36 th Annual Marine Technology Society Outlook Conference

Transcription

1 36 th Annual Marine Technology Society Outlook Conference Outlook for Major Segments of the INDUSTRY International OUTLOOK Offshore Industry Steve Roll, Vice President & General Manager Atlantic Region March 28, 2013

2 GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND Global energy demand will be 30% higher in 2040 Source: ExxonMobil, 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, Internal Analysis

3 GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY Source: ExxonMobil, 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, Internal Analysis

4 NORTHAMERICA SUPPLY Source: ExxonMobil, 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, Internal Analysis

5 OIL PRICE TRENDS Unsustainable Short-Run Spikes $/barrel Long-Run Sustainable Price Trend 30 0 Brent Brent prices are expected to exceed the $100 mark for the foreseeable future. The growth in shale oil in the US will hamper increase in Brent Oil Prices. Source: Internal Analysis; Infield, Atlantic Market Overview, Jan 13; Permission granted by Infield

6 COST PER DEVELOPMENT Shallow Water (0-500m) Avg Sanction Price = $20/bbl * 4% inflation per year Source: Internal Analysis; Infield, Atlantic Market Overview, Jan 13; Deepwater ( m) Avg Sanction Price = $60/bbl 2020 Sanction Price = $80/bbl* Ultra Deepwater ( m) Avg Sanction Price = $75/bbl 2020 Sanction Price = $100/bbl*

7 GLOBAL CAPEX BREAKDOWN $4, billion $8,432 billion UltraDeep % UltraDeep % * Includes drilling Source: Internal Analysis; PFC Energy, What s Around the Corner, Apr 12; Permission granted by PFC Energy

8 SHALE REVOLUTION Source: ExxonMobil, 2012 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, Internal Analysis

9 GAS TRADE FLOW Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2012, Nov 2012; Internal Analysis

10 PROJECTS GROWING IN SIZE Source: Douglas Westwood, The World Deepwater Market Report , Internal Analysis

11 TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS

12 PUBLIC PERCEPTION For the second year in a row, the oil and gas industry has the most negative overall perception of any industry by Americans Gallup Poll Source: Internal Analysis; Gallup Poll, Americans Rate Computer Industry Best, Oil and Gas Worst, Aug 12;

13 LOCAL CONTENT Non-OECD countries will account for 71% of global energy production in 2030 Purpose of Local Content Workforce development Employment Training Supplier Development Procurement and fabrication locally Developing Countries Middle East and Asia Pacific countries are increasing local content requirements Study by Booz & Co. discovered that Brazilian contractors charge 55% more than international competitors Mozambique will delay new lease sale until legislative laws (including local content) can be finalized Source: Internal Analysis; BP Energy Outlook 2030, Jan 13;

14 CONTRACTING Frame Agreements Some operators are signing extended time period frame agreements with approved contractors Engineering agreements Fabrication agreements Installation agreements Subsea operations agreements Risk Transfer via Terms & Conditions Cash Flow Terms Decrease Scope of Indemnities Elimination of Protections (abandonment, condemnation, etc..) Source: Internal Analysis;

15 THE GREAT CREW CHANGE 50% of management and senior level engineers will either be retired or near retirement by the end of the decade. Greater Need for Qualified Employees Complexity requires greater technology Countries increasing gproduction Deeper and more remote fields Solutions Mentoring Cross-training Job shadowing Workshops Safety Experience vs. Book Learning Schlumberger Business Council benchmark survey reveals up to 70% of NOCs, 60% of major IOCs and 45% of Independents have acknowledged project delays due to staffing difficulties. Source: Internal Analysis; Schlumberger Business Council, HR Benchmark Survey, Mar 12;

16 CONCLUSIONS Long-Term Market is Promising Global l energy demand d will increase by 35% over the next 30 years, with growth in developing nations offsetting declines in the developed world. Onshore vs. Offshore Unconventional oil and gas will lead to increase production in the US. The rest of the world will not see large scale unconventional production until the end of the decade. d Technology Advancements The rise in technology has allowed operators to explore farther and deeper for oil at a lower cost. Th G t C Ch The Great Crew Change The shortage of qualified employees coupled with the increase in activity will make hiring and retaining employees a premium.