IfM research. Policy. Management. Technology. Economics and Policy. International Manufacturing. Strategy and Performance. Technology Management

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2 IfM research Policy Economics and Policy International Manufacturing Strategy and Performance Management Technology Management Industrial Sustainability Service and Support Distributed Information and Automation Technology Production Processes Industrial Photonics

3 Approach RESEARCH EDUCATION PRACTICE GOVERNMENT INDUSTRY UNIVERSITIES

4 Topics Overview of roadmapping Fast-start workshop methods Current research: navigating industrial emergence Summary & questions / discussion

5 Overview of roadmapping

6 2500 Business Premier Database, Beeton, D (2007) 2003 UN 2010? 1997 Philips / EIRMA 1991 ITRS 1945 Motorola CTM research Fast-start Customisation Integration Visualisation Industrial emergence 2005

7 Roadmaps as strategic lenses Business / strategic issue Information structure Roadmap lens Graphical style Understanding & communication

8 Roadmaps combine multiple perspectives Functional perspectives (Roadmap architecture) Typical viewpoints Roadmap framework (Supports integrated and aligned strategic and innovation planning) Time Past Short-term Medium-term Long-term Vision Knowledge types When? Information types commercial & strategic perspectives Design, development & production perspectives Technology & research perspectives Market Business Product Service System Technology Science Resources Route(s) forward Why? Pull What? Push How? Drivers Strategy Needs Form Function Performance Solutions Capabilities Resources Three key questions: 2) Where are we now? 3) How can we get there? 1) Where do we want to go?

9 Roadmaps provide a common visual language for strategy and innovation Process funnel (e.g. strategy, new product development) Market-Technology, Summary-Detail Iteration Requirements fluid Concepts fuzzy Many unknowns Many options Many assumptions Few constraints Scenarios Effort Time Requirements clear, stable Concepts clear, stable Fewer unknowns, risks understood Fewer options, greater constraints???????????????????? Divergent process Convergent process Explore Shape Plan Implement

10 Lucent Technologies technology roadmapping approach Source: Richard Albright The Albright Strategy Group,

11 Lucent Technologies technology roadmap Albright & Kappel (2003)

12 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, Red brick wall

13 Sony DRAM roadmap #1

14 Sony DRAM roadmap #2

15 Panasonic mobile communications roadmap

16 Roadmap example - display technology

17 Roadmap example - technology convergence Untangling the future, Paul Saffo, Business2.0, June 2002,

18 Roadmap example - particle physics Particle physics roadmap to the future, F. Giman, SLAC Summer Institute on Particle Physics, Aug

19 Fast-start workshop methods

20 Fast-start workshop methods Process funnel (e.g. strategy, innovation, new product development) S-Plan T-Plan standard

21 S-Plan workshop process concept Step 1: Scan ( Landscape ) - Large group activity - Broad scope - Share and capture perspectives - Link, focus and prioritise Step 2: Probe ( Landmark ) - Small group activity - Focused scope - Share and capture expertise - Organise, plan and action Google Earth

22 Typical roadmapping workshop activities

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24 23 March 2006 (Vol. 440, No. 7083)

25 UK Measurement & Standards for Emerging Technologies (MSET) Roadmaps a tactical and strategic tool Series of workshops exploring metrology aspects of various sectors Workshop 1: Transport Workshop 2: Secure environment Workshop 3: Sustainable consumption & Production Workshop 4: Emerging energy technologies Workshop 5: Healthcare & Bio-science Workshop 6: Intelligent connected world Workshop 7: Design Engineering & Advanced manuf g Workshop 8: Built Environment Workshop 9 Cross-cutting Metrology themes & priorities

26 Japanese METI roadmap

27 Current research Navigating industrial emergence

28 Science-to-industry trajectory Public Sector Investment Successful navigation of emergent barriers, enablers, inhibitors, timing issues and uncertainties Lack of understanding and/or awareness of industry-level factors, e.g.: Industrial design Manufacturing strategy Production scale-up Private Sector Sales Supply networks Regulatory environment Basic Research Development & Scale-up Commercial Operation Mature Industry Time Source: E O Sullivan

29 IfM IMRC Emerging Industries Programme (EIP) Vision To understand the dynamics of emerging industrial systems in order to enhance the UK s ability to rapidly exploit its scientific and technological capabilities. Aims Support firms navigating the barriers, inhibitors and uncertainties associated with emerging industrial systems Support government and public agencies in accelerating the emergence of industries for optimal benefit to the national economy

30 Mapping industrial emergence - learning from history Automotive Battery Catalytic converter Cheese Computer Digital camera Displays (TFT-LCD) Internet Low temp Medical imaging - MRI - Ultrasound - Tomography - X-ray Mobile phone Orthopaedic trauma Personal music Photovoltaic Semiconductors Silicon gyro Software Synthetic diamond Wireless

31 EIP, 30/1/08 (RP) Digital cameras 500BC Precursor Embryonic Nurture Ramp up Growth Mat./Conv. Application Networked (Video) Still image Digital Chemical Enablers 1704: Newton publishes Opticks 1694: Photochemical effect c1500: Camera obscura for drawing / painting (Leonardo da Vinci) c1200: Silver nitrate 11th Century: Pinhole & Camera obscura concepts and experiments (Persia, China) 500BC: pinhole effect observed (Aristotle, Euclid) 1843: Recording telegraph ( fax ) 1861: Pantelegraph ( fax ) - illustrations Communications 1903: Photoelectric Telephotography s: Electro-mechanical TV 1927: Modern TV Digital Camera 1964: Digital video from space 1949: Pentaprism SLR (Contax) 1947: First commercial Polaroid instant camera 1925: 35mm film, Leica 1972: Texas 1895: First moving pictures Instruments 1880: Eastman -> 1900 Brownie design for 1861: First colour photo filmless 1839: Daguerreotype analogue 1826: First permanent photograph (Nicéphore Niépce) camera Chemical-based technology 1961: First description of how to produce still digital photos using mosaic photosensor (JPL - space missions) USA ARPANET 1976: CCD from space : First digital camera - Kodak (technical demonstrator) megapixel CCD development programmes (Fairchild Semiconductors, RCA, Texas Instruments) 1969: Charge-coupled device (CCD) invented - AT&T Bell Labs Transistor development (Moore s law) Digital Emergence 1974: First commercial CCD (100x100 pixel) Astronomy? (high end?) 1981: First digital still camera (Sony Mavica) 1984: Prototype, 1984 Olympic Games 1986: First megapixel sensor (Kodak) 1986: First analogue electronic camera (Canon RC-701) Cellular phone development New markets Liquid crystal display development Battery technology development (portable devices) Japan 1988: Canon RC-250 Xapshot (consumer); Nikon QV- 100C press camera; Fuji DS-1P (first true digital camera?) 1991: First webacm (coffee pot, University of Cambridge) Expensive, low resolution, printing Early 1990s: Digital cameras with cellular phone transmission capability (Kodak, Olympus) 1990: First commercially available modern digital camera (Logitech Fotoman) Early professional market Complementary developments 1991: Professional SLR (Kodak- Nikon DCS) 1989: Internet / www (CERN) Live streaming 2002: First USA camera webcam phone (Sanyo + Sprint) (pornography) 1996: JenniCam 1999: Big Brother (reality TV) 1996: First CompactFlash - Kodak DC : First camera with ability to record video clips(?) - Ricoh RDC-1; 1995: LCD display (Casio QV-10) 1997: Digital camera with mobile phone - Canon First cell phone with integrated cameras, Japan -Sharp J-SH04 (J-Phone) 1999: First digital SLR developed entirely by a major manufacturer - Nikon D1 (2.74 megapixel, <$6,000) 2000: First D-SLR camera for nonprofessionals (Fujifilm FinePix S1 Pro) 2003: First <$1,000 D- SLR camera marketed to consumers (Canon 300D, 6MP) Consumer market Developments supporting take up of digital photography: solid state memory, PCs; Printers; Internet, ; Scanning; Imaging processing, Flickr.com; Digital photo frames, etc. 1998: JPEG & MPEG standards 1998: Hendy s law (pixels/$)

32 Phase, transitions, milestones and trajectories of industrial emergence Scale (e.g. size, sales) Science demonstrators Science - Technology transition Applied science demonstrators Technology demonstrators Technology - Application transition Application demonstrators Commercial application demonstrators Application - Market transition Price-performance demonstrators Mass market demonstrators Mass market Emergence Fail? Disrupt / Substitute? Renew Decline Precursor Embryonic Nurture Growth Mature Decline / Renew Time Science dominated emergence Technology dominated emergence Application dominated emergence Market dominated emergence

33 S-T-A-M industrial emergence framework Precursor phase S - T transition Embryonic phase T - A transition Nurture phase A - M transition Growth phase Science demonstrators Applied science demonstrators Technology demonstrators Application demonstrators Commercial application demonstrators Priceperformance demonstrators Mass market demonstrators Mass market Science dominated emergence Technology dominated emergence Application dominated emergence Market dominated emergence Observing underpinning scientific phenomena through to the first demonstration of applied science potential Translating the potential of science into technology, demonstrating that it is sufficiently robust to be integrated into a functional system Improving the reliability and performance of the technology to a point where an application can be demonstrated in the field Developing the technology and application to a point where commercial potential can be demonstrated through revenue generation Improving the price and performance of the application to a point where sustainable business potential can be demonstrated Translating priceperformance demonstrators into a market with mass growth potential Market, commercial and business development leading to sustainable industrial growth

34 Mapping transitions framework Trends & drivers Precursor Embryonic Nurture Growth Mature Renew / decline Science S-T Technology T-A Application A-M Market Market Regulation & standards Industrial dynamics Business Application market / customers Business context Business models Business strategies Market / demand pull dynamics App Value creation Service Product After-sales support Distribution Production Procurement & supply Design Development System focus Value creation Value capture Resources Research Finance Facilities Enabling technology Complementary developments Skills Processes & organisation Capability / supply push dynamics Partnerships & networks Demand side enablers

35 Principles of industrial emergence Engine of emergence Demand Initial conditions matter Emergence funnel of technological and commercial uncertainty (Focus & Scope) Catalytic events Demandsupply coupling Time ŌEngine of emergenceõ Supply Multi-level application (sector & firm) Initial conditions matter Emergence ŌfunnelÕ of technological and commercial uncertainty Demand Catalytic events Demandsupply coupling Time Supply

36 Way forward Development and testing of tool modules: Environmental scan Organisational scan Emergence roadmapping Investment review guidance Publications & training

37 Summary

38 Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/factsheet.pdf