 1: Installation...21 Opex Phase...22 Capex Phase 2: Decommissioning...23 Offshore Wind Supply Chain Commercial Insights Project Scale...26 Supply Chain...27 Capital and Lifetime Costs...29 Risk Profile...30 Financing Challenges...31 Contracting Strategies...33 Industry Challenges...34 Technology: Wind Turbines...36 Technology: Foundations...38 Key Trends: New Technologies...39 Key Trends: Clustering and Repowering...40 Key Trends: Logistics...41 Key Markets: Current Capacity...42 Emerging Markets: Forecast Capacity Market Forecast Methodology...45 Added Capacity by Country...48 Cumulative Capacity by Country...49 Capital Expenditure by Country...50 Annual Capital Expenditure by Type...51 Operational Expenditure by Country...52 Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Country...53 Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Size...54 Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Manufacturer...55 Segment Forecasts: Foundations...56 Segment Forecasts: Cables...57 Segment Forecasts: Offshore Substations...58 Segment Forecasts: Vessels...59 Segment Forecasts: Helicopters Appendix Data and Text Conventions Douglas-Westwood 2

3 Contents Figures Figure 1: Capital Expenditure by Country, Figure 2: Drivers for Offshore Wind...11 Figure 3: EU 2020 Targets for Key Offshore Wind Markets Progress to Date Figure 4: Global Primary Energy Demand Growth...13 Figure 5: Energy Demand Forecast by Fuel Type...13 Figure 6: Global Power Generation Forecast...14 Figure 7: Levelised Cost of Energy Key Technologies in Europe...14 Figure 8: Offshore Wind Project Lifecycle...16 Figure 9: Cost Breakdown by Project Phase Capex, Opex, Decommissioning Figure 10: Offshore Wind Supply Chain Overview...24 Figure 11: Average Project Capacity, Distance from Shore and Water Depth Figure 12: Offshore Wind Capex Drivers...29 Figure 13: Offshore Wind Average Project Capex, Figure 14: Planning & Development Timelines, UK Figure 15: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines...36 Figure 16: Aerogenerator X...37 Figure 17: Two-bladed Offshore Wind Turbine Figure 18: Types of Floating Foundations Figure 19: Picture of UAV...39 Figure 20: Radar Image Showing Aircraft Flying Through Wind Farm...39 Figure 21: Siemens OTM Module...39 Figure 22: Artist s Impression of Siemens Facility...40 Figure 24: Wind Service Operation Vessel (SOV)...41 Figure 23: Heli-Hoist Basket...41 Figure 25: Key Markets, the Global Picture...42 Figure 26: Global Offshore Wind Installed Capacity, Figure 27: Key Region, North-Western Europe...42 Figure 28: Forecast Global Capacity Installation : Emerging Markets Figure 29: Global: Forecast Wind Farm, Capacity and Turbines...43 Figure 30: All Offshore Wind Projects vs. DW Forecast Capacity, Figure 31: Global Forecast Capacity...47 Figure 32: Global Offshore Wind Forecast Capacity Installed, Figure 33: North-Western Europe Forecast Capacity...47 Figure 34: Added Capacity by Country, Figure 35: Cumulative Capacity by Country, Figure 36: Capital Expenditure by Country, Figure 37: Expected Annual Offshore Wind Capex, by Type Figure 38: Planning and Development Capex, , m...51 Figure 39: Wind Turbine Annual Capex , m...51 Figure 40: Balance of Plant Annual Capex , m...51 Figure 41: Installation Annual Capex , m...51 Figure 42: Operational Expenditure by Country, Figure 43: Operational Expenditure by Activity...52 Figure 44: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, Figure 45: Wind Turbines Installed by Size, Figure 46: Wind Turbines Installed by Manufacturer, Figure 47: Foundations Installed by Type, Figure 48: Cable Length Installed by Country, Figure 49: Cable Length Installed by Type, Figure 50: Substations Installed by Country, Figure 51: Substations Installed by Type, Figure 52: Installation Vessels Required by Type, Figure 53: Personnel Transfer Vessels Required, Figure 54: Helicopters Required, Douglas-Westwood 3

4 Contents Tables Table 1: Renewable Energy Incentive Mechanisms in Key Markets...12 Table 2: Foundation Types Comparison...27 Table 3: Investor Types and Their Attitude to Risk...30 Table 4: Contracting Strategies...33 Table 5: Cost of Repowered Wind vs. CCGT Table 6: Offshore Wind Projects Status Methodology...45 Table 7: Added Capacity by Country, Table 8: Cumulative Capacity by Country, Table 9: Capital Expenditure by Country, Table 10: Operational Expenditure by Country, Table 11: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, Table 12: Wind Turbines Installed by Size, Table 13: Wind Turbines Installed by Manufacturer, Table 14: Foundations Installed by Type, Table 15: Cable Length Installed by Country, Table 16: Cable Length Installed by Type, Table 17: Substations Installed by Country, Table 18: Substations Installed by T ype, Table 19: Installation Vessels Required by Type, Table 20: Personnel Transfer Vessels Required, Table 21: Helicopters Required, Douglas-Westwood 4

5 Notes & Acknowledgements About Us Disclaimer This report is a Douglas-Westwood (DW) study and all rights are reserved, whether this pertains to the body of the report or any information contained within. The information contained in this document is believed to be accurate, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Douglas-Westwood as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of any information contained in it, and we do not accept any responsibility in relation to such information whether fact, opinion or conclusion that the reader may draw. The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publisher. While we have made every attempt to ensure the information contained in this document has been obtained from reliable sources, Douglas-Westwood is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information in this document is provided as is, with no guarantee of completeness, accuracy, timeliness or of the results obtained from the use of this information, and without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including, but not limited to warranties of performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. Nothing herein shall to any extent substitute for the independent investigations and the sound technical and business judgment of the reader. Laws and regulations are continually changing, and can be interpreted only in light Production Team Editor Steve Robertson Assistant Editor Hannah Lewndon Report Author Celia Hayes Rachel Stonehouse World Offshore Wind Market Forecast is published by: Douglas-Westwood Limited, 20 East Street Faversham Kent ME13 8AS, UK tel: fax: Copyright Douglas-Westwood Limited 2015 of particular factual situations. Layout & Graphic Design Oliver Solly By purchasing this document, your organisation agrees that it will not copy or allow to be copied in part or whole or otherwise circulated in any form any of the contents without the written permission of the publishers. Date of publication: 17 th November 2015 DW report number ISBN A supporting databook to accompany the charts and tables presented in this report is available in Excel format upon request Douglas-Westwood 5

6 Notes & Acknowledgements Douglas-Westwood s Offerings About Us Consultancy Transactions Research Publications Established in 1990, Douglas-Westwood is a leading provider of market research and consulting services to the energy industry worldwide. We have completed over 1,000 projects for clients in more than 70 different countries and in some 250 niche energy segments. Our clients range from the oil & gas majors and their contractors to financial houses and governments. We are an independent organisation and our research is supported by proprietary data, insight and knowledge. Our international reach is backed up by one of the largest sectorfocused teams in offices in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Douglas-Westwood clients include the world s: Top-10 oil & gas companies Top-10 oilfield services companies Energy experts Douglas-Westwood The Guardian With an extensive advisory team spanning three continents, Douglas-Westwood delivers energy business consultancy services across the globe. DW consultancy services are focused on the strategic planning process, helping our clients to make investment decisions, develop and test advanced competitive strategies for new products, new business streams, mergers and acquisitions, We provide consultancy services through advanced market insight, modelling and simulation to a client base which includes players in oil & gas E&P, oilfield services, conventional & renewable energy and the public sector. Douglas-Westwood has supplied consultancy services to over 250 companies worldwide. Foremost oilfield services market consultant Hong Kong client Douglas-Westwood provides sectorfocused commercial due-diligence and transactions services to major and mid-tier private equity firms, investment banks and debt providers. We have industryleading credentials including both buy-side and sell-side mandates, public-to-private transactions, re-financing, IPOs and project financing ranging in enterprise value from $5 million technology firms to $1 billion oilfield service, engineering and equipment companies. Douglas-Westwood clients include the world s: Top-10 private equity firms Top-10 investment banks Douglas-Westwood provides great value to us Perth client Business research, analysis and market forecasting is our core activity. Over the years we have built a huge knowledge base of both sectors and players. Our experience of researching the oilfield services sector (OFS) is unparalleled worldwide. We specialise in emerging markets and technologies, from offshore windpower to subsea processing and difficult to access markets and geographies including Russia and the Middle East. Our custom research offerings include: gathering & analysis of market data, independent marketing and forecasting, measurement & analysis of competitive positions and industry consultation & in-depth perception surveys. Douglas-Westwood have researched some 250 different business sectors to wide international acclaim. Top energy research group Douglas-Westwood Financial Times Douglas-Westwood produces original energy business market studies and forecasts, now highly acclaimed and used worldwide. In oil & gas we were the first firm to forecast & value the growth of key offshore markets such as deepwater, subsea production, global onshore drilling, pipelines and offshore wind power. Our reports are geared to meet senior executives needs in business planning and decision-making and assume no previous reader knowledge of the subject area. Each offers a concise, region by region format. Analysis is based on our extensive in-house project databases and models combined with forecasting expertise developed over many years. Douglas-Westwood has over 20 energy sector market forecast titles in print. An excellent report in all areas Houston client 2015 Douglas-Westwood 6

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