The Weakness. of the Nuclear Believers Case
|
|
|
- Ashlee Griffin
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Weakness of the Nuclear Believers Case
2 Nuclear weapons The work you are engaged in is serious, important, and urgent. But there is real hope.
3 Nuclear weapons Sometimes people think that the fight against nuclear weapons is unwinnable, that the other side is invulnerable, and that we can only win if we make an extraordinary effort, play our best game, do the nearly impossible. [pause] But I say: be kind and courteous to nuclear believers. Because they are going to lose. Their position is extraordinarily weak.
4 Nuclear weapons Pros Cons If you graph the pros and cons of nuclear weapons...
5 Nuclear weapons Pros Cons... the cons are substantial. Nuclear weapons are dangerous. A single bomb dropped on a city can kill hundreds of thousands of people.
6 Nuclear weapons Pros Cons And because nuclear war seems likely to spiral out of control, any use could lead to unimaginable, worldwide destruction.
7 Nuclear weapons Pros Cons But nuclear believers say nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantee of security, they provide leverage in a dangerous world, they are the backbone of the world s alliances, and they confer greatness. [click] The pros, they say, are greater than the cons.
8 Value So I d like to examine with you the foundations of this belief in the value of nuclear weapons.
9 Value Nuclear believers--the people with a fervent faith in nuclear weapons--are confident; they are sure that the people who have doubts about the value of nuclear weapons are foolish.
10 Value But the fact is the nuclear believers position is surprisingly weak: there is very little evidence, what evidence there is is doubtful,...
11 Value... and the meaning of one of the key events is now being questioned. On top of all that, nuclear believers have a troubling track record: they have been wrong again and again.
12 Let s start with the evidence. Evidence
13 Psychological The first problem is the psychological nature of nuclear deterrence.
14 Psychological You may think that what s important about nuclear weapons is that they make big explosions.
15 Psychological Nuclear deterrence But nuclear believers say it is nuclear deterrence that matters.
16 Psychological Nuclear deterrence Threats Deterrence is using threats to prevent an action.
17 Psychological Nuclear deterrence Threats Inside the mind And threats operate inside the mind.
18 Psychological The difficulty is that it s hard to measure inside someone s head. Science is about measuring.
19 Psychological Truth isn t objective unless you can measure it, test it, and other people can reproduce the results.
20 Psychological But you can t measure psychological states of mind.
21 Psychological Nuclear-armed states have tested nuclear weapons more than two thousand times in deserts and remote parts of the world.
22 Psychological The physics of nuclear weapons is very well understood. But the physics is largely beside the point.
23 Psychological The important question is not what does the explosion do on the ground? The important question is...
24 Psychological... what does the explosion do in the minds of leaders?
25 Psychological When I blow up your city, does that make you surrender? When I threaten to blow up your cities, does that make you back down?
26 Psychological We have good evidence about what nuclear weapons do to buildings and cars and factories and people s bodies.
27 Psychological We don t have good evidence about what they do in the minds of leaders. You can t measure inside a mind.
28 Psychological Almost all claims about nuclear deterrence can t be proved. [Pause.]
29 Very little data The second problem is that not only is the evidence weak, we also have very little of it.
30 Very little data Hiroshima and Nagasaki 1945 Berlin crisis 1948 Korean war Asian crises Taiwan Straits 1958 Berlin 1961 Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 Arab/Israel war 1973 Gulf War We have the two explosions at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and we have various Cold War crises. Really only ten or twelve pieces of data.
31 Very little data Hiroshima and Nagasaki 1945 Berlin crisis 1948 Korean war Asian crises Taiwan Straits 1958 Berlin 1961 Cuban Missile Crisis 1962 Arab/Israel war 1973 Gulf War Nuclear believers have constructed their theory about nuclear deterrence, therefore, from a tiny dataset.
32 Very little data Well, so what? Does a tiny dataset really matter? To understand the dangers of having very little data, think about...
33 Very little data... medieval cosmology. For thousands of years people had only the background pattern of the stars and seven moving points of light: the sun, moon, and five visible planets. Seven pieces of data.
34 Very little data Around the time of Christ, astronomers constructed the Ptolemaic model of the universe.
35 Very little data Earth A perfectly sound model that fit the existing data, it had the earth at the center and the sun, moon, planets and stars revolving around it.
36 Very little data Earth The Ptolemaic model was the reigning orthodoxy for more than a thousand years.
37 Very little data But in 1543 Copernicus used new and more accurate measurements to develop a new model.
38 Very little data Earth He put the sun at the center, and this new model fit the data so well that the former orthodoxy was swept into the dustbin of history.
39 Very little data Earth What cosmology shows us is that when you build a model from a tiny dataset, your model can fit the data,...
40 Very little data Earth... it can be accepted truth for a thousand years, and it can still be fundamentally wrong.
41 Very little data Nuclear believers have also created a model of the universe...
42 Very little data Extended deterrence Hiroshima/Nagasaki Most destructive Nuclear weapons The Long Peace Cold War Crises... the security universe. Their model has nuclear weapons at the center.
43 Very little data Extended deterrence Hiroshima/Nagasaki Most destructive Nuclear weapons The Long Peace Cold War Crises But if Copernicus were here, he might warn them that models built on little evidence can turn out to be radically wrong.
44 Very little data Extended deterrence Hiroshima/Nagasaki Most destructive Nuclear weapons The Long Peace Cold War Crises Security may not revolve around nuclear weapons at all.
45 Evidence The evidence that nuclear believers rely on is weak, there s very little of it, and that could lead to mistakes.
46 Hiroshima But perhaps the most troubling evidentiary problem comes from new doubts about a famous and pivotal event: the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
47 Hiroshima For sixty years no one questioned that nuclear weapons miraculously forced Japan to surrender.
48 Hiroshima But over the last ten years, new facts have come to light, and historians have found a number of troubling discrepancies between the traditional story and the facts.
49 Hiroshima The most important thing they ve realized is that to Japan s leaders Hiroshima didn t have much strategic significance. Why would Japan surrender over something that wasn t strategically important?
50 Hiroshima Killed People often imagine that if something is horrible it is also strategically important. But let s look at the facts. The United States bombed 68 cities in the summer of 1945.
51 Hiroshima Killed If you graph the number of people immediately killed in those 68 attacks...
52 Hiroshima Killed... you might imagine that Hiroshima would be here, off the charts. Because that s the way it s often presented.
53 Hiroshima Hiroshima Killed In fact, Hiroshima is second. Tokyo, a conventional attack, killed more people.
54 Hiroshima Square miles destroyed If you graph the number of square miles destroyed...
55 Hiroshima Hiroshima Square miles destroyed Hiroshima is sixth.
56 Hiroshima Percentage destroyed If you graph the percentage of the city destroyed...
57 Hiroshima Hiroshima Percentage destroyed Hiroshima is seventeenth.
58 Hiroshima Hiroshima Percentage destroyed Hiroshima was a terrible, destructive attack that killed 90,000 people in a day.
59 Hiroshima Hiroshima Percentage destroyed But to Japan s military leaders, Hiroshima was not important. It hardly changed the strategic situation at all.
60 Hiroshima Think about the soldiers dug in on the beaches waiting for the U.S. to invade.
61 Hiroshima After Hiroshima they could still fight. They were ready to fight.
62 There was one fewer city behind them,... Hiroshima
63 Hiroshima... but they d been losing cities all summer long at the rate of one every other day, on average.
64 Hiroshima And we know Japan s military men were largely unmoved by the bombing because they said so.
65 Hiroshima... a serious jolt... Kawabe Toroshiro Deputy Chief of Staff, Army Kawabe Toroshiro, Army Deputy Chief of Staff, wrote in his diary that when he heard it was an atomic bomb it gave him a serious jolt.
66 Hiroshima... a serious jolt we must be tenacious and fight on... Kawabe Toroshiro Deputy Chief of Staff, Army But he continued, we must be tenacious and fight on.
67 Hiroshima No more menacing than the firebombing... Anami Korechika Minister of War Minister of War Anami Korechika said that the atomic bombings were no more menacing than the fire bombings Japan had endured all summer.
68 Hiroshima There was an event, however that occurred at about the same time--that was militarily important. The Soviet entry into the war, at midnight on August 8th, had profound strategic implications.
69 Hiroshima 14 Divisions--November Japan s forces might be able to inflict heavy losses against one great power attacking from one direction.
70 Hiroshima 1.5 million 14 Divisions--November But anyone could see that it couldn t defend against two great powers attacking from two different directions at the same time.
71 Hiroshima The importance of the Soviet entry into the war was immediately apparent to Japan s military.
72 Hiroshima Soviets Hiroshima Army meeting Coup Supreme Council On the morning that the Soviets declared war, senior Army officers held an emergency meeting to discuss what to do.
73 Hiroshima Soviets Hiroshima Army meeting Coup Supreme Council No such meeting was held the morning Hiroshima was bombed.
74 Hiroshima Soviets Hiroshima Army meeting Coup Supreme Council At that meeting they discussed staging a coup.
75 Hiroshima Soviets Hiroshima Army meeting Coup Supreme Council No such extreme measures were discussed the morning Hiroshima was bombed.
76 Hiroshima Soviets Hiroshima Army meeting Coup Supreme Council Within hours of the Soviet entry into the war, Japan s leaders were in an emergency meeting to discuss surrender.
77 Hiroshima Soviets Hiroshima Army meeting Coup Supreme Council No emergency meeting of the Supreme Council was called the morning Hiroshima was bombed. Or the next day. Or the next.
78 Hiroshima The Soviet entry mattered to them; Hiroshima didn t.
79 Hiroshima When the emperor said the Bomb forced Japan to surrender, he did it for domestic political reasons.
80 Hiroshima The Bomb was the perfect face-saving excuse for losing the war.
81 Hiroshima No one could blame the military for losing--if they lost to a miracle weapon. The atomic bombings helped the emperor maneuver the military into surrendering.
82 Hiroshima So back to our question about the psychological effects of nuclear weapons: what effect did the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki have on the minds of Japan s leaders?
83 Hiroshima Remember, nuclear believers claim Hiroshima demonstrates the unique psychological capability of nuclear weapons to shock, coerce, and deter opponents.
84 Hiroshima But this new evidence seems to show that nuclear weapons had hardly any impact at all.
85 Hiroshima In a field with very little data, the most important piece of evidence has completely reversed its meaning.
86 Hiroshima Instead of buttressing the case for nuclear weapons, it now appears to be damning evidence against.
87 Repeatedly wrong So there are problems with the evidence from end to end. But what s really striking is the track record of these people who believe so fervently in nuclear weapons. They have been wrong again and again.
88 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear Early estimates of the value of nuclear weapons were very high. They would be decisive in war. They would prevent attacks by other countries.
89 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear They would bring enormous prestige and make countries into great powers.
90 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear US Secretary of State James Byrnes said they assured success in negotiations.
91 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear And nuclear weapons were so important that history itself would be divided into the atomic and pre-atomic eras. None of these claims turned out to be true.
92 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear Negotiations with the Soviets after World War II showed that nuclear weapons did not provide unlimited diplomatic leverage.
93 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear
94 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear Defeats--in Vietnam for the United States and in Afghanistan for the Soviet Union--showed that nuclear weapons were no guarantee of victory.
95 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear
96 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear The Middle East war in 1973 and the Falkland Islands war in 1982 showed that nuclear weapons didn t prevent other countries from attacking you.!
97 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear
98 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear More and more countries are showing that you don t have to have nuclear weapons to play an important role in world events.
99 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear
100 Value Pre-atomic Atomic Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear And almost no one divides history into the pre-atomic and atomic eras.
101 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear
102 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear The record of error and misjudgment is clear and unequivocal.
103 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear Of course, nuclear believers claim that now they ve got it right. Now they understand the capabilities and proper role of nuclear weapons precisely. But based on their record... why should anyone believe them?
104 Realism There are idealistic reasons to object to nuclear weapons. But not every argument against nuclear weapons is an idealistic argument. There are, in fact, pragmatic military and political objections to nuclear weapons to go hand in hand with the idealistic ones. Quite persuasive objections.
105 Clumsy!! Nuclear weapons are not very good weapons. They are messy. They leave a trail of poison downwind wherever you use them.
106 Clumsy!! Drop a nuclear weapon on your enemy s troops...
107 Clumsy!!... and the radiation can blow back on your own troops.
108 Clumsy This is the famous 1976 study by physicists Frank von Hippel and Sidney Drell in which they tried to design a surgical Soviet attack,...
109 Clumsy... carefully limited to military targets: silos, air bases, sub bases. The result? Twenty million people die.
110 Clumsy Even when you try to use nuclear weapons in a limited way, enormous numbers of civilians die.
111 Clumsy Target If you want to destroy a building in a city...
112 Clumsy Target... you have to destroy three quarters of the city to do it. Nuclear weapons have severe limitations.
113 Clumsy It s not surprising they haven t been used for sixty-nine years. The whole trend in warfare is away from big, blundering weapons.
114 Clumsy The trend is toward more accurate, more intelligent, small weapons.
115 Clumsy This is what the future looks like. This is a four inch drone called the Black Hornet Nano.
116 Clumsy It has a tiny camera, hovers over the battlefield, and peeks behind obstacles.
117 Clumsy The direction of weapons evolution is increasingly clear. And the seventy-year-old technology of nuclear weapons is beginning to look like an evolutionary dead end [click] Nuclear weapons aren t the ultimate weapon, they re dodos.
118 Confusion Nuclear believers believe in these weapons so completely that their thinking has gotten muddled.
119 Genie Take the familiar argument that You can t disinvent nuclear weapons, or its more vivid version, You can t stuff the nuclear genie back in the bottle.
120 Genie This argument has won debates for fifty years. It gets its power from the fact that it is absolutely true. You can t disinvent nuclear weapons. It is also completely irrelevant. No technology is ever disinvented.
121 Genie Technology disappears one of two ways: 1) better technology comes along, or 2) people realize it was stupid technology to begin with and they let it slide into oblivion.
122 Genie Consider the penny-farthing. These nineteenth century bicycles were difficult to get up on and dangerous to fall off of. But nobody warned, You ll never stuff the penny-farthing genie back in the bottle!
123 Genie When better bicycles came along--with two wheels the same size--penny-farthings simply went out of existence. No one had to sit down and disinvent this technology.
124 Genie Or look at this pram from England in I don t know if you can see here, but Mom is wearing a gas mask and junior is inside a hermetically sealed compartment with a little window so he can see the sky. He s got his own gas mask chimney thing to breath through.
125 Genie This technology didn t have to be disinvented. It was dumb technology. Who wants to take their child for a walk during a chemical weapons attack?
126 Genie Finally, there s the Hiller VZ-1. Invented in 1953 by the U.S. Army, it was an amazing engineering achievement. A small helicopter blade allowed a single soldier to hover as much as 15 or 20 feet off the ground. Remarkable.
127 Genie Of course, some people called it the hovering... obvious... exposed... defenseless... death-platform. Which may account for why it never caught on.
128 Genie The question is not whether nuclear weapons can or cannot be disinvented. That s muddled thinking. The question is whether they re smart military technology. On the face of it, this seems unlikely. No one has found a situation in which they wanted to use them for almost seventy years.
129 Genie The genie argument is strong evidence that nuclear believers are confused. But we shouldn t dismiss it. It actually tells us something useful; it s psychologically suggestive. It is, it seems to me, an accurate reflection of what nuclear believers really believe.
130 Genie In their minds--and in minds of the government officials who listen to them--nuclear weapons are the genie. They are magic. Rub the lamp, wave your nuclear weapon, and people will do whatever you say.... [click] But we all know there s no such thing as magic.
131 Genie Government officials who nonchalantly say you can t disinvent nuclear weapons fundamentally misperceive those weapons. Nuclear weapons are not magic genies. They are not the ones with the power. We are in charge, not them.
132 Genie Yet governments continue to insist on the comfortable illusion that the weapons are in control. That we are powerless to do what is sensible and right with them. [Pause]
133 So let s return to this question of value. Conclusion
134 Nuclear weapons Pros Cons We know that nuclear weapons are dangerous.
135 Nuclear weapons Pros Cons Nuclear believers argue that they nevertheless have enormous value, which outweighs the dangers.
136 Nuclear weapons Pros Cons But their valuation is clearly wrong. Factually wrong. And if that is true, if nuclear weapons have very little utility, we are confronted with a powerful, practical question: why would we keep technology that is dangerous but not very useful?
137 Nuclear weapons Pragmatic arguments make a useful supplement to existing arguments against nuclear weapons. The strongest line of attack against nuclear weapons, it seems to me, is to use moral and pragmatic arguments together. Why fight with one hand tied behind your back?
138 Psychological Nuclear deterrence is psychological, which means it is inherently untested, untestable, and unprovable.
139 Very little data Earth Because there is so little data, ideas about nuclear weapons could be fundamentally wrong.
140 Hiroshima The most important evidence now seems to show that at least sometimes nuclear attacks don t shock and coerce.
141 Value Diplomacy Sanctions Alliances Conventional Military Nuclear The record of nuclear believers is one of repeated mistake and exaggeration.
142 Clumsy Nuclear weapons are clumsy at a time when the trend is toward precision.
143 Nuclear weapons Nuclear believers are not realists. They see that nuclear weapons are clumsy, outmoded, not-very-useful weapons.
144 Nuclear weapons But they insist that they have a magical capability--they call it nuclear deterrence --and that makes them useful.
145 Nuclear weapons But I don t believe in magic. If you can t prove nuclear deterrence works every time, it makes no sense to rely on it.
146 It is not foolishness to think about banning nuclear weapons. It is pragmatism. It is prudence.
147 The ones who are foolish are the ones who believe in nuclear weapons without any proof that deterrence can work without failing forever.
148 Is it right to risk the lives of millions of people based on beliefs that have not been satisfactorily proved and that perhaps cannot be proved?
149 That is the question we should be asking ourselves. And asking the governments of the nuclear-armed states, and nuclear dependent states, and all those who believe in nuclear weapons. Asking them again and again until they provide a satisfactory answer. Is it right to risk the lives of millions of people on unproved beliefs?
150 The Weakness of the Nuclear Believers Case The work you are engaged in is serious, important, and urgent. And there is real hope.
Setting the Stage. 1. Why was the U.S. so eager to end the fighting with Japan?
Setting the Stage The war in Europe had concluded (ended) in May. The Pacific war would receive full attention from the United States War Department. As late as May 1945, the U.S. was engaged in heavy
Two Historical Narratives
Two Historical Narratives Name Source: Excerpts from Three Narratives of our Humanity by John W. Dower, 1996. The following is from a book written by a historian about how people remember wars. John W.
Myth, Hiroshima and Fear: How We Overestimated the Usefulness of the Bomb *
CADMUS, Volume I, No. 5, October 2012, 145-149 Myth, Hiroshima and Fear: How We Overestimated the Usefulness of the Bomb * Ward Wilson, Director, Rethinking Nuclear Weapons Project; Senior Fellow, James
Manhattan Project. This was the Manhattan Project. In 1945, they successfully tested the first Atomic Bomb.
The Atomic Bomb Manhattan Project Beginning in 1939, the United States had been working on a top-secret new weapon that would use atomic energy to create an explosive many times more powerful than any
Do Now. Don't forget to turn your homework into the basket! Describe what you know about how the Japanese were defeated in World War II.
Do Now Don't forget to turn your homework into the basket! Describe what you know about how the Japanese were defeated in World War II. As the Allies were closing in on Nazi Germany in late 1944 and early
A B C. 1. Atomic bombs should never have been used because of the terrible long term impacts. and related diseases by the end of 1945 (Doc. C).
1. Atomic bombs should never have been used because of the terrible long term impacts they left behind. According to Curtis LeMay, Around 90,000 died from burns, radiation and related diseases by the end
Writing Constructed Responses
Writing Constructed Responses Step One: READ THE QUESTION!!! Make sure you read the question carefully. Make sure you understand what the question is asking. Example Question: With reference to the source
Education Umbrella,
The Morning After, by Tony Harrison Lesson plan Introduction Look at the photos below: Education Umbrella, 2015 1 Education Umbrella, 2015 2 These photos, taken on the same day in different cities around
Radioactivity. Lecture 28 Radioactivity and Fear
Radioactivity Lecture 28 Radioactivity and Fear The Development of Fear The use of the bomb The realization of its impact The mysterious powers of science The fear of attack The fear of consequence Atoms
Students To Write Newspaper for Main Unit Assignment The War Has Just Ended
Students To Write Newspaper for Main Unit Assignment The War Has Just Ended You and your partner are editors of a newspaper tasked with putting together a special commemorative issue on the Second World
Quick Guide: How to Play The Cold War Era
Quick Guide: How to Play The Cold War Era 1. Launch the game program. 2. Enter the game lobby. Overview 3. Click on one of the two national emblem icons in the top right corner, then click PLAY. 4. Wait
PSC/IR 106: Nuclear Weapons. William Spaniel williamspaniel.com/classes/pscir
PSC/IR 106: Nuclear Weapons William Spaniel williamspaniel.com/classes/pscir-106-2015 Outline The Nuclear Club Mutually Assured Destruction Obsolescence Of Major War Nuclear Pessimism Leveraging Nuclear
Chapter 14 Section 3. The War in the Pacific
Chapter 14 Section 3 The War in the Pacific Philippines American forces fighting under General Douglas MacArthur in the Philippines were attacked by the Japanese FDR realized situation was hopeless so
To End the War Summer 1945
To End the War Summer 1945 On April 12, 1945, President Franklin Roosevelt died while in office. Three months after assuming office, President Harry Trumanfound himselfin control of the most terrible weapon
The man who shouldn t be here hopes to be heard
The man who shouldn t be here hopes to be heard By Gene Beley, CVBT Correspondent He lived through Hiroshima bombing as an infant How lucky for the ones who got killed instantly WITH VIDEO There were many
Ch 26-2 Atomic Anxiety
Ch 26-2 Atomic Anxiety The Main Idea The growing power of, and military reliance on, nuclear weapons helped create significant anxiety in the American public in the 1950s. Content Statements 23. Use of
Bellwork 5/2/16. Using the second half of page 763 in Barzun, answer the question below in at least five sentences:
Bellwork 5/2/16 Using the second half of page 763 in Barzun, answer the question below in at least five sentences: Why did small countries become so important to the Western powers following World War
The Imminent Threat of Nuclear War And What We Can Do To Prevent It
The Imminent Threat of Nuclear War And What We Can Do To Prevent It Presented by Bill Durston, MD August 5, 2018 At the Hiroshima/Nagasaki Remembrance Maui Okinawa Cultural Center Wailuku, Hawaii Note:
Was the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki justified? Background information
Background information On 7 May 1945 Germany and its allies surrendered after six long years of total war. Since then, 8 May has been known as Victory in Europe or V.E. day. Germany s ally Japan, however,
The Manhattan Project (NCSS8)
The Manhattan Project (NCSS8) I. General Information Subject: US History Teacher: Sarah Hendren Unit: World War II Grade: 11 Lesson: The Manhattan Project # of Students: 24 II. Big Question For Today s
60th anniversary of Hiroshima bombing
www.breaking News English.com Ready-to-use ESL / EFL Lessons 60th anniversary of Hiroshima bombing URL: http://www.breakingnewsenglish.com/0508/050806-hiroshima-e.html Today s contents The Article 2 Warm-ups
Issue #1 August Key Power! To ride the wave of the future!
Issue #1 August 2002 Key Power! To ride the wave of the future! 3 Key Power 4 Comics Mountain Rescue! 20 Prism The Magic in the Keys 22 Vision Jumping Over Hurdles 24 Key Power Copyright 2002 by The Family
Campaign Notes for a Grand-Strategic Game By Aaron W. Throne (This article was originally published in Lone Warrior 127)
Campaign Notes for a Grand-Strategic Game By Aaron W. Throne (This article was originally published in Lone Warrior 127) When I moved to Arlington, Virginia last August, I found myself without my computer
On the GED essay, you ll need to write a short essay, about four
Write Smart 373 What Is the GED Essay Like? On the GED essay, you ll need to write a short essay, about four or five paragraphs long. The GED essay gives you a prompt that asks you to talk about your beliefs
Duck & Cover: School Drills During the Cold War By Jessica McBirney 2016
Name: Class: Duck & Cover: School Drills During the Cold War By Jessica McBirney 2016 During the Cold War (a period of political tension that followed World War II), Americans feared that their enemy,
from Nagasaki to the world 2
from Nagasaki to the world 2 CONTENTS PAGE 1. Little Boy and Fat Man 3~8 The two atomic bombs dropped on Japan 2. The end of the earth 9~11 The experience of Mieko Watanabe 3. The Smell of the Dead 12~14
Rules for Investigators by Meric Bloch. Here are some pearls of wisdom that come from my experiences in conducting over 300 workplace investigations:
Rules for Investigators by Meric Bloch Here are some pearls of wisdom that come from my experiences in conducting over 300 workplace investigations: There are only two grades in investigations: A and F.
Scottish CND - Education Pack
Scottish CND - Education Pack Teacher s notes: Nuclear Explosions This unit aims to increase pupils knowledge of why nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction. Content: Video Booklet The nuclear
OPENING IDEA 3: THE KNIGHT AND BISHOP ATTACK
OPENING IDEA 3: THE KNIGHT AND BISHOP ATTACK If you play your knight to f3 and your bishop to c4 at the start of the game you ll often have the chance to go for a quick attack on f7 by moving your knight
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that there were more than 15,000 nuclear warheads on Earth as of 2016.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that there were more than 15,000 nuclear warheads on Earth as of 2016. The longer these weapons continue to exist, the greater the likelihood
The $2 Game. To experience negotiations in a win/lose scenario. Each player should have a pen and paper. Set of Secret Instructions for each round.
The $2 Game Instructions for the game leader This game was created by Dr Mary Rowe for her class in Negotiation and Conflict Management at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). For more information
Nuclear Weapons and Human Beings Hiroshima s Role in Today s Society
Nuclear Weapons and Human Beings Hiroshima s Role in Today s Society Takashi Hiraoka Approximately 27,000 nuclear warheads are presently deployed in the world, threatening the very existence of human beings.
2010 World Summit of Nobel Peace Laureates Hiroshima November 2010 The Legacy of Hiroshima: a world without nuclear weapons
2010 World Summit of Nobel Peace Laureates Hiroshima 12-14 November 2010 The Legacy of Hiroshima: a world without nuclear weapons Address by Mr Tadateru Konoé, President First Session The Legacy of Hiroshima
E U R O P E AN B R I D G E L E A G U E. 6 th EBL Tournament Director Workshop 8 th to 11 th February 2018 Larnaca Cyprus SIMULATIONS AT THE TABLE
E U R O P E AN B R I D G E L E A G U E 6 th EBL Tournament Director Workshop 8 th to 11 th February 2018 Larnaca Cyprus SIMULATIONS AT THE TABLE S 1) [Board 18] Declarer leads Q and LHO contributing to
Statement of John S. Foster, Jr. Before the Senate Armed Services Committee October 7, 1999
Statement of John S. Foster, Jr. Before the Senate Armed Services Committee October 7, 1999 Mr. Chairman, I thank you for the opportunity to appear before the Committee regarding the ratification of the
The world s most commonly believed tall tale
The world s most commonly believed tall tale These are the two most common machine tools: LATHE MILL Together they can make a part like this, a piston. These machines that make parts are themselves made
Handling the Pressure l Session 6
Handling the Pressure l Session 6 Under Pressure Role Plays Put Yourself into the Story Instructions: Photocopy this page and cut out the cards. Read one scenario at a time and choose a child to answer
Torn Curtain: The Secret History of the Cold War. 5 x Radio Documentary series. Broadcast on Hindsight, ABC Radio National, May June 2006
Torn Curtain: The Secret History of the Cold War 5 x 53 00 Radio Documentary series Broadcast on Hindsight, ABC Radio National, May June 2006 Research Background This extensively researched series asks
P U R D U E U N I V E R S I T Y. POL 237: MODERN WEAPONS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Spring 2015
P U R D U E U N I V E R S I T Y POL 237: MODERN WEAPONS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Spring 2015 Keith Shimko BRNG 2236 Office Hours: T 2:00-4:00, W 1:00-4:00 kshimko@purdue.edu Objectives: Whether it was
Reasons for Using Nuclear Weapons (5) Reasons against the use of Nuclear Weapons (5)
Reasons for Using Nuclear Weapons (5) Reasons against the use of Nuclear Weapons (5) Bell Ringer: What was the name of the program to build the Atomic Bomb? Who was the lead scientist? Agenda: Notes/discussion
A SAFE CONTAINER FOR PASSING DOWN A PRAYER TO FUTURE GENERATIONS 1. My Experience with the Hiroshima Peace Museum
A SAFE CONTAINER FOR PASSING DOWN A PRAYER TO FUTURE GENERATIONS 1 A SAFE CONTAINER FOR PASSING DOWN A PRAYER TO FUTURE GENERATIONS: My Experience with the Hiroshima Peace Museum Akiko Doi I. INTRODUCTION:
It Can Wait By Megan Lebowitz. Scene One. (The scene opens with Diana sitting on a chair at the table, texting. There are four chairs at the table.
It Can Wait By Megan Lebowitz Scene One (The scene opens with Diana sitting on a chair at the table, texting. There are four chairs at the table.) (Mrs. Jones enters) Mrs. Jones: Diana, please get off
Made by Bla Map War 2 Manual Version 6 ( ) Page 1. Map War 2 Manual
Made by Bla Map War 2 Manual Version 6 (201209231931) Page 1 Map War 2 Manual Made by Bla Map War 2 Manual Version 6 (201209231931) Page 2 Content Map War 2 Manual... 1 Content... 2 Intro... 3 Initial
SDS PODCAST EPISODE 110 ALPHAGO ZERO
SDS PODCAST EPISODE 110 ALPHAGO ZERO Show Notes: http://www.superdatascience.com/110 1 Kirill: This is episode number 110, AlphaGo Zero. Welcome back ladies and gentlemen to the SuperDataSceince podcast.
Stuck. by Steven Burton
Stuck by Steven Burton 1 EXT. PARK SIDEWALK - DAY A and a MAN walk next to each other in a familiar way. They both speak into cell phones with friendly, intimate conversations. EXT. PARK I feel so close
Fleet Engagement. Mission Objective. Winning. Mission Special Rules. Set Up. Game Length
Fleet Engagement Mission Objective Your forces have found the enemy and they are yours! Man battle stations, clear for action!!! Mission Special Rules None Set Up velocity up to three times their thrust
News English.com Ready-to-use ESL / EFL Lessons
www.breaking News English.com Ready-to-use ESL / EFL Lessons Russia warns against WMD in space URL: http://www.breakingnewsenglish.com/0506/050603-spacewmd-e.html Today s contents The Article 2 Warm-ups
Atomic bombs. The Most Terrible Thing, but Possibly the Most Useful: Evaluating the US Decision to Drop the Atomic Bombs LESSON PLAN: INTRODUCTION
: Atomic bombs The Most Terrible Thing, but Possibly the Most Useful: Evaluating the US Decision to Drop the Atomic Bombs (Library of Congress, LC-DIG-ds-05458.) INTRODUCTION Shortly after the first successful
LESSON 8. Putting It All Together. General Concepts. General Introduction. Group Activities. Sample Deals
LESSON 8 Putting It All Together General Concepts General Introduction Group Activities Sample Deals 198 Lesson 8 Putting it all Together GENERAL CONCEPTS Play of the Hand Combining techniques Promotion,
Worksheets :::1::: Copyright Zach Browman - All Rights Reserved Worldwide
Worksheets :::1::: WARNING: This PDF is for your personal use only. You may NOT Give Away, Share Or Resell This Intellectual Property In Any Way All Rights Reserved Copyright 2012 Zach Browman. All rights
humanitarian impact & risks
humanitarian impact & risks ICAN CAMPAIGNERS MEETING/GENEVA Humanitarian consequences and risks of nuclear weapons The growing risk that nuclear weapons will be used either deliberately or through some
Copyright Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Copyright Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. S E C T I O N 1.1 Introduction to Whole Numbers Copyright Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Objectives A. To identify the order relation between two
Is My Partner an Emotionally Abusive Narcissist? Annie Kaszina Ph.D. Is My Partner Really an Emotionally Abusive Narcissist? Have you heard the terms emotional abuse and Narcissism bandied about and thought
The Atomic Bomb: The Great Decision (American Problem Studies)
The Atomic Bomb: The Great Decision (American Problem Studies) If looking for a ebook The Atomic Bomb: The Great Decision (American problem studies) in pdf format, in that case you come on to faithful
Nuclear weapons: Ending a threat to humanity
International Review of the Red Cross (2015), 97 (899), 887 891. The human cost of nuclear weapons doi:10.1017/s1816383116000060 REPORTS AND DOCUMENTS Nuclear weapons: Ending a threat to humanity Speech
Working On It, Not In It: The Four Secrets to Successful Entrepreneurship
Working On It, Not In It: The Four Secrets to Successful Entrepreneurship 2 From the desk of Michael Gerber Founder, E-Myth Worldwide For over three decades, we have worked with thousands of small business
The Fear Eliminator. Special Report prepared by ThoughtElevators.com
The Fear Eliminator Special Report prepared by ThoughtElevators.com Copyright ThroughtElevators.com under the US Copyright Act of 1976 and all other applicable international, federal, state and local laws,
TDD Making sure everything works. Agile Transformation Summit May, 2015
TDD Making sure everything works Agile Transformation Summit May, 2015 My name is Santiago L. Valdarrama (I don t play soccer. I m not related to the famous Colombian soccer player.) I m an Engineer Manager
The Fall Of Japan (World War II) By Keith Wheeler
The Fall Of Japan (World War II) By Keith Wheeler If you are searched for a ebook The Fall of Japan (World War II) by Keith Wheeler in pdf format, then you have come on to faithful website. We furnish
Episode 12: How to Squash The Video Jitters! Subscribe to the podcast here.
Episode 12: How to Squash The Video Jitters! Subscribe to the podcast here. Hey everybody. Welcome to Episode #12 of my podcast where I am going to help you shake off those annoying, pesky little jitters
PROFILE. Jonathan Sherer 9/10/2015 1
Jonathan Sherer 9/10/2015 1 PROFILE Each model in the game is represented by a profile. The profile is essentially a breakdown of the model s abilities and defines how the model functions in the game.
Southfield Public Library
Southfield Public Library Hiroshima by John Hersey Discussion questions used at SPL -- November 2010 1. Was this a hard book for you to read due to the content? How did it affect you? 2. How would you
Mike Ferry North America s Leading Real Estate Coaching and Training Company TRIGGER CARDS
Mike Ferry www.mikeferry.com North America s Leading Real Estate Coaching and Training Company TRIGGER CARDS Script cards to take you through the many stages of effective Real Estate sales. These are prepared
World War II Unit Day Four U.S. History. The key events, figures, and outcomes of the Atomic Bombing of Japan.
World War II Unit Day Four U.S. History The key events, figures, and outcomes of the Atomic Bombing of Japan. Title of Event: Atomic Bombing of Japan Problem or Goal: How should the U.S. end World War
Eutopian story D: a play in ten acts, written by the Italian students
Eutopian story D: a play in ten acts, written by the Italian students Characters: Narrator Listener Lennon-looking guy Frank Banchieri Francisco Joe Tiago Eutopian guy 1 Eutopian guy 2 Eutopian guy 3 Estonian
Transcript of John a UK Online Gambler being Interviewed.
Transcript of John a UK Online Gambler being Interviewed. Interviewer: Hi John, when you first started to gamble, what type of gambling did you engage in? John: Well I first started playing on fruit machines
Selective obscenity : US checkered record on chemical weapons RT News
Selective obscenity : US checkered record on chemical weapons Published time: August 29, 2013 12:38 Edited time: August 30, 2013 08:58 Get short URL US Marine from Echo Company 2nd Battalion 2nd Marine
200 Questions to get to know someone
200 Questions to get to know someone conversationstartersworld.com/questions-to-get-to-know-someone Casual questions to get to know someone If you didn t have to sleep, what would you do with the extra
Raising Emotionally Intelligent Kids & Teens: Anger & How to be the Boss of Your Brain
Raising Emotionally Intelligent Kids & Teens: Anger & How to be the Boss of Your Brain We re wired to feel. Not just the good feelings but the messy, sweaty, crazy, fierce ones too. Feelings drive our
12 Laws of Success Cheat Sheet
Page 1 of 4 12 Laws of Success Cheat Sheet Success is within your grasp. You have the ability to do great things, and to find the greatness that you ve had in you all along. That s right, the greatness
Pictures of You. The Writer as Reviewer: A Note from the Author. Questions for Discussion A I N L G O N Q U
READERS ROUND TABLE Pictures of You The Writer as Reviewer: A Note from the Author { Questions for Discussion A I N L G O N Q U The Writer as Reviewer a note from the author Don t do it, it ll kill your
Motivation in Becoming and Being a Firefighter
2017 Motivation in Becoming and Being a Firefighter By Lt. Mike Mason (Ret.) Inspired By Thinking Differently Through Military Motivation MOTIVATION IN BECOMING and BEING A FIREFIGHTER Lt. Mike Mason/Fire
Preventing harm from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas
Preventing harm from the use of explosive weapons in populated areas Presentation by Richard Moyes, 1 International Network on Explosive Weapons, at the Oslo Conference on Reclaiming the Protection of
A Thunderbolt + Apache Leader TDA
C3i Magazine, Nr.3 (1994) A Thunderbolt + Apache Leader TDA by Jeff Petraska Thunderbolt+Apache Leader offers much more variety in terms of campaign strategy, operations strategy, and mission tactics than
Essential Step Number 4 Hi this is AJ and welcome to Step Number 4, the fourth essential step for change and leadership. And, of course, the fourth free webinar for you. Alright, so you ve learned Steps
DON T SABOTAGE YOUR DREAM.
DON T SABOTAGE YOUR DREAM. The home you ve dreamed about is right around the corner. You ve done all the right legwork up front: You ve gotten pre-approved for a mortgage. You re working with a great real
PROFILE. Jonathan Sherer 9/30/15 1
Jonathan Sherer 9/30/15 1 PROFILE Each model in the game is represented by a profile. The profile is essentially a breakdown of the model s abilities and defines how the model functions in the game. The
The use of armed drones must comply with laws
The use of armed drones must comply with laws Interview 10 MAY 2013. The use of drones in armed conflicts has increased significantly in recent years, raising humanitarian, legal and other concerns. Peter
Uses of the Atomic Bombs. Brynn Ronk. Junior Division. Historical Paper. Paper Length: 1681 words
Conflict and Compromise: The Conditions and Uses of the Atomic Bombs Brynn Ronk Junior Division Historical Paper Paper Length: 1681 words In the mid-1940s, World War II casualties continued to mount each
6 Sources of Acting Career Information
6 Sources of Acting Career Information 1 The 6 Sources of Acting Career Information Unfortunately at times it can seem like some actors don't want to share with you what they have done to get an agent
Nuclear Weapons. Dr. Steinar Høibråten Chief Scientist. Norwegian Defence Research Establishment. NKS NordThreat Asker, 31 Oct.
Nuclear Weapons Dr. Steinar Høibråten Chief Scientist NKS NordThreat Asker, 31 Oct. 2008 Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Hiroshima 1945 Nuclear weapons What are nuclear weapons? How are they relevant
60th anniversary of Hiroshima bombing
www.breaking News English.com Ready-to-use ESL / EFL Lessons 60th anniversary of Hiroshima bombing URL: http://www.breakingnewsenglish.com/0508/050806-hiroshima.html Today s contents The Article 2 Warm-ups
Delphine s Case Study: If you only do one thing to learn English a day... what should it be? (Including my 10~15 a day Japanese study plan)
Delphine s Case Study: If you only do one thing to learn English a day... what should it be? (Including my 10~15 a day Japanese study plan) Julian: Hi, Delphine! How s it going? Delphine: Nice to meet
Get Your Life! 9 Steps for Living Your Purpose. written by: Nanyamka A. Farrelly. edited by: LaToya N. Byron
Get Your Life! 9 Steps for Living Your Purpose written by: Nanyamka A. Farrelly edited by: LaToya N. Byron Nanyamka A. Farrelly, 2016 Intro Your Potential is Unlimited! Your potential is unlimited! It
What Difference Does It Make?
Introduction To Public Speaking ML111 LESSON 3 of 3 Haddon W. Robinson, Ph.D. Distinguished Professor of Preaching and the Senior Director of the Doctor of Ministry Program at Gordon-Conwell Theological
Objective: To examine the Red Scare of the 1950 s and beyond. Cummings of the Daily Express, 24 August 1953, "Back to Where it all Started"
Objective: To examine the Red Scare of the 1950 s and beyond. Cummings of the Daily Express, 24 August 1953, "Back to Where it all Started" Hunting Communists at Home A dramatic fear of communism and communist
Deceptive Ardor. Christopher M. Pope. Copyright (248) Oakhurst Ridge Road Clarkston, MI 48348
Deceptive Ardor By Christopher M. Pope Copyright 2015 +1-(248)-705-5491 chrispope4678@gmail.com 6940 Oakhurst Ridge Road Clarkston, MI 48348 1 INT. PARKING LOT - DAY 1 TOPHER POPE (19) sits alone, unaccompanied
Places and forms of power
Places and forms of power Mastering robotics is a great form of power. It allows the people who own this technology to be preeminent in the weapon race. Having robots and using them is also a way to demonstrate
InstaStories: How to Use Instagram Stories to Elevate Your Business
InstaStories: How to Use Instagram Stories to Elevate Your Business Doing business is really all about the human-to-human (H2H) relationship. People are seeking real connections with those they may choose
Lesson 2. Overcalls and Advances
Lesson 2 Overcalls and Advances Lesson Two: Overcalls and Advances Preparation On Each Table: At Registration Desk: Class Organization: Teacher Tools: BETTER BRIDGE GUIDE CARD (see Appendix); Bidding Boxes;
Name: Date: Period: The Atom Bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki Japan August By Alan Ream 2015
Name: Date: Period: The Atom Bomb Hiroshima and Nagasaki Japan August 1945 By Alan Ream 2015 The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki marked the first and only time in the history of the world that nuclear
1. What is one thing that you like, but fear telling others because they might judge you? Examples: a favorite band? a movie?
Questions for further reflection: The author designed the following questions to stimulate small group interaction. You can consider these questions on your own, but to gain the most from them, you need
Name: Date: Period: The Atomic Bomb: Trinity, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Cold War and More. By Alan Ream 2017 Version
Name: Date: Period: The Atomic Bomb: Trinity, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Cold War and More By Alan Ream 2017 Version The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki marked the first and only time in the history
CWA Containing Nuclear Power Overview
CWA 3.3.1 Containing Nuclear Power Overview In the years following the August, 1945 dropping of the atomic bombs Americans became increasingly concerned about what this new powerful weapon and technology
Tren ds i n Nuclear Security Assessm ents
2 Tren ds i n Nuclear Security Assessm ents The l ast deca de of the twentieth century was one of enormous change in the security of the United States and the world. The torrent of changes in Eastern Europe,
Chernobyl: A Story From Inside a Nuclear Disaster Area From Interviews that Matter (July 24, 2013)
Name: Class: Chernobyl: A Story From Inside a Nuclear Disaster Area From Interviews that Matter (July 24, 2013) The Chernobyl disaster was a catastrophic nuclear accident that occurred on April 26, 1986
SPACE EMPIRES Scenario Book SCENARIO BOOK. GMT Games, LLC. P.O. Box 1308 Hanford, CA GMT Games, LLC
SPACE EMPIRES Scenario Book 1 SCENARIO BOOK GMT Games, LLC P.O. Box 1308 Hanford, CA 93232 1308 www.gmtgames.com 2 SPACE EMPIRES Scenario Book TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction to Scenarios... 2 2 Player
Evidence. Do you think Sagan provides sufficient support for his conclusion about nuclear weapons and security? Explain your reasons.
Reading Skill ANALYZE INDUCTIVE REASONING When you are led from specific evidence to form a general principle, you are following inductive reasoning. That concluding general principle is called a generalization.
What is Hebocon. What is Hebocon
What is Hebocon What is Hebocon Hebocon is a robot sumo-wrestling competition for those who are not technically gifted. It is a competition where crappy robots that can just barely move gather and somehow
LESSON 7. Interfering with Declarer. General Concepts. General Introduction. Group Activities. Sample Deals
LESSON 7 Interfering with Declarer General Concepts General Introduction Group Activities Sample Deals 214 Defense in the 21st Century General Concepts Defense Making it difficult for declarer to take