2020 Census. Bob Colosi Decennial Statistical Studies Division February, 2016
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1 2020 Census Bob Colosi Decennial Statistical Studies Division February, 2016
2 Decennial Census Overview (1 of 2) Purpose: To conduct a census of population and housing and disseminate the results to the President, the States, and the American People Primary Uses of Decennial Census Data: Apportion representation among states as mandated by Article 1, Section 2 of the United States Constitution: Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this union, according to their respective Numbers The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. Draw congressional and state legislative districts, school districts and voting precincts Inform business and nonprofit organization decisions (e.g., where to locate, size of the market) define the denominator for weighting for all household surveys and polls Establishes the data backbone for the country for 10 years 2
3 Decennial Census Overview (2 of 2) Census data help ensure fair share of political representation Congressional apportionment (435 seats in House of Reps) (2 min) Legislative redistricting (boundaries for Congressional Districts) Largest peacetime activity the federal government undertakes Congressional direction found in Title 13, U.S. Code Approximately 309 million people and 134 million housing units were counted in the 2010 Decennial Census Census data directly affect how more than $400 billion per year (more than $4 trillion over the next decade) in federal funding is allocated to state, local, and tribal governments 3
4 Check-In! How many people were counted in the 2010 Census? million in how many housing units? million True or False: The Constitution is silent on how to conduct a census or what to collect. 4
5 2010 Census Summary Cost about $12 Billion 44 operations (including a paper-based nonresponse follow-up to over 48 million addresses) 56 major systems (IT) 450 data interfaces Very complex Very accurate Measured an net overcount--not statistically significant--of 0.01% 5
6 Overview of 2010 Census Approach Address List Construct master address list so the Census Bureau can contact the public and conduct a quality census Mailout Supply the public (mostly by mail) with the forms to participate in the census using the standard mail method NRFU Follow-up in person to enumerate households that did not return a Census questionnaire by mail Special Operations Implement various special operations to count hard-toenumerate populations (see next slide) 6
7 We find ways to include everyone! Special Operations Group Quarters nursing homes, prisons/jails, hospitals, religious institutions, dorms, etc. Transient Locations RV parks, campgrounds, hotels, motels, marinas, racetracks, circuses, and carnivals Service-based Locations soup kitchens, homeless shelters, and nonsheltered outdoor locations Overseas Enumeration military and federally affiliated people living overseas Puerto Rico Island Areas Guam, Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and Northern Mariana Islands 7
8 Check-In! Which 2010 Census Special Operation included nursing homes, prisons/jails, hospitals, religious institutions, and dorms? 8
9 2020 Census 9
10 Reengineering Address Canvassing Reduce the nationwide In-Field Address Canvassing by developing innovative methodologies for updating and maintaining the Census Bureau s address list and spatial database throughout the decade. In-Office Address Canvassing Where Should We Start? Continual Research and Updating Ongoing Process for In-Office Canvassing In-Field Address Canvassing Address List and Spatial Database 10
11 Optimizing Self-Response Generate the largest possible self-response, reducing the number of households requiring follow-up. 11
12 Utilizing Administrative Records Use information people have already provided to reduce expensive in-person follow-up. Improve the quality of the Frame Update the Frame Validate incoming data from tribal, federal, state, and local governments Increase effectiveness of advertising and contact strategies Support the microtargeted advertising campaign Create the contact frame (e.g., addresses and telephone numbers) Validate Respondent Submissions Validate respondent addresses for those without a Census ID and prevent fraudulent submissions Reduce Field Workload for Followup Activities Remove vacant and nonresponding occupied housing units from the nonresponse followup workload Optimize the number of contact attempts 12
13 Reengineering Field Operations Use technology to more efficiently and effectively manage the 2020 Census fieldwork. Streamlined Office and Staffing Structure Increased use of Technology Increased Management and Staff Productivity Area Manager of Operations Census Field Managers Automated and optimized work assignments Automated recruiting, training, payroll and expense reporting Ability to conduct address updates and enumeration on same device Reduced paper and manual processing Increased visibility into case status for improved workforce management Redesigned quality assurance operations Improved communications Census Field Supervisors Listers and Enumerators 13
14 Overview of 2020 Census Approach Address Canvassing Visit only the worst 25% of blocks and do the rest with aerial images and In-Office techniques Self- Response Use the internet! And offer option to respond without a Census ID (we do the work to get the ID) NRFU Use technology to make enumerators more efficient (case assignment daily and routing) AND use Administrative Records Special Operations Not a cost driver but we will use reengineering field techniques 14
15 Reduce Costs by $5.2B Reengineering Address Canvassing Reduced field workload resulting from: In- Office Address Canvassing and Redesigned Quality Assurance Functions Optimizing Self-Response Reduced field workload resulting from engaging and motivating people to respond Reduced paper data capture Utilizing Administrative Records Reduced field workload resulting from: Use of administrative records and thirdparty data to remove vacant and nonresponding occupied housing units, and optimize the number of contact attempts Reengineering Field Operations Improved efficiencies resulting from: Automated and optimized work assignments Automated instrument for data collection Automated administrative functions Streamlined management structure Reduced total office square footage Estimated Cost Reduction of $5.2 billion as compared with implementing the 2010 Census in
16 Phases of the 2020 Census Program In the next census, we will be trying to reach an increasingly diverse and growing population of around 330 million people in more than 140 million housing units. The Census Bureau completed research in order to inform key design decisions by October We have completed 12 field tests since
17 The Path to the 2020 Census: Research and Testing 2013 Census Test Adaptive design Administrative records 2014 Census Test Internet collection Notify Me (pre-registration) BYOD Adaptive design Administrative records 2015 Address Validation Test Statistical Models In-Office and In-Field canvassing Partial-block canvassing 2015 Optimizing Self-Response Test Notify Me (pre-registration) Advertising, Partnership, and Promotion Real Time Non-ID 2015 Census Test Automated training Reengineered Field Structure Adaptive design (optimize) Administrative records Device as a service 2015 National Content Test Race and Hispanic Origin Same Sex relationship Self-response rates 17
18 The Path to the 2020 Census: Research and Testing *** Move away from research and closer to building for 2020 (production readiness) 2016 Census Test Finalize NRFU design Integrate self and non response MAF Coverage Study Quality control In-Office methods Produce MAF Coverage measure 2016 Address Canvassing Test Test In-Field Methods Change to new geography type (BCU) 2017 Puerto Rico Test Test different address scheme Build and test all the systems for PR 2017 Census Test Update Enumerate methods New Enumeration Types (TEA) Systems integration 2018 End-to-End Test Test and validate operations, systems, infrastructure, and integration Produce data products This is the finish line 18
19 2020 Decennial Census Summary Innovation is happening! Issued the 2020 Census Operational Plan on October 6, 2015 Defines all the operations in 2020 Census Defines all the field tests Major census operational design decisions Defines a plan to answer all remaining questions to complete design Quality expectations for the high-level design SAVE over $5 billion dollars The operational plan can be found HERE: Major 2020 Census development formally began in early
20 Check-In! Can you name the six major tests from that lead the way to the 2020 Census design? 20
21 Why work at Census? 21
22 Jobs We have over 400 vacancies! We are hiring like crazy! Here are the job announcements for the jobs for which I am recruiting: Mathematical Statistician: IT Specialist (2 different jobs): - Specialist - Application Software Project Management Specialist: Statistician: We prefer NCRN schools, so you have an advantage 22
23 Salary Undergrad students generally start at GS-7 level Graduate students generally start at GS-9 level Annual raises GS-7 to GS-9 to GS-11 to GS-12 GS-13 is competitive apply, interview, and accept Math Stat GS-7 step 1 $47,962 GS-9 step 1 $58,668 GS-11 step 1 $69,427 GS-12 step 1 $77,490 GS-13 step 1 $92,145 IT Specialist GS-7 step 1 $47,262 GS-9 step 1 $55,670 GS-11 step 1 $64,650 GS-12 step 1 $77,490 GS-13 step 1 $92,145 Statistician/Program Management GS-7 step 1 $43,684 GS-9 step 1 $53,439 GS-11 step 1 $64,650 GS-12 step 1 $77,490 GS-13 step 1 $92,145 23
24 U.S. Census Bureau Organizational Structure Equal Employment Opportunity Office Policy Coordination Office Director Deputy Director Office for Risk Management and Program Evaluation Associate Director for Communications ADCOM Associate Director for Administration and Chief Financial Officer ADACFO Associate Director for Information Technology and Chief Information Officer ADITCIO Associate Director for Field Operations ADFO Associate Director for Economic Programs ADEP Associate Director for Demographic Programs ADDP Associate Director for Decennial Census Programs ADDC Program Directorates Associate Director for Research and Methodology ADRM Decennial Directorates 10-year census and the American Community Survey Demographic people/households Economic businesses/governments/establishments 24
25 Work/Life Balance 40 Hours a week! Really! Great retirement plan Great vacation (13 days a year) and sick leave (13 days a year) 10 paid holidays Teleworking Alternate Work Schedule (AWS) work 9 or 10 hrs and get days off Free parking and casual attire Metro stop for mass transit Day care center Tons of sports leagues 100 percent tuition reimbursement Easy to change careers I did 3 times. 25
26 Come and See After you apply and you get an interview. Walk around and see that people are happy at the Census Bureau Interesting Jobs that make a difference People stay here When they leave they come back Great job security Produce important data that everyone uses and relies on Smart, fun, hardworking, good people work at Census 26
27 Questions Bob Colosi
28 Backup slides 28
29 Census Data Collection From 1790 until 1970, virtually all data collection was done by door-to-door personal interviewing. In 1970, began using mailout/mailback data collection, followed by personal interviewing for addresses that did not mail back a form. By 2010, 90% of the addresses were designated for mailout/mailback. Until 1940, essentially all households and individuals were asked to answer all questions. From 1940 through 2000, the decennial census included both a short form sent to most households and a long form sent to a sample. For the 2010 Census, all households received the short form. The American Community Survey now collects and produces annual statistics on the detailed characteristics data previously collected and produced only once each decade by the long form. 29
30 Census Data Processing (1 of 2) From 1790 until 1890, millions of census forms had to be tabulated by hand. Innovations included the punch card and electronic tabulator technology developed by Herman Hollerith to speed the tallying of the 1890 census. This technology later became the basis for a company called IBM. The Census Bureau continued updating and using Hollerith's electronic tabulators until the 1950 census when they were replaced by UNIVAC (1 st computer). 30
31 Census Data Processing (2 of 2) Developed FOSDIC (Film Optical Sensing Device for Input to Computers) to speed the transfer of paper responses to electronic form. The Census Bureau used updated versions of FOSDIC for the 1970, 1980, and 1990 censuses. FOSDIC proved so successful that it was not replaced until the introduction of optical character recognition for Census For the 2000 and 2010 Census, used an optical character recognition system to scan and electronically interpret the responses on paper forms. 31
32 Beyond the Major 2020 Design Decisions 2015 Core Programmatic Work Census Questionnaire Assistance (aka Telephony solution) Language and Content Programs Early work on the Integrated Communications Campaign (including partnerships) Beginning work on coverage improvement programs Beginning work on the planning and design of census operations in Puerto Rico and the Island Areas Planning and design of the geographic programs Mobile services Business architecture Operational and systems readiness And more 32
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