2020 Census Program Update

Transcription

1 2020 Census Program Update Council of Professional Associations on Federal Statistics March 6, 2015 Deirdre Dalpiaz Bishop Chief, Decennial Management Division U.S. Census Bureau 1

2 Planning for the 2020 Census Design and conduct a census that costs less per housing unit than the 2010 Census while maintaining high quality Identify cost drivers and implement innovative enumeration methods aimed at reducing these costs Focus early research and testing program on major innovations to the design of the census oriented around major cost drivers of the 2010 Census 2

3 2020 Census Innovation Areas Reengineering Address Canvassing Optimizing Self Response Utilizing Administrative Records Reengineering Field Operations 3

4 Reengineering the Census 4

5 Key Activities Fiscal Years (FY) 2013 and Census Test Philadelphia, PA October December ,077 housing units in sample 2014 Census Test Montgomery County, MD and Northwest Washington, DC July 1, 2014 Census Day 151,759 housing units in sample 46,247 housing units in Nonresponse Follow Up (NRFU) Reports will be finalized this month The Path to the 2020 Census Design Decision 5

6 Key Activities - FY Human in the Loop Simulation 2015 Census Tests Address Validation Test (AVT) Master Address File (MAF) Model Validation Test (MMVT) Partial Block Canvassing Test (PBC) 2015 Optimizing Self Response Test 2015 Census Test 2015 National Content Test 2020 Census Operational Plan 6

7 2014 Human in the Loop Simulation November 2014 Nationwide simulation Census Bureau s Center for Adaptive Technology (CAT) Lab MITRE s National Simulation and Experimentation Laboratory 100 participants from Census Headquarters and all Regional Offices 7

8 2014 Human in the Loop Simulation 8

9 2015 Address Validation Test Master Address File (MAF) Model Validation Test (MMVT) Validate the quality of the MAF Assess the ability of statistical models to predict change and determine in-field address canvassing workloads Nationwide September December ,100 blocks in sample Report will be finalized in May

10 2015 Address Validation Test Partial Block Canvassing Test (PBC) Identify areas of change using in-office methodologies such as imagery Assess the ability to conduct in-field address canvassing in portions of census blocks Nationwide (29 counties) December 2014 January blocks in sample Report will be finalized in May

11 Partial Block Canvassing Partial Block Canvassing example: Imagery review identifies discrepancy between MAF and imagery; updates are clustered in a portion of the block 11

12 2015 Optimizing Self Response Test Assess the impact of conducting a Notify Me phase Test the use of targeted communications, digital advertising, and partnerships Offer a Non-ID response option and process results in real time Savannah, GA media market April 1, 2015 Census Day 338,000 housing units in the test area 90,000 housing units will receive mailed materials 12

13 2015 Optimizing Self Response Test Print Ads 13

14 2015 Optimizing Self Response Test Social Media 14

15 2015 Census Test Automate tasks traditionally performed by humans Automated training for field managers and enumerators Automated assignment and management of the workload Integration of the operational control system and the enumeration instrument (COMPASS) Assess new field management structures Determine how administrative records can reduce the NRFU workload and determine contact strategies Test a Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) component Maricopa County, AZ April 1, 2015 Census Day 165,000 housing units in sample 15

16 2015 National Content Test Continue to test contact strategies Conduct content testing Race and Hispanic Origin Single vs. combined question Introduction of a Middle Eastern and North African Category Relationship Introduction of Same-Sex Relationship Categories Within Household Coverage Nationwide September 1, 2015 Census Day 1.2 million housing units in sample 16

17 2020 Census Operational Plan Documents the preliminary design decisions for the 2020 Census Includes: 2020 Census Concept of Operations Four Key Innovation Areas Thirty-four 2020 Census Operations Supporting documentation Acquisition Strategy Lifecycle Cost Estimates Operational Implementation Plans OIG and GAO Recommendations Crosswalk Plan announced in October

18 Upcoming 2020 Census Testing Activities 2015 Simulated Field Operations Test 2016 Census Test 2016 Address Canvassing Test 2017 Census Test 2018 Census Test 18

19 Questions?