Methods for the identification of
|
|
- Laura Lucinda Lee
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 EFSA Scientific Colloquium XV on Emerging Risks in Food, 12 Oct 2010, Parma Methods for the identification of emerging risks: an overview. Rafael Popper PREST - Manchester Institute of Innovation Research Rafael.Popper@manchester.ac.uk University of Manchester, UK 1
2 Outline On methods What for? Horizon Scanning Risk analysis (identification/assessment/management) Foresight Which framework? Which method(s)? Does the Geo-R&D Context influences selection? How many methods? How to contribute to the (post)indentification process? How to combine them? What methodology? On identification of emerging risks & (missed) opportunities Identification strategy Scanning strategy, Filtering strategy, Knowledge sources, etc. Identification methodology Scanning frameworks, Methods, etc. Post-identification strategy Interconnecting, Assessing, Managing, Responding, Communicating, etc. Questions? 2
3 On methods
4 On methods: What for? Horizon Scanning The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Futures research (foresight) may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends (Defra, 2002). Risk analysis a systematic and strategic process of identification, assessment and (sometimes) management of uncertain issues (e.g. hazards and developments), which may potentially develop into threats or (missed) opportunities, depending on their perceived probability of occurrence and type of impacts (Popper, 2010). NEW Foresight an open and collective process of purposeful, future-oriented exploration, involving deliberation between heterogeneous actors in science and technology arenas, with a view to formulating shared visions and strategies that take better account of future opportunities and threats (Keenan and Popper, 2007). 4
5 Why foresight? Foresight is increasingly becoming a key and systematic instrument for the development and implementation of research and science, technology and innovation (STI) policy But, what type of foresight? 5
6 SMART Foresight: Key phases S Scoping (Pre- Foresight) Transforming Mobilising (Renewal) (Recruitment) t) Realising Anticipating (Action) (Generation) 6
7 SMART Foresight: Key features Scoping Mobilising Anticipating Realising Transforming Aspirations Aim Objectives Resources Scale & Domain Methodology Etc. Engagement Recruiting experts Steering Group Champions Facilitators Users Etc. Possible Futures Generating visions Scenarios Roadmaps Trends/drivers Key technologies Etc. Commitment Recommendation s Strategies Decisions Actions Plans Etc. Intelligence Renewal Evaluation Learning Impact assessment Dissemination Etc. 7
8 On methods: Which framework? Classification of methods By their nature Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative By their knowledge source Based on creativity and insight Based on interaction and participation Based on expertise and interdisciplinary Based on evidence and information By their potential contributions to The Horizon Scanning process The Risk Analysis process The Foresight process 8
9 On methods: Which method(s)? Qualitative Quantitative Semi-quantitative Methods providing meaning to events and perceptions. Such interpretations tend to be based on subjectivity or creativity often difficult to corroborate. 1. Backcasting 2. Brainstorming 3. Citizens panels 4. Conferences/workshops 5. Essays /Scenario writing 6. Expert panels 7. Genius forecasting 8. Interviews 9. Literature review 10. Morphological analysis 11. Relevance trees /logic charts 12. Role play / Acting 13. Scanning 14. Scenario /Scenario workshops 15. Science fictioning (SF) 16. Simulation gaming 17. Surveys 18. SWOT analysis 19. Weak signals /Wildcards Methods measuring variables and apply statistical analyses on quantitative data. 20. Benchmarking 21. Bibliometrics 22. Indicators / time series analysis 23. Modelling 24. Patent analysis 25. Trend extrapolation / impact analysis By their nature? Methods which apply mathematical principles to quantify subjectivity, rational judgements and viewpoints of experts and commentators (i.e. weighting opinions) 26. Cross-impact / structural analysis 27. Delphi 28. Key / Critical technologies 29. Multi-criteria analysis 30. Polling / Voting 31. Quantitative scenarios / SMIC 32. Roadmapping 33. Stakeholder analysis Source: R. Popper (2008) 9
10 On methods: Which method(s)? Popper (2008) Is the selection influenced by the intrinsic nature of methods? Yes, very high
11 On methods: Which method(s)? By their knowledge source? Creativity The only real valuable thing is intuition Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world (Albert Einstein, 1929) Expertise If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right, but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong (Arthur Clarke,1962) Interaction the world is ruled by those who show up (Anonymus) Evidence There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics (Benjamin Disraeli, 1924.
12 On methods: Which method(s)? Is the selection influenced by the capabilities of th methods? Yes, highly Popper (2008) On average, foresight studies use from 5 to 6 methods
13 On methods: Mind the process! Potential contribution of qualitative methods Source: Popper (2008) Methods /Activities ii Pre-Foresight Recruitment Foresight Phases Generation Action Renewal Type of method 1 Backcasting 2 Brainstorming 3 Citizens Panels 4 Conferences/Workshops 5 Essays/Scenario Writing 6 Expert Panels 7 Genius Forecasting 8 Interviews 9 Literature Review (LR) 10 Morphological Analysis Qualitative 11 Relevance Trees/Logic Charts 12 Role play/acting 13 Scanning 14 Scenarios/Scenario i Workshops 15 Science Fictioning (SF) 16 Simulation Gaming 17 Surveys 18 SWOT Analysis 19 Weak Signals/Wild Cards Legend of symbols: little/no contribution [], some contribution [], significant contribution [], major contribution [] 13
14 On methods: Mind the process! Potential contribution of quantitative and semi-quantitative methods 20 Benchmarking Methods / Activities Pre-Foresight Recruitment Foresight Phases Generation Action Renewal Type of method 21 Bibliometrics 22 Indicators/Time Series Analysis (TSA) Quantitative 23 Modelling 24 Patent Analysis 25 Trend Extrapolation/Impact p Analysis 26 Cross-impact/Structural Analysis (SA) 27 Delphi 28 Key/Critical Technologies 29 Multi-criteria it i Analysis Semi- 30 Polling/Voting Quantitative 31 Quantitative Scenarios/SMIC 32 Roadmapping 33 Stakeholders Analysis/MACTOR Legend of symbols: little/no contribution [], some contribution [], significant contribution [], major contribution [] Note: the tables (above) provide an impressionistic view of the contribution that 33 methods might make to each phase of the foresight process. The potential contribution is represented with bullets. For example: Backcasting may have little/no contribution [] in the Pre-Foresight, Recruitment and Renewal Phases, whereas significant contribution [] in the Generation and Action Phases 14 Source: Popper (2008)
15 On methods: Combining methods Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank)= below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60% 15
16 On methods: Combining methods Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank)= below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60% Popper (2008) 16
17 On methods: Combining methods Frequency of Popper (2008) combinations L (or blank)= below 19% M = 20-39% H = 40-59% VH = above 60% Popper (2008) Popper (2008) 17
18 On methods: Geo-R&D context 18 quantitative semi-quantitative qualitative
19 On identification of emerging risks & (missed) opportunities
20 Identification Scope Top-Down I nwar rd-loo oking Horizon Scanning Strategy 1 ILTD Horizon Scanning Strategy 3 ILBU Horizon Scanning Strategy 2 OLTD Horizon Scanning Strategy 4 OLBU Outwa ard-lo ookin ng Bottom-Up
21 Identification Sources (1/3) 2009 Space (primarily Inward-Looking) Outward-Looking & IL: 2010 Space interviews Etc. interviews social networks blogs scientific journals
22 Identification Sources (2/3) Knowledge sources prospective estrategic n senselogi ical critical intuit tive commo social children networks workshops? research science fiction? projects media blogs surveys expert workshops books journal articles interviews other sources unfamili ar familiar knowledgeabl e expert
23 Identification Sources (3/3) Introducing SNA and systemic analyses into our Mapping Foresight work In a way, research in Social Sciences is the binder of all research topics in the foresight exercises. This is quite the opposite with research within Humanities, which have the least salient links to other research topics in the exercise. A Natural sciences A04 Chemical Science (key broker) A06 Biological Science B Engineering & Technology B02 Industrial Biotechnology & Food Sciences B04 Manufacturing Engineering B09 Environmental Engineering (key broker) B10 Materials Engineering g B11 Biomedical Engineering B12 Electrical and Electronic Engineering B13 Communications Technologies (key broker) C Medical sciences C01 Medicine General C05 Pharmacology & Pharmaceutical Sciences C12 Public Health & Health Services (key broker) D Agricultural sciences D01 Crop and Pasture Production (key broker) E E01 E02 E03 E04 E05 Social sciences Education Economics Commerce, management, tourism & services Policy and Political Science (key broker) Studies in human society 23
24 Health (392 projects scanned ) 6.1 billion FP7 (11%) Coo (19%) Biotechnology, generic tools and medical technologies for human health Translating research for human health Optimising the delivery of health care to European citizens 47, 12% 58, 15% 53, 14% 32, 8% Other actions High-throughput research 234, 59% 35, 9% Detection, diagnosis and monitoring Prediction of suitability, safety and efficacy of therapies 90, 24% 76, 19% 33, 8% Innovative therapeutic approaches and interventions Integration of biological data and processes: large-scale data gathering, systems biology Research on the brain and related diseases, human development and ageing Transnational research on infectious diseases Transnational research on other major diseases: cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes/obesity, rare diseases, other chronic diseases Translation of clinical outcome into clinical practice, including better use of medicines Quality, efficiency and solidarity of health care systems Enhanced health promotion and disease prevention 36 WI-WE 14 Wild Cards 22 Weak Signals 5 Horizontal cooperation and support actions SIC A on Optimising the delivery of health care to European citizens Coordination and Support actions Responding to EU policy needs Specific International C ooperation Actions (SIC A)
25 KBBE (139 projects scanned ) 1.9 billion FP7 (4%) Coo (6%) Sustainable production and management of biological resources from land, forest and aquatic environments Fork to farm: Food (including seafood), health and well-being 14; 12% Life sciences, biotechnology and biochemistry for sustainable non-food products and processes 38; 31% 69; 57% Enabling research 1 Increased sustainability of all production systems (agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture) Optimised animal health production and welfare across agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture 11, 8% 10, 7% 29, 22% 2 Socio-economic research and support to policies Consumers Nutrition 9, 6% 9, 6% 16 WI-WE 24, 17% 10 Wild Cards 6 Weak Signals Food processing Food quality and safety Environmental impacts and total food chain Novel sources of biomass and bioproducts Marine and fresh-water biotechnology (blue biotechnology) Industrial biotechnology: Novel high added-value bioproducts and bioprocesses Biorefinery Environmental biotechnology Emerging trends in biotechnology
26 Interpretations are really important McArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the World South North We are her e
27 Identification methodology Identification Framework Assessment We S = Situation-bounded Wi S4 emerging / new issues Impact Probability Uncertainty Importance level of unce ertainty We We We n interp pretatio discontinuation Wi S1 Wi S3 re-emerging issues issues Wi S2 asse essment continuation issues past future
28 Identification: using workshops Step 1: ready historic/past issues
29 Identification: using workshops Step 2: steady issues generated by Your Team
30 Identification: using workshops Step 3: go! brainstorming on: Unexpected drivers synergies solutions to Grand Challenges your own work / expertise
31 Identification: using workshops Workshop Outcomes iknow outcomes wild situations Wild features / factors Interpretations Impacts Actors Actions* (Weak) Signals actions & recommendations Policy Business Research
32 Post-identification: interconnecting Issue Management System
33 Post-identification: interconnecting Identification of emerging issues top top top Wi-We Wi We keywords keywords keywords
34 Filters: European Grand Challenges
35 Filters: European Grand Challenges
36 interdisciplinary and interactive early warning system interconnecting knowledge (convergence-interdisciplinary) new research questions new research agendas impact on Grand Challenges identification of problems identification of solutions relevance to EU research sense-making pattern recognition emerging issues informing policy possible futures prototype
37 R P R. Popper (2010)
38 Post-identification: Communication strategy Policy Brief ID Links to FP7 Author(s) Contributor(s) Manifestation Strategic attention Type of impact Inspired by iknow workshops iknow interviews iknow delphi iknow scanning iknow Community Related to Links to ERA Impacts in Europe infrastructures peoples lives regulation & legislation defence & security government & politics environment & ecosystems science & technology Keywords Short description Surprising features Page 1 of 4
39 Exploiting iknow Policy Briefs Imaginary Call Thematic area(s) Research topic Objective Expected impact Importance for Europe Page 4 of 4
40 Thank you! Any questions? Rafael Popper 40
Horizon Scanning. Why & how to launch it in Lithuania? Prof. Dr. Rafael Popper
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD Horizon Scanning Why & how to launch it in Lithuania? Prof. Dr. Rafael Popper Principal Scientist in Business, Innovation and Foresight VTT Technical Research
More informationUsing Foresight and Scenarios for Anticipation of Skill Needs
Using Foresight and Scenarios for Anticipation of Skill Needs Martin Bakule National Training Fund National Observatory for Employment and Training Methods in Skills Needs Anticipation: A Guide on Foresights,
More informationThe use of Foresight around the globe an overview and more
The use of Foresight around the globe an overview and more EFP Rafael Popper rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of Innovation Research EFMN Introductory remarks In both futures
More informationForest sector modeling and foresight studies how to combine?
Forest sector modeling and foresight studies how to combine? Lauri Hetemäki & Elias Hurmekoski Head of Foresight and Policy Support Programme, EFI Professor, University of Eastern Finland lauri.hetemaki@efi.int
More informationWhat is the role of social sciences and humanities (SSH) in Futures Research?
A research question inspiring the work of the iknow project (www.iknowfutures.eu) and the Mapping activities of the European Foresight Platform (EFP) What is the role of social sciences and humanities
More informationCustomising Foresight
Customising Foresight Systemic and Synergistic Foresight Approaches Systemic and Synergistic Foresight Approaches in a small country context Higher School of Economics Moscow 13.10.2011 Ozcan Saritas &
More informationUsing foresight techniques in the implementation of innovation policies
Using foresight techniques in the implementation of innovation policies Yiannis Bakouros Assοciate Professor Management of Technology Research Lab.(MATER) University of Western Macedonia The regional dimension
More informationWho cares about the future anyway? We all should!
Who cares about the future anyway? We all should! Jonathan Veale M.Des., M.E.S. CASHC/TORONTO May 21, 2015 Government and public service is too important for it to fail through lack of care; through the
More informationFifth Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources
Fifth Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration 1998-2002 Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Bruno Hansen Life Sciences and Technologies Agriculture
More informationTorsti Loikkanen, Principal Scientist, Research Coordinator VTT Innovation Studies
Forward Looking Activities Governing Grand Challenges Vienna, 27-28 September 2012 Support of roadmap approach in innovation policy design case examples on various levels Torsti Loikkanen, Principal Scientist,
More informationResearch Development Request - Profile Template. European Commission
Research Development Request - Profile Template European Commission Research Development Request Profile The following table can be used as a template for drafting a Research Development Request profile.
More informationSCAR response to the 2 nd Foresight Expert Group Report
SCAR response to the 2 nd Foresight Expert Group Report Teagasc 2030 One Year On Follow-up Workshop Dublin, 2 October 2009 François CONSTANTIN Scientific Officer DG RTD-E4 European Commission francois.constantin@ec.europa.eu
More informationSKILLS FORESIGHT. Systematic involving a welldesigned approach based on a number of phases and using appropriate tools
SKILLS ANTICIPATION BACKGROUND NOTE FEBRUARY 2017 MAKING SENSE OF EMERGING LABOUR MARKET TRENDS Foresight supports decisions in areas which involve long lead times, such as education and training, and
More informationIntroduction to Foresight
Introduction to Foresight Prepared for the project INNOVATIVE FORESIGHT PLANNING FOR BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT INTERREG IVb North Sea Programme By NIBR - Norwegian Institute for Urban and Regional Research
More informationForesight for policy-making
Foresight for policy-making Anne-Katrin Bock Joint Research Centre Foresight and Behavioural Insights Unit Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation Outline Ø Brief introduction to
More informationFORESIGHT METHOD HORIZONS. Module. Introduction to Foresight for Canada Beyond 150
HORIZONS FORESIGHT METHOD for Canada Beyond 50 OVERVIEW Where are we in the process? What is Horizons approach to foresight? How do the foresight tools fit together for Canada Beyond 50? 2 A NEW MODEL
More informationHORIZON 2020 BLUE GROWTH
HORIZON 2020 BLUE GROWTH in Horizon 2020 Info-Day, Paris 24th January 2014 2014-2020 Christos Fragakis Deputy Head of Unit Management of natural resources DG Research & Why a Blue Growth Focus Area in
More informationThe Method Toolbox of TA. PACITA Summer School 2014 Marie Louise Jørgensen, The Danish Board of Technology Foundation
The Method Toolbox of TA PACITA Summer School 2014 Marie Louise Jørgensen, mlj@tekno.dk The Danish Board of Technology Foundation The TA toolbox Method Toolbox Classes of methods Classic or scientific
More informationA SYSTEMIC APPROACH TO KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY FORESIGHT. THE ROMANIAN CASE
A SYSTEMIC APPROACH TO KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY FORESIGHT. THE ROMANIAN CASE Expert 1A Dan GROSU Executive Agency for Higher Education and Research Funding Abstract The paper presents issues related to a systemic
More informationParticipatory backcasting: A tool for involving stakeholders in long term local development planning
Erasmus Intensive Programme Equi Agry June 29 July 11, Foggia Participatory backcasting: A tool for involving stakeholders in long term local development planning Dr. Maurizio PROSPERI ( maurizio.prosperi@unifg.it
More informationCOMMITTEE ON COMMODITY PROBLEMS
October 2017 CCP:HF/JU 17/3 E COMMITTEE ON COMMODITY PROBLEMS JOINT MEETING OF THE THIRTY-NINTH SESSION OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL GROUP ON HARD FIBRES AND THE FORTY-FIRST SESSION OF THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL
More informationS&T Foresight & Horizon scanning Influencing R&D priorities Netherlands
S&T Foresight & Horizon scanning Influencing R&D priorities Netherlands Victor van Rij Ministry OCW - Netherlands Presentation for TIP- RIHR OECD workshop Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation
More informationHow to identify and prioritise research issues?
Processes to ensure quality, relevance and trust of the EU research and innovation funding system: How to identify and prioritise research issues? Lund, 8 July 2009 Jean-Michel Baer Director «Science,
More informationForesight for Canadian Animal Health. Shane Renwick DVM MSc Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA)
Foresight for Canadian Animal Health Shane Renwick DVM MSc Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) USAHA/AAVLD Greensboro, NC October, 2012 Shared Vision Framework Road Map Tools & Applications 2 Animal
More informationThe SONNETS Innovation Identification Framework
The SONNETS Innovation Identification Framework The project leading to this application has received funding from the European Union s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement
More informationEnhancing Government through the Transforming Application of Foresight
Addressing g the Future: Enhancing Government through the Transforming Application of Foresight Professor Ron Johnston Australian Centre for Innovation University of Sydney www.aciic.org.au Helsinki Institute
More informationMILAN DECLARATION Joining Forces for Investment in the Future of Europe
MILAN DECLARATION Joining Forces for Investment in the Future of Europe We, the political leaders and representatives of the Vanguard Initiative for New Growth through Smart Specialisation, call upon the
More informationThe Biological and Medical Sciences Research Infrastructures on the ESFRI Roadmap
The Biological and Medical Sciences s on the ESFRI Roadmap Position Paper May 2011 Common Strategic Framework for and Innovation 1 Role and Importance of BMS s European ESFRI BMS RI projects Systems Biology
More informationGetting the evidence: Using research in policy making
Getting the evidence: Using research in policy making REPORT BY THE COMPTROLLER AND AUDITOR GENERAL HC 586-I Session 2002-2003: 16 April 2003 LONDON: The Stationery Office 14.00 Two volumes not to be sold
More informationGuide Editors. Guide Authors. About the Guide. Acknowledgements. Legal Notice. PREST (UK) Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper
Guide Editors PREST (UK) Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper Guide Authors ARC Fund (Bulgaria) Maria Alexandrova, Denitsa Marinova and Daniela Tchonkova PREST (UK) Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper IE HAS
More informationWhyisForesight Important for Europe?
Tokyo, 3rd International Conference on Foresight WhyisForesight Important for Europe? Jean-Michel BAER Director, Science, Economy and Society DG Research, European Commission, Brussels -1- The Challenge
More informationHorizon Societal Challenge 1: Health, demographic change and wellbeing. Jeremy Bray DG Research & Innovation European Commission
Horizon 2020 Societal Challenge 1: Health, demographic change and wellbeing Jeremy Bray DG Research & Innovation European Commission National NHS day Leeds, UK, 29 January 2014 What is Horizon 2020? The
More informationGUIDE TO SPEAKING POINTS:
GUIDE TO SPEAKING POINTS: The following presentation includes a set of speaking points that directly follow the text in the slide. The deck and speaking points can be used in two ways. As a learning tool
More informationfor Integrating Foresight in Research Infrastructures Policy Formulation
for Integrating Foresight in Research Infrastructures Policy Formulation Guide Editors PREST (UK) Michael Keenan and Rafael Popper Guide Authors ARC Fund (Bulgaria) Maria Alexandrova, Denitsa Marinova
More informationLooking over the Horizon Visioning and Backcasting for UK Transport Policy
Looking over the Horizon Visioning and Backcasting for UK Transport Policy Department for Transport New Horizons Research Programme 2004/05 David Banister The Bartlett School of Planning University College
More informationUNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III DE MADRID
: Global Change and Sustainable Development I V E R S ID A D U N I D III R D A M D E C A R L O S II I UNIVERSIDAD CARLOS III DE MADRID Global Change and Sustainable Development The research group on Global
More informationResearch & Development (R&D) defined (3 phase process)
Research & Development (R&D) defined (3 phase process) Contents Research & Development (R&D) defined (3 phase process)... 1 History of the international definition... 1 Three forms of research... 2 Phase
More informationPosition Paper on Horizon ESFRI Biological and Medical Research Infrastructures
Position Paper on Horizon 2020 ESFRI Biological and Medical Research Infrastructures Executive summary The Biological and Medical Research Infrastructures welcome the European Commission proposal on Horizon
More informationA Framework for Understanding Food Systems Foresight and Scenario Analysis
A Framework for Understanding Food Systems Foresight and Scenario Analysis Understanding Foresight Food Systems Foresight Why Foresight4Food Food security and stability, migration, transparency Governance
More informationSEAS-ERA STRATEGIC FORUM
Arnoldas Milukas Head of Unit DG Research & Environment Directorate Horizon 2020 The EU Framework Programme for 2014-2020 2 nd SEAS-ERA STRATEGIC FORUM Brussels 6 th of February 2013 EU Research policy
More informationTerms of Reference. Call for Experts in the field of Foresight and ICT
Terms of Reference Call for Experts in the field of Foresight and ICT Title Work package Lead: Related Workpackage: Related Task: Author(s): Project Number Instrument: Call for Experts in the field of
More informationCommon Features and National Differences - preliminary findings -
Common Features and National Differences - preliminary findings - Knud Böhle and Systems Analysis Research Centre Karlsruhe Karlsruhe, Germany Outline 1. Some indicators, used in the general section of
More informationRACE TO THE TOP: Integrating Foresight, Evaluation, and Survey Methods
RACE TO THE TOP: Integrating Foresight, Evaluation, and Survey Methods Public Sector Foresight Network July 11, 2014 Orlando, Florida For more information, contact Jamila Kennedy, (202) 512-6833 or kennedyjj@gao.gov.
More informationBuilding a foresight system in the government Lessons from 11 countries
Building a foresight system in the government Lessons from 11 countries DRAFT for discussion only Public Service Foresight Network 20 October 2017 If you have information to improve this study please contact:
More informationForesight Impact on Policy making and Lessons for New Member States and Candidate Countries Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process
Foresight Impact on Policy making and Lessons for New Member States and Candidate Countries Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process Cristiano CAGNIN, Philine WARNKE Fabiana SCAPOLO, Olivier
More informationSystemic Foresight Methodology
Systemic Foresight Methodology h d l Advancements in theory and practice Dr. Ozcan Saritas Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk Can you recognise your country? Can you recognise your country? Everyone has bad
More informationIdentification of Emerging g Food Risks: Results of an International Delphi Survey
Identification of Emerging g Food Risks: Results of an International Delphi Survey Hans Marvin RIKILT-Institute of Food Safety EFSA Scientific Colloquium XV on Emerging Risks, 12-13 October 2010, Parma,
More informationBelgian Position Paper
The "INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION" COMMISSION and the "FEDERAL CO-OPERATION" COMMISSION of the Interministerial Conference of Science Policy of Belgium Belgian Position Paper Belgian position and recommendations
More informationForesight and Scenario Development
Foresight and Scenario Development Anita Pirc Velkavrh Head of Foresight and Sustainability group European Environment Agency ESDN Annual conference, 22-23 June 2017, Prague EEA, environmental messages
More informationHorizon Scanning. Jennifer Harper Cassingena
FORESIGHT AND POLICIES AND STRATEGIES DEVELOPMENT FOR VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING (VET): TOOLS AND ADDED VALUE IN THE CONTEXT OF TRANSITION AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ETF, Turin, 8-9 March 2012 Horizon
More informationThe work under the Environment under Review subprogramme focuses on strengthening the interface between science, policy and governance by bridging
The work under the Environment under Review subprogramme focuses on strengthening the interface between science, policy and governance by bridging the gap between the producers and users of environmental
More informationIntegrated Transformational and Open City Governance Rome May
Integrated Transformational and Open City Governance Rome May 9-11 2016 David Ludlow University of the West of England, Bristol Workshop Aims Key question addressed - how do we advance towards a smart
More informationJoint Programming Initiative Healthy and Productive Seas and Oceans
Joint Programming Initiative Healthy and Productive Seas and Oceans About JPI Oceans An intergovernmental platform for long-term collaboration, increasing the impact of our investments in marine and maritime
More informationDoing, supporting and using public health research. The Public Health England strategy for research, development and innovation
Doing, supporting and using public health research The Public Health England strategy for research, development and innovation Draft - for consultation only About Public Health England Public Health England
More informationSocial Innovation 2015: Pathways to Social Change Vienna, November 18 th, Maria Schwarz-Woelzl (ZSI) & Wolfgang Haider (ZSI)
CASI - Public Participation in Developing a Common Framework for Assessment and Management of Sustainable Innovation Engaging citizens and stakeholders Social Innovation 2015: Pathways to Social Change
More informationHow to assess and manage sustainable innovations in the growing CE paradigm?
Action roadmaps paving the way towards electric mobility and circular economy Mika Naumanen & Rafael Popper How to assess and manage sustainable innovations in the growing CE paradigm? We are engaged in
More informationOutline. IPTS and the Information Society Unit IPTS Research Agenda on ICT for Governance
EUROCITIES Knowledge Society Forum, Lille, 28-30 October 2009 IPTS Exploratory Research on ICT-enabled governance models in EU cities Gianluca Misuraca IPTS Information Society Unit EUROCITIES Knowledge
More informationCO-ORDINATION MECHANISMS FOR DIGITISATION POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES:
CO-ORDINATION MECHANISMS FOR DIGITISATION POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES: NATIONAL REPRESENTATIVES GROUP (NRG) SUMMARY REPORT AND CONCLUSIONS OF THE MEETING OF 10 DECEMBER 2002 The third meeting of the NRG was
More informationTowards a Consumer-Driven Energy System
IEA Committee on Energy Research and Technology EXPERTS GROUP ON R&D PRIORITY-SETTING AND EVALUATION Towards a Consumer-Driven Energy System Understanding Human Behaviour Workshop Summary 12-13 October
More informationHousing and Living Foresight
Housing and Living Foresight - Approaches, Methods, and Ambitions - Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Research Workshop: Future Living June 3, Helsinki Academy of Finland Futures
More information3rd SCAR Foresight. XXIV EURAGRI Members Conference 2010 Broadening the Agricultural Challenges to Green Growth. Helsinki, 6 7 September 2010
3rd SCAR Foresight XXIV EURAGRI Members Conference 2010 Broadening the Agricultural Challenges to Green Growth Helsinki, 6 7 September 2010 Dr. Wolfgang Ritter Chair SCAR Foresight Group 1 Major global
More informationBasic Foresight Principles Rafael Popper PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester
Diálogo de Prospectiva Decanato de la Facultad de Administración UNIVALLE - ASCOLFA Basic Foresight Principles Rafael Popper rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research,
More informationAn introduction to the 7 th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development. Gorgias Garofalakis
An introduction to the 7 th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development Gorgias Garofalakis Contents What & why Potential impact Scope Inputs Framework Programme Budget and duration
More informationNORDIC ICT FORESIGHT Current state and future prospects in 2006
NORDIC ICT FORESIGHT Current state and future prospects in 2006 Toni Ahlqvist Senior Research Scientist, Project Manager VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland Technology Foresight and Technology Assessment
More informationBurgundy : Towards a RIS3
Burgundy : Towards a RIS3 Baiona (Vigo), Galicia 6 th November 2014 Anne FAUCHER & Nicolas BERTHAUT Burgundy Regional Council Questions you would like peers to discuss Main achievements so far : - Five
More informationFrom FP7 towards Horizon 2020 Workshop on " Research performance measurement and the impact of innovation in Europe" IPERF, Luxembourg, 31/10/2013
From FP7 towards Horizon 2020 Workshop on " Research performance measurement and the impact of innovation in Europe" IPERF, Luxembourg, 31/10/2013 Lucilla Sioli, European Commission, DG CONNECT Overview
More informationMulticriteria decision making (MCDA) in health care - against
Multicriteria decision making (MCDA) in health care - against Pavel Vorobiev Russian Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research ISPOR EUROPEAN CONGRESS, November, 2014 Economy - a scientific prediction
More informationOriginal: English Introduction to all things related to coastal fisheries and aquaculture data
Information Paper No. 1 Original: English Introduction to all things related to coastal fisheries and aquaculture data p. 3 1. Data is the cornerstone on which fisheries managers, scientists, communities
More informationNRC s Approach to Foresight and Competitive Intelligence
NRC s Approach to Foresight and Competitive Intelligence Evan W. Steeg, PhD Director, NRC Foresight I-CAN Innovation School, Module 4 24 October 2013 A Wondrous, Volatile, Dynamic Future Global Trends
More informationFuture Personas Experience the Customer of the Future
Future Personas Experience the Customer of the Future By Andreas Neef and Andreas Schaich CONTENTS 1 / Introduction 03 2 / New Perspectives: Submerging Oneself in the Customer's World 03 3 / Future Personas:
More informationBuilding the ERA of Knowledge for Growth. Proposals for the 7 th Research Framework Programme
Building the ERA of Knowledge for Growth Proposals for the 7 th Research Framework Programme 2007-2013 1 Specific Programmes Cooperation Collaborative research Ideas Frontier Research People Human Potential
More informationClusterNanoRoad
ClusterNanoRoad 723630 Expert Advisory Board Meeting Brussels April 11th, 2018 WP1 ClusterNanoRoad (723630) VALUE CHAIN OPPORTUNITIES: mapping and benchmarking of Cluster-NMBP RIS3 good practices [M1-M7]
More information6/14/2017. Engineering Future Cities The Value of Extreme Scenario Methodologies
Engineering Future Cities The Value of Extreme Scenario Methodologies Resilience Through Innovation Critical Local Transport and Utility Infrastructure Professor Chris Rogers University of Birmingham 12
More informationBackcasting for sustainable futures and system innovations
Backcasting for sustainable futures and system innovations Jaco Quist Technology Dynamics and Sustainable Development Group, Faculty of Technology, Policy, Management Delft University of Technology TiSD-Colloquium
More informationInvests 1,3 billion in sustainable food, farms, forests, oceans and bioeconomy
Invests 1,3 billion in sustainable food, farms, forests, oceans and bioeconomy Marine Resources UNIT European Commission DG RTD Horizon 2020 BG-01-2018: Towards a Baltic and North Sea research and innovation
More informationScience Impact Enhancing the Use of USGS Science
United States Geological Survey. 2002. "Science Impact Enhancing the Use of USGS Science." Unpublished paper, 4 April. Posted to the Science, Environment, and Development Group web site, 19 March 2004
More informationA Logical Framework to support design of long-term Euro-Mediterranean Cooperation on research and innovation. Outline
A Logical Framework to support design of long-term Euro-Mediterranean Cooperation on research and innovation 1. Introduction Outline In line with one of the objectives of MED-SPRING (Mediterranean Science,
More informationInternational Collaborative Initiative. Enhancing Foresight and Scenario Analysis for Global Food Systems
International Collaborative Initiative Enhancing Foresight and Scenario Analysis for Global Food Systems Foresight is a key tool that governments, private sector and civil society can jointly use to better
More informationTechnology Foresight in S&T Policy Making -Korean Experiences- Hyun Yim
Technology Foresight in S&T Policy Making -Korean Experiences- Hyun Yim Korea Institute of Science & Technology Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP) KISTEP Planning-Investment-Evaluation Role of Foresight
More informationACADEMY PROGRAMMES 1 ACADEMY OF FINLAND 2016
ACADEMY PROGRAMMES 1 Academy Programmes I) General information on Academy Programmes II) Academy Programmes 2017 III) Evaluation of the Academy Programmes 2 Academy Programmes Support scientific regeneration
More informationStakeholder and user involvement in backcasting and how this influences follow-up and spin-off
Stakeholder and user involvement in backcasting and how this influences follow-up and spin-off Jaco Quist Technology Dynamics & Sustainable Development Group, Delft University of Technology, NL Faculty
More informationEngaging UK Climate Service Providers a series of workshops in November 2014
Engaging UK Climate Service Providers a series of workshops in November 2014 Belfast, London, Edinburgh and Cardiff Four workshops were held during November 2014 to engage organisations (providers, purveyors
More informationAn overview of foresight methods. Maree Conway Thinking Futures/ Centre for Australian Foresight August 2013
An overview of foresight methods Maree Conway Thinking Futures/ Centre for Australian Foresight August 2013 Overview Context: why foresight? Methods Framework the Generic Foresight Process Input Methods
More informationResearch DG. European Commission. Sharing Visions. Towards a European Area for Foresight
Sharing Visions Towards a European Area for Foresight Sharing Visions Towards a European Area for Foresight Europe s knowledge base : key challenges The move towards a European Research Area (ERA) ERA
More informationCOST FP9 Position Paper
COST FP9 Position Paper 7 June 2017 COST 047/17 Key position points The next European Framework Programme for Research and Innovation should provide sufficient funding for open networks that are selected
More informationDo not copy BME Abbreviated Course Title (19 spaces or less): Design of Biomedical Systems and Devices
without the express written consent of the instructor. Department of Biomedical Engineering Course Title: Design of Biomedical Systems & Devices Instructors: Michael Christie/ Hamid Shahrestani Required
More informationForesight in Russia: Implications for Policy Making
Higher School of Economics Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge Foresight Centre Foresight in Russia: Implications for Policy Making Alexander Sokolov sokolov@hse.ru Research Workshop
More informationIRAHSS Pre-symposium Report
30 June 15 IRAHSS Pre-symposium Report SenseMaker - Emergent Pattern Report prepared by: Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd RPO organises the International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS),
More informationFP9 s ambitious aims for societal impact call for a step change in interdisciplinarity and citizen engagement.
FP9 s ambitious aims for societal impact call for a step change in interdisciplinarity and citizen engagement. The European Alliance for SSH welcomes the invitation of the Commission to contribute to the
More informationAnalysis of Economic and Social Networks in Gulf of Finland and Archipelago Sea area
Analysis of Economic and Social Networks in Gulf of Finland and Archipelago Sea area Annika Jaansoo University of Tartu Berlin, July 3, 2017 Agenda 1. Purpose of the study 2. Data and methodology 1. Purpose
More informationCOMMON STI PRIORITIES FOR A GROUP OF COUNTRIES: THE BRICS CASE
COMMON STI PRIORITIES FOR A GROUP OF COUNTRIES: THE BRICS CASE Sokolov A. 1, Shashnov S. 2, Kotsemir M. 3, Grebenyuk A. 4 1 sokolov@hse.ru; 2 shashnov@hse.ru; 3 mkotsemir@hse.ru; 4 grenebenyuk@hse.ru.
More informationEU expert briefing: Thematic context of the Seminar: Overall strategic approach
EU-China experts seminar on developing a joint initiative for cooperation in research and innovation on Food, Agriculture and Biotechnologies (FAB), Beijing 10-11 October 2013 EU expert briefing: Thematic
More informationHelsinki University of Technology Systems Analysis Laboratory. Ahti Salo. P.O. Box 1100, FIN TKK Finland
Developing the Foresight Knowledge Base Ahti Salo Helsinki University of Technology P.O. Box 1100, FIN-02015 TKK Finland Brainstorming Workshop 28.2-1.3.2005 1 Foresight Challenges at the European Level
More informationEffective Societal engagement in Horizon 2020
Effective Societal engagement in Horizon 2020 A Contribution to the EC Workshop 'Fostering innovative dialogue between researchers and stakeholders to meet future challenges' Land, Soil, Desertification,
More informationEvaluation of Strategic Area: Marine and Maritime Research. 1) Strategic Area Concept
Evaluation of Strategic Area: Marine and Maritime Research 1) Strategic Area Concept Three quarters of our planet s surface consists of water. Our seas and oceans constitute a major resource for mankind,
More informationImpacts and Risks Caused by AI Networking, and Future Challenges
Impacts and Risks Caused by AI Networking, and Future Challenges (From Studies on AI Networking in Japan) November 17, 2016 Tatsuya KUROSAKA Project Assistant Professor at Keio University Graduate School
More informationWhole of Society Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding
Whole of Society Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding WOSCAP (Whole of Society Conflict Prevention and Peacebuilding) is a project aimed at enhancing the capabilities of the EU to implement conflict prevention
More informationBrief presentation of the results Ioana ISPAS ERA NET COFUND Expert Group
Brief presentation of the results Ioana ISPAS ERA NET COFUND Expert Group Mandate of the Expert Group Methodology and basic figures for ERA-NET Cofund Efficiency of ERA-NET Cofund Motivations and benefits
More informationTechnology Assessment Methods and Techniques
Technology Assessment Methods and Techniques Technology in Sustainable Development www.sustainable-everyday.net Karel Mulder January 4, 2010 1 TA in 5 Steps 0. Problem orientation, research question &
More informationRENEW-ESSENCE Position Paper on FP9 September Michele Guerrini, Luca Moretti, Pier Francesco Moretti, Angelo Volpi
RENEW-ESSENCE 2030 Position Paper on FP9 September 2017 Michele Guerrini, Luca Moretti, Pier Francesco Moretti, Angelo Volpi Sommario Introduction... 2 Excellence in research... 4 Support to competitiveness...
More information