Cedar Hill City Center Market Assessment

Transcription

1 Cedar Hill City Center Market Assessment Planning and Programming Analysis Uptown Village Photo Credit: Cedar Hill Economic Development Corporation City of Cedar Hill, Texas North Central Texas Council of Governments May 2013

2 Table of Contents Introduction Our Goals for this Effort.... Initial Observations of City Center. I. Executive Summary City Center Market Position. Transit Impact on Real Estate Potential. City Center Development Approach.... Old Town Programming Concept. Midtown Programming Concept.. Uptown Programming Concept.... Development Roles.. Proposed Market Programming... Phased Programming.. II. Market Analysis Trade Area Analysis... Population Statistics.. Household Statistics.. Population Projections.... Employment Statistics... Retail Leakage Analysis.. III. Programming Analysis Project Area Land Use.. Office / Employment... Retail / Restaurants. Hotel Programming. Multifamily Housing Single Family Housing Programming Recap Photo Credit: Cedar Hill Economic Development Corporation Description of Work and Disclaimer The methodology to create the programming conclusions present in this document take into account current population, housing, and employment demographics, along with projections as developed by the North Central Texas Council of Governments. All demographics were collated using drive time boundaries to create trade areas. Drive time boundaries for the trade areas are 5 minutes, 10 minutes, and 15 minutes, with the primary focus being on 10 minutes. These drive time boundaries are irregular areas based on the road network that don t match neatly along the geographic boundaries the demographics were originally collected for; traffic survey zones, census block groups, and census tracts. To adequately capture all demographics within the irregular drive time boundaries, a specific Catalyst Group geographic information services tool tailored to this study area was utilized to sum the variables by the percentage of each statistical geographic boundary covered by the trade area. This information is for general planning purposes only and should not be used to determine investment decisions as they will need to be confirmed through specific project underwriting. 2

3 Introduction Goals for this Effort: Derive a market-based development program for planning purposes Provide the conceptual basis for a phased implementation strategy Uptown District Dallas, TX Legacy Town Center Plano, TX Mockingbird Station Dallas, TX The recommendations put forth in this analysis have been informed by the successful development processes of other mixed-use and transit-oriented development districts in North Texas. Initial Observations for Cedar Hill s City Center: 7 th Street Corridor Fort Worth, TX West Village Plan Dallas, TX The Triangle Austin, TX The City Center has been witness to an impressive amount of investment that occurred over the prior economic cycle The development pattern this investment generated lacks a cohesive identity that many successful mixed-use destinations present Incomes and ages in the City Center s trade area have been steadily rising, but the key Millennial demographic group is declining (presumably in search of more authentic urban experiences and employment opportunities elsewhere) Addison Circle Addison, TX Galatyn Station* -- Richardson, TX Biltmore Square* Atlanta, GA The City Center is in need of an infill development strategy that better connects/activates key areas and leverages complimentary uses through walkable streetscapes that forge a more identifiable presence Woodlands Town Center Woodlands, TX Paseo Colorado Pasadena, CA 5 th Street Loft District, Austin, TX These conclusions utilize lessons learned in the development and reinvestment of other suburban commercial districts and are described in the sections to follow. The Domain Austin, TX Midtown District Houston, TX Eastside Village Plano, TX Photo and Woodlands Operating Co/RTKL/David Whitcomb/Post Properties/Cencor/Hughes Interests/Karahan Project Credits: Companies/Henry S Miller/City of Richardson/Amicus Partners; planning completed by RTKL 3

4 I. Executive Summary

5 I. Executive Summary This market assessment and programming analysis has been prepared to help guide the City of Cedar Hill in the strategic planning and implementation concepts that allow for a transit-oriented development district in the City Center district. The conclusions of this analysis portray uses consistent with the planning and development goals outlined by the City in its quest to induce new investment to the City Center district through its prior planning studies. As this assessment was prepared for the City and North Central Texas Council of Governments as part of an analysis to determine real estate potential in Cedar Hill s City Center Transit-Oriented district, the future platform location has been used as the center of a trade area analysis that supports the anticipated programming contained in this document. While this assessment was prepared in conjunction with the City and NCTCOG s effort to plan the City Center area for future transit, it should be noted these recommendations are not limited to transit-oriented development or based upon transit being constructed. Rather, it is an assessment of market-based opportunity to generate a transit-ready environment that will benefit in value creation and faster absorption once rail service is delivered. Cedar Hill City Center Market Position Located in the core of Cedar Hill, the City Center has a combination of development identities. The Old Town zone is marked by Cedar Hill s historic original settlement zone and is marked by older Main-Street style development contained within the original gridded street framework. The Midtown zone is comprised of more traditional freeway-based suburban commercial development pattern, wooded open space, and the impressive City Municipal Center. The Uptown zone is primarily comprised of the Uptown Village regional shopping center that combines a main street lifestyle retail format with power center development form. Each three zones have US 67 highway frontage, are well accessed both regionally and locally, and possess open parcels for development. The City Center is positioned within a trade area experiencing explosive growth, with over 27,000 households and nearly 16,000 jobs projected to be added within a 10-minute drive time through This growth will fuel a host of new investment opportunities, with the City desiring a sizable portion of this new development space to occur within a mixed-use setting in the City Center. Cedar Hill City Center Project Area Old Town Midtown Sources: City of Cedar Hill, Catalyst Group Uptown 5

6 Larger societal trends show the upcoming Millennial generation s preference to live and work in authentic urban communities that promote a unique identity and offer a range of daytime and nighttime uses centered on creative and dynamic experiences. With a proper plan and implementation policy, the City Center may capture the area s projected growth and related market potential to allow for a regionally unique mixeduse destination. The range of market-based development programming potential is further described in this document. Transit Impact on Real Estate Potential in the City Center The programming and planning for the City Center is centered on an implementationoriented approach geared to induce transit-ready development due to the positive impact transit will bring the area. This is true for the introduction of a passenger railbased transit system in North Texas has had positive influence on the land value and development potential of properties within walking distance of a transit station. But the study of such transit-oriented development potential in North Texas also shows that such value and investment potential require supportive local policies and demographics, well designed stations, efficient and effective transit systems, and a strong real estate market to take effect. Transit-oriented development is generally thought to have greatest potential in fastgrowing, congested areas that have a strong economy and transit supportive public policies. With the introduction of rail transit, the local community has increased mobility that mitigates surrounding congestion. For residential properties, improved access to transit can ease the commute to work and reduce travel cost. For commercial properties transit access provides greater exposure by increasing the number of citizens who can access businesses and services. But commuter rail can also produce nuisances such as noise, air pollution, increased bus and automobile traffic; with particularly negative impacts on properties located adjacent to the rail itself. Considering these potential strengths and challenges alike, careful thought will need to be applied to the system design and vehicle selection of the ultimate transit service to the City. Transit-Oriented Commuter Rail Development Source: Metrojacksonville Commuter Rail Service Source: DART 6

7 Experience has shown that a commercial property located within walking distance of a commuter rail station will experience the greatest price premium as a result of the introduction of a rail based transit system as proposed in the City Center. As transit guides rather than creates growth and rarely effects significant land use changes by itself, simply building a transit system will not automatically increase property value. Rather, a number of other factors must also exist for the transit system to have a positive effect on property values and development growth including the existence of public policy that encourages transit-oriented development; a community whose demographics indicate that they will be highly inclined to utilize transit; a transit system that is reliable and effective in both service and design; a strong real estate market; and station design that encourages transit use and decreases potential nuisance effects. Furthermore, transit s positive effect on property value increases with system maturity. As the system ages, residents of the area begin to incorporate the use of transit into their every day activities and in turn, the system increases its service area and frequency of service. The residents of the community place a greater value on transit access as they experience increased access due to the expanded service area and increase in service frequency. Station Area Design that Encourages Transit Usage Source: Joe-Urban.com Interactive Mixed-Use Commuter Rail Station Source: Rick Geller 7

8 City Center Development Approach The redevelopment and reinvestment programming concepts described herein will require the repositioning of certain existing assets, culling of key older building stock in strategic locations, the retrofit of sitework in key areas, and the construction of new, desirable housing units and commercial space in locations that are planned to create a sense of place and memorable urban design. These efforts should be done within a sustainable design approach that balances the needs of new construction with the need to arrive at a development that leverages the existing trees and generates new and exciting built form. This focus on targeted infill, synergistic programming and sustainable design will help position the local Cedar Hill marketplace for greater interest that may result in heightened market interest, reduced vacancy rates, and increased regional demand for the City Center uses. A key to the success of such efforts will be to ensure that the scale of the City Center and its subdistricts are structured on a series of identifiable places along Uptown Boulevard. This includes the strengthening of the existing Uptown Village square through more defined entry wayfinding, strengthening of the area around Strayer University to allow for additional employment and services, strengthening of the area between the Municipal Center and cinema as a mixed-use center of community and commerce, strengthening of the Belt Line corridor as a seam between Midtown and Old Town through small and creative business and restaurant infill, and strengthening the Old Town district itself through new infill of loft commercial, residential and public improvements. Beyond these planning concepts, the overall development format for each subdistrict should reinforce and support an urban village streetscape in which new buildings are delivered in a format that enhances the both the existing adjacent building stock and an emerging urban form with active streetscapes. Development Programming Concept Old Town The historic Cedar Hill downtown has a variety of older residential and commercial structures in a neighborhood framework based on small blocks and a traditional village scale. As this environment allows for smaller infill across a range of uses, special care should be taken to encourage new small business, artistic food service and restaurant uses, crafts and arts operations, new single family, home office and senior development. This district provides the potential for new single-family development on the vacant land south of old town, and all development should promote the smaller-scaled more authentic urban experience that many in the younger Millennial generation now seek. Mixed-Use Development Form Photo Credit: Henry S. Miller/RTKL/Catalyst Group 8

9 Development Programming Concept Midtown District The Midtown District has immediate opportunity to forge a new and central mixed-use identity within the City Center due to the availability of open developable property, existing national retail stores serving as potential development anchors, existing office and institutional employment, and the location for a future transit stop. Its large area west of Uptown Boulevard is well positioned for new urban residential uses across a range of densities. The area east of Uptown Boulevard has potential to better connect the existing retail anchors through strategic mixed-use and retail infill, and requires subtle retrofit to the existing street framework to provide better clarity and wayfinding. The vacant property around Strayer University offers potential for new office and hotel infill to better position this area as a center of employment and education. The area around the Municipal Center and cinema should be planned to better leverage these important uses for new restaurant, residential, loft office and gathering space features in a manner that creates a new destination point of interest. Proposed Midtown Urban Form Photo Credit: Trademark Company Development Programming Concept Uptown District The Uptown District is comprised of national credit retail tenants in various development formats that provide a combined powerful retail destination. The Uptown District has opportunity for new complimentary land uses including a limited service hotel with meeting facilities, new restaurants, and urban residential development in a dense configuration. This infill should be positioned to better connect and anchor the existing development form, provide synergies in use and activity, and provide stronger gateways to the Uptown Village shopping center. In addition, there should be strategic landscape and streetscape improvements that provide for a stronger regional identity along Hwy 1382 and entrance to Uptown Village. Proposed Uptown Infill Photo Credit: Freese and Nichols 9

10 Development Roles We believe new investment occurring in the City Center that capitalizes on the market potential summarized in this document will require a comprehensive planning and implementation strategy reflecting a combination of efforts by various entities. These roles are summarized below. 1. City of Cedar Hill The City has the opportunity to help induce initial catalytic developments by positioning access to special funding and incentive mechanisms for the renovation and selective new infill in existing underperforming areas and new development in greenfield areas, as identified by the development master plan. Further, as a land owner in the district, the City can leverage its current land assets to facilitate the implementation of key features of the development plan as necessary. Finally, the City should position its regulatory framework to allow the development plan to be implemented in the most efficient manner. 2. Cedar Hill Economic Development Corporation Faced with the opportunity for new investment formats identified in the development plan, the CHEDC should work as the City s strategic implementation body. This would involve the CHEDC identifying the specific catalytic projects and market these concepts to targeted regional developer/investors in the marketplace that have shown past successes in the implementation of such projects. 3. Private Development Marketplace The private development marketplace can act as the tool for the Cedar Hill community to realize the strategic investment potential identified in the development master plan. Private developers, both for-profit and nonprofit alike, can work in concert with the City in the identification of key sites to deliver new and renovated construction in the formatting described below. In order for a City Center development momentum to move beyond initial catalytic efforts in a manner that may not require public/private partnerships, it is clear that private capital must be deployed to capitalize on the initial catalytic efforts the City can orchestrate. Development of Quality Open Spaces Photo Credit: Cedar Hill EDC Development of Quality Community Form Photo Credit: Cedar Hill EDC 10

11 Summary of Proposed Land Use Programming through 2025 (Note: This absorbs approximately 140+/- acres of the existing 250+/- vacant acres in the City Center) Retail ,000 sf retail/restaurant A retail sales leakage analysis was performed across all retail uses for 5, 10 and 15 minute trade areas and forecasted through We focused on the 10-minute trade area as it reflects what we believe to be a realistic and conservative basis to work from. Identified retail categories showing opportunity include grocery, beer/wine/liquor, jewelry, luggage, leather, florists, and the full spectrum of restaurants. Based on historical sales/sf by category, the total retail area calculated through 2035 is 646,356sf (25,854 sf/year). Our ten year programming recommendation is 250,000 sf, to be applied in mixed-use settings with the exception of a neighborhood retail/grocery development. Although the trade area is larger than the City Center district, we are forecasting that retail will continue to congregate to this area due to its existing regional draw power. Office ,400 sf office space The trade area is expected to attract 15,862 employees for the trade area, of which 5,171 are forecasted to be white collar (based on current employment percentages). This represents 1,137,620 sf when applying a spatial factor of 220 sf/employee. As the trade area is much larger than the City Center area, assuming existing vacancy will need to be filled to a 90% level for the market to be viewed stabilized, and applying a 10% capture rate, we are forecasting demand for 108,400 sf of new office space through 2035 (10,840 sf/year since 2010). Should a strong urban place be created that is amentized by restaurants, ease of parking, and strong open space identity, the City Center may absorb a much larger portion of the overall potential office demand. Hotel key limited service hotel The trade area is expected to attract 15,862 employees by Based on historic absorption, this would accommodate 249 new hotel rooms. As the trade area is larger than the study area, we are forecasting 120 hotel rooms may be built over the next 10 years in one limited service hotel development. Demand for conference meeting facilities should be analyzed and, if viable, the anticipated hotel sizing may double. It is likely such a hotel use would not occur until a later development phase to allow time for demand to build. Urban Residential 1100 apartment, loft and senior living residences When considering the percentage of renter-occupied housing, occupancy rate, and the absorption of existing vacancy to a 90% level for the market to view this area as being stabilized for new construction, the trade area is expected to attract an additional 1938 renter households by 2035 (77/year since 2010). As the trade area is larger than the study area, and prior visioning has held the City Center to become the destination for more dense uses to occur, we are forecasting apartment/loft units may be developed over the next 10 years in 3 to 4 phases (50% of total demand), including 150+/- units of senior living. We recommend these developments occur within urban streetscape-focused building formats. Single-Family Residential single family detached and townhome residences When considering the percentage of owner-occupied housing, owner household occupancy rates, and the absorption of a portion of existing vacancy in owner-occupied housing to stabilize the market, the trade area is expected to attract an additional 5,946 households by 2035 (237/year since 2010). As the trade area is larger than the study area, and the City Center is anticipated to hold a more dense land use pattern than single-family detached, we are recommending 150 single family homes (6% of demand) in both attached and detached formats. Civic, Cultural, Recreation and Entertainment Uses In addition to market-based uses, we anticipate there will be additional development demand for civic uses (library, performing arts, education, etc), cultural uses (museums, religious facilities, etc.), recreational uses (active and passive open spaces including urban sports facilities), and entertainment uses (primarily special events facilities). The amount of such uses will be somewhat determined through stakeholder input and physical planning. 11

12 Phasing of Proposed Land Use Short Term, Medium Term, Long Term (The intervals below reflect periods in which projects would start construction. This timing is general and does not factor the effects of any economic downturns.) Short Term 1-4 years Phase One: 200 unit urban apartment development in Midtown district with 15,000 sf ground level space designed to accommodate retail along Uptown Boulevard Phase Two: Central public plaza and 4 restaurant pads in Midtown district Mixed-use development combining 200 residential and live/work apartments with 15,000 sf ground level (future) commercial space 25 live/work and studio residential lofts in Old Town district 90 unit senior housing development in Old Town district Medium Term 4-8 years Phase One: 200 unit mixed-use urban apartment development in Midtown district with 15,000 sf ground level space designed to accommodate retail and restaurants 15 live/work and small commercial lofts in Old Town district 2 restaurants along Belt Line in Old Town district New private school or other institutional/cultural use on triangle site along Hwy 1382 Phase Two: Restaurant and small retail infill development near existing JC Penny s store Mixed-use development combining 200 residential and live/work apartments with 15,000 sf ground level (future) commercial space and shared parking garage to accommodate flow-over cinema parking 50,000 sf office infill near Strayer University 50 lots single family in Old Town district Park development behind Municipal Complex Community center adjacent to future transit station Long Term 8-12 years Phase One: 200 unit mixed-use urban apartment development in Midtown district with 15,000 sf ground level space designed to accommodate retail and restaurants 15 live/work loft units and 2 restaurants in Old Town district Phase Two: 50 lots single family in Old Town district 25 townhomes in Midtown district Small retail infill in Old Town district 50,000 sf office infill near Strayer University Limited service hotel with conference/meeting space in Uptown Village with new restaurant space at ground level New retail infill to connect existing anchors in Midtown district 12

13 II. Market Analysis

14 Trade Area Analysis City Center s trade area is dependent on programming and market realities. Regional Designation There is a regional trade area (shown in black) that incorporates ex-urban areas within a 30 minute drive. While these areas may be underserved, they may also be absorbed by other regional development areas such as: Cedar Hill City Center Mansfield Forney Waxahachie Sources: ESRI, The Catalyst Group 14

15 Trade Area Targeting We believe ongoing cautious underwriting by the capital markets will require a more conservative trade area designation over the next market cycle. Southern Dallas Hwy 67 Split We propose more focused trade area boundaries -- 5, 10 and 15 minute drive times: Highway minute: immediate retail and convenience demand 10 minute: primary retail, office, housing and hospitality demand I-35E 15 minute: sub-regional retail, restaurant and entertainment demand Midlothian Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, The Catalyst Group 15

16 Population Statistics 5 Min 10 Min 15 Min Population 8,932 11,113 51,458 73, , ,245 Family Population 7,720 9,654 46,969 65, , ,512 Non Family Population 1,075 1,354 4,186 7,534 18,381 29,411 Total Population 8,932 11,113 51,458 73, , ,245 # Population 0 to 5 Years ,017 19% 6,063 Kids 19,015 23,257 # Population 6 to 11 Years 966 1,215 5,571 7,595 20,463 26,570 # Population 12 to17 Years 980 1,182 5,793 8,192 20,643 27,569 # Population 18 to 24 Years ,118 6,093 Millennials 18,047 23,845 # Population 25 to 34 Years 1,442 1,335 7,628 8,123 28,919 31,461 # Population 35 to 44 Years 1,673 1,674 9,743 11,748 33,028 39,583 Gen X # Population 45 to 54 Years 1,109 1,760 7,596 11,756 28,338 39,246 # Population 55 to 64 Years 504 1,220 3,301 8,549 15,047 30, % Boomers # Population 65 to 74 Years ,536 3,360 7,734 14,257 # Population 75 to 84 Years ,360 4,272 5, % Silent Gen # Population 85 Years and Older ,314 2, % 32% Sources: EASI, The Catalyst Group 24% Increase 43% Increase 34% Increase 16

17 b. Population Density Greater population density towards the outskirts of trade area, specifically in Desoto, and southern Dallas Trade area has opportunities for greater population Note: Future desirability of the City Center can be enhanced through: - Identity enhancement - Transportation system - Effective public policy - Natural amenities, etc. Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, EASI, The Catalyst Group 17

18 c. Population in Poverty One of the misconceptions of the greater southern Dallas market area is the presence of poverty This analysis discredits this misconception as the greatest density of poverty is outside the City Center s primary trade area There is a small population south of the City Center project area in poverty, which represents a normal part of a traditional mixed-income community Note: This positive positioning should be further capitalized upon through an effective advertising strategy. Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, EASI, The Catalyst Group 18

19 d. Race and Ethnicity Statistics Min Population 8,932 11,005 11,113 11,547 Black Population 2,872 5,658 5,917 6,955 White Population 5,180 3,800 3,659 3,095 Hispanic Population 1,094 2,150 2,114 1,970 Asian Population Min Population As % of Pop: 51,458 72,686 73,412 76,320 Black Population increasing 20,412 42,796 44,438 60% 51,003 White Population decreasing 26,268 21,162 20,313 27% 16,918 Hispanic Population (slight increase) 5,909 13,186 12,968 17% 12,094 Asian Population 994 1,266 1,325 1, Min Population 196, , , ,252 Black Population 81, , , ,135 White Population 93,214 86,316 83,823 73,849 Hispanic Population 29,271 61,041 60,098 56,325 Asian Population 4,038 7,942 8,392 10,192 Sources: EASI, The Catalyst Group 19

20 e. Race and Ethnicity African Americans reflect the primary population within the primary trade area Caucasian population also present in the primary trade area; primarily west of US 67 Asian American populations is sparse, with some present in the western portion of trade area. Hispanic population primarily east of Hwy 67 and west of the primary trade area Note: Trends note the growth pattern in African Americans will continue. Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, EASI, The Catalyst Group 20

21 Household Statistics 5 Min 10 Min 15 Min # Housing, Occupied Units 3,163 3,996 17,565 25,533 68,820 92,023 # Vacant Units ,300 2,693 5,809 # Housing, Owner Occupied 2,011 2,405 13,371 18,148 45,906 59,040 # Housing, Renter Occupied 1,151 1,591 4,194 7,386 22,914 32,983 # Households w/ Income Less than $15, ,103 1,741 6,765 9,152 Low 13% Income # Households w/ Income $15,000 to $24, ,331 1,576 7,353 8,051 # Households w/ Income $25,000 to $34, ,930 2,180 8,506 9,368 20% Affordable # Households w/ Income $35,000 to $49, ,871 3,123 11,579 12,726 # Households w/ Income $50,000 to $74, ,502 5,107 15,993 17,368 Market # Households w/ Income $75,000 to $99, ,971 4,080 9,569 13,150 # Households w/ Income $100,000 to $124, ,444 2,931 4,526 8,645 Upper # Households w/ Income $125,000 to $149, ,901 1,959 5,479 Market # Households w/ Income $150,000 to $199, ,675 1,466 4,755 # Households w/ Income $200,000 and Over ,220 Luxury 1,104 3,329 Household Inc., Median ($) $ 54,625 $ 62,757 $ 65,545 $ 76,684 $ 59,932 $ 70,655 Sources: EASI, The Catalyst Group 36% 26% 5% 15% Increase 17% Increase 18% Increase 21

22 b. Household Incomes Household incomes and population density are fairly consistent across the primary trade area (with some clustering in the north and south) Lower incomes to the south and west in the primary trade area. Higher incomes to the north and west (which is closer to southern Dallas poverty). Note: Opportunity to build a stronger core (City Center) that attracts new households and incomes through the strength of its experience. Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, EASI, The Catalyst Group 22

23 c. Household Types 5 Min 10 Min 15 Min Vacant HH For Rent ,443 3,217 Vacant HH For Sale ,016 Vacant HH For Seasonal Vacant HH For Other ,193 Single Family Residential HH 2,598 3,485 15,189 22,646 51,277 72,911 Unattached 1 Unit HH 2,423 3,340 even 14,481 22,121 49,006 70,566 (% of total) Attached 1 Unit HH ,271 2,345 85% Low Density MultiFamily Units ,599 4,046 16,530 23,483 2 Unit HH Unit HH increase % 707 Townhomes 2,341 2, Unit HH ,346 6, Unit HH ,964 6, Unit HH ,535 decrease 4% Apartments 2, Unit HH ,638 3,545 Sources: EASI, The Catalyst Group 22% Increase 33% Increase 30% Increase 23

24 d. Housing Dynamics Occupied households are spread out across the trade area, with very little vacancy other than just west of primary trade area There are limited opportunities to rent in the trade area with the exception of small pockets on the east side of US 67 Owner occupied households are prevalent throughout the primary trade area Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, EASI, The Catalyst Group 24

25 e. Household Densities Households in the primary trade area are overwhelmingly single family detached product, with an even coverage throughout Multi-family households are only present along US 67, and Interstate 20 just outside of the primary trade area Notes: Opportunities for higher quality multi-family/loft apartments exist due to lack of supply. Larger demographic patterns would require such product be carefully planned/designed to ensure they are adding to a larger sense of place (rather than being stand-alone developments that do not lend themselves to a positive, coordinated district identity). Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, EASI, The Catalyst Group 25

26 f. Household Years of Residence 5 Min 10 Min 15 Min Housing, Median Year Moved In as of # Housing, Year Moved in 2005 or Later 2,053 46% 11,578 43,343 # Housing, Year Moved in 2000 to % 6,556 20,415 # Housing, Year Moved in 1990 to % 4,785 15,191 # Housing, Year Moved in 1980 to ,479 6,014 # Housing, Year Moved in 1970 to % 680 4,679 # Housing, Year Moved in 1969 or Earlier ,377 Sources: EASI, The Catalyst Group 26

27 g. Owner Household Value 5 Min 10 Min 15 Min # Housing, Owner Households Valued < $20, % 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $20,000-$39, % 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 2.8% 1.2% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $40,000-$59, % 1.2% 6.9% 1.2% 9.8% 2.1% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $60,000-$79, % 6.6% 18.3% 4.1% 20.2% 5.5% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $80,000-$99, % 18.1% 29.2% 11.4% 25.9% 14.4% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $100,000-$124, % 42.0% 18.7% 25.0% 17.3% 24.1% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $125,000-$149, % 10.3% 10.2% 13.2% First 9.9% 13.6% 29% Time # Housing, Owner Households Valued $150,000-$174, % 7.0% 5.7% 16.2% 4.9% 13.8% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $175,000-$199, % 4.4% 3.0% 8.2% Move 2.6% 6.7% 18% Up # Housing, Owner Households Valued $200,000-$249, % 4.5% 2.8% 10.0% 2.5% 8.5% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $250,000-$299, % 1.6% 1.2% 4.2% 1.1% 3.7% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $300,000-$399, % 1.9% 1.8% 3.5% Upper 1.1% 3.3% Production # Housing, Owner Households Valued $400,000-$499, % 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $500,000-$749, % 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% # Housing, Owner Households Valued $750,000-$999, % 0.0% 0.1% Luxury 1% 0.1% Custom 0.1% 0.1% # Housing, Owner Households Valued > $1,000, % 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Housing, Median Value Owner Household $ 90,216 $ 143,887 $ 109,257 $ 159,101 $ 98,959 $ 146,983 Sources: EASI, The Catalyst Group 32% in new const range 56% in new const range 51% in new const range 8% 27

28 h. Household Rents 5 Min 10 Min 15 Min # Households w/ Rent less than $ % 0.4% 4.1% 2.1% 3.9% 3.3% # Households w/ Rent $250-$ % 8.1% 21.3% 7.2% 30.7% 9.0% decreasing # Households w/ Rent $500-$ % 27.1% 53.5% 27.9% Affordable 50.5% 41.7% # Households w/ Rent $750-$ % 44.1% 16.0% 33.4% 10.0% 26.5% increasing # Households w/ Rent $1,000-$1, % 8.9% 2.0% 14.7% 1.5% 9.6% 28% 48% Market # Households w/ Rent $1,250-$1, % 5.3% 0.7% 7.4% 0.3% 4.4% # Households w/ Rent $1,500-$1, % 2.9% 0.4% 3.7% Upper 0.4% 2.1% increasing 15% Market/ Luxury # Households w/ Rent $2, % 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% # Households w/ No Cash Rent 1.9% 2.8% 1.9% 3.1% 2.6% 3.0% Housing, Median Rent $ 588 $ 993 $ 665 $ 1,086 $ 609 $ 976 Sources: EASI, The Catalyst Group 92% in new const range 91% in new const range 88% in new const range 28

29 i. Median Household Value Significant increases in household values throughout the primary trade area Significant increases in median rent in throughout the primary trade area; specifically in the southwest quadrant Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, EASI, The Catalyst Group 29

30 NCTCOG Projections Between 2005 and 2040, NCTCOG projects population and employment to double. Majority of this growth projected in southern portion of trade area Sources: NCTCOG, The Catalyst Group 5 Min 10 Min 15 Min Household Population 8,555 12,491 12,955 50,784 88,488 94, , , ,918 Employment 7,052 13,197 14,081 20,971 42,053 45,966 87, , ,313 Household Population 100% 146% 151% 100% 174% 186% 100% 162% 171% Employment 100% 187% 200% 100% 201% 219% 100% 192% 208% Sources: NCTCOG, ESRI, The Catalyst Group. 30

31 Employment Statistics Employment Industry Percentage Total Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0.5% 142 Construction 8.1% 2,110 Manufacturing 7.2% 1,884 Wholesale trade 2.0% 517 Retail trade 24.0% 6,292 Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 4.3% 1,136 Information 2.2% 586 Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 4.3% 1,118 Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management services 6.3% 1,639 Educational services, and health care and social assistance 17.3% 4,537 Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 14.2% 3,713 Other services (except public administration) 7.1% 1,853 Public administration 2.5% 665 Armed forces 0.0% - Total Employment: 100% 26,191 White Collar Employment 32.6% 8,546 Sources: year ACS Estimate, NCTCOG, The Catalyst Group. 31

32 2010 Population 10, Population 13, Demand Demand 2035 Demand 2010 Supply Avg Average Industry Group (Retail Potential) PerCapita (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) Retail Gap Retail Gap Sales/sf sf Area sf Area Capture Capture Store Size Stores Stores Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $18,479,162 $1,722 $22,883,718 $25,038,660 ($6,559,498) ($2,154,942) Automobile Dealers $15,812,956 $1,473 $19,582,015 $21,250,378 ($5,437,422) ($1,668,363) $350 (15,535) (4,767) sf (7,768) (2,383) sf 20,000 sf 0 0 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $1,316,388 $123 $1,630,152 $1,116,419 $199,969 $513,733 $ ,055 sf 400 1,027 sf 5,000 sf 0 0 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $1,349,819 $126 $1,671,552 $2,671,863 ($1,322,044) ($1,000,311) $189 (6,995) (5,293) sf (3,497) (2,646) sf 9,000 sf 0 0 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $2,769,788 $258 $3,429,974 $7,700,499 ($4,930,711) ($4,270,525) Furniture Stores $1,665,712 $155 $2,062,739 $5,979,304 ($4,313,592) ($3,916,565) $825 (5,229) (4,747) sf (2,614) (2,374) sf 7,200 sf 0 0 Home Furnishings Stores $1,104,076 $103 $1,367,235 $1,721,195 ($617,119) ($353,960) $325 (1,899) (1,089) sf (949) (545) sf 12,000 sf 0 0 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply $3,107,098 $290 $3,847,683 $15,079,167 ($11,972,069) ($11,231,484) Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $2,877,830 $268 $3,563,768 $14,162,092 ($11,284,262) ($10,598,324) $122 (92,494) (86,872) sf (46,247) (43,436) sf 5,000 sf 0 0 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply $229,268 $21 $283,915 $917,075 ($687,807) ($633,160) $122 (5,638) (5,190) sf (2,819) (2,595) sf 5,000 sf 0 0 Food & Beverage Stores $14,802,962 $1,379 $18,331,286 $32,209,443 ($17,406,481) ($13,878,157) Grocery Stores $13,612,930 $1,268 $16,857,607 $31,964,600 ($18,351,670) ($15,106,993) $200 (91,758) (75,535) sf (45,879) (37,767) sf 60,000 sf 0 0 Specialty Food Stores $460,419 $43 $570,161 $244,844 $215,575 $325,317 $200 1,078 1,627 sf sf 35,000 sf 0 0 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $729,612 $68 $903,517 $0 $729,612 $903,517 $443 1,647 2,040 sf 823 1,020 sf 3,500 sf 0 0 Health & Personal Care Stores $2,720,472 $253 $3,368,904 $14,638,998 ($11,918,526) ($11,270,094) $372 (32,039) (30,296) sf (16,020) (15,148) sf 1,500 sf 0 0 Gasoline Stations $12,202,137 $1,137 $15,110,548 $24,155,426 ($11,953,289) ($9,044,878) $1,896 (6,304) (4,771) sf (3,152) (2,385) sf 1,000 sf 0 0 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $3,555,776 $331 $4,403,304 $25,101,211 ($21,545,435) ($20,697,907) Clothing Stores $2,737,624 $255 $3,390,144 $21,871,072 ($19,133,448) ($18,480,928) $383 (49,957) (48,253) sf (24,978) (24,127) sf 3,500 sf 0 0 Shoe Stores $386,055 $36 $478,072 $2,061,437 ($1,675,382) ($1,583,365) $342 (4,899) (4,630) sf (2,449) (2,315) sf 2,500 sf 0 0 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods $432,097 $40 $535,088 $1,168,702 ($736,605) ($633,614) $372 (1,980) (1,703) sf (990) (852) sf 1,000 sf 0 0 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music $1,196,411 $111 $1,481,579 $10,647,587 ($9,451,176) ($9,166,008) Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr $740,378 $69 $916,849 $7,887,683 ($7,147,305) ($6,970,834) $213 (33,555) (32,727) sf (16,778) (16,363) sf 15,000 sf 0 0 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $456,032 $42 $564,728 $2,759,904 ($2,303,872) ($2,195,176) $200 (11,519) (10,976) sf (5,760) (5,488) sf 8,000 sf 0 0 General Merchandise Stores $10,796,568 $1,006 $13,369,958 $76,379,653 ($65,583,085) ($63,009,695) Department Stores Excl, Leased Depts. $3,828,800 $357 $4,741,404 $63,909,196 ($60,080,396) ($59,167,792) $297 (202,291) (199,218) sf (101,145) (99,609) sf 70,000 sf 0 0 Other General Merchandise Stores $6,967,768 $649 $8,628,554 $12,470,457 ($5,502,689) ($3,841,903) $280 (19,652) (13,721) sf (9,826) (6,861) sf 25,000 sf 0 0 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $4,307,379 $401 $5,334,054 $11,248,878 ($6,941,499) ($5,914,824) Florists $163,076 $15 $201,946 $379,305 ($216,229) ($177,359) $194 (1,115) (914) sf (557) (457) sf 1,000 sf 0 0 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores $457,341 $43 $566,349 $3,441,723 ($2,984,382) ($2,875,374) $188 (15,874) (15,295) sf (7,937) (7,647) sf 10,000 sf 0 0 Used Merchandise Stores $129,348 $12 $160,178 $152,252 ($22,904) $7,926 $118 (194) 67 sf (97) 34 sf 9,000 sf 0 0 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $581,877 $54 $720,569 $663,359 ($81,482) $57,210 $188 (433) 304 sf (217) 152 sf 9,000 sf 0 0 Electronics & Appliance Stores $2,975,737 $277 $3,685,012 $6,612,239 ($3,636,502) ($2,927,227) $281 (12,941) (10,417) sf (6,471) (5,209) sf 15,000 sf 0 0 Nonstore Retailers $1,990,706 $185 $2,465,196 $395,061 $1,595,645 $2,070,135 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses $1,235,196 $115 $1,529,608 $0 $1,235,196 $1,529,608 Vending Machine Operators $236,856 $22 $293,311 $395,061 ($158,205) ($101,750) Direct Selling Establishments $518,654 $48 $642,277 $0 $518,654 $642,277 Food Services & Drinking Places $13,247,024 $1,234 $16,404,486 $63,420,512 ($50,173,488) ($47,016,026) Full-Service Restaurants $5,519,205 $514 $6,834,722 $19,366,107 ($13,846,902) ($12,531,385) $575 (24,082) (21,794) sf (12,041) (10,897) sf 5,500 sf 0 0 Limited-Service Eating Places $6,191,395 $577 $7,667,130 $43,254,281 ($37,062,886) ($35,587,151) $450 (82,362) (79,083) sf (41,181) (39,541) sf 3,500 sf 0 0 Special Food Services $1,137,425 $106 $1,408,533 $800,125 $337,300 $608,408 $ ,568 sf sf 2,000 sf 0 0 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $398,999 $37 $494,101 $0 $398,999 $494,101 $ sf sf 2,000 sf 0 0 Store and Square Foot Programming Sources: ESRI, The Catalyst Group Projected Retail Demand -- 5 Min Trade Area 2010 Total Square Footage 2,596 sf 2035 Total Square Footage 4,324 sf 2010 Total New Stores - stores 2035 Total New Stores - stores 5-Minute Trade Summary: 0 sf demand (non-automotive retail) 32

33 Projected Retail Demand Min Trade Area 2010 Population 70, Population 98, Demand Demand 2035 Demand 2010 Supply Avg Average Industry Group (Retail Potential) PerCapita (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) Retail Gap Retail Gap Sales/sf sf Area sf Area Capture Capture Store Size Stores Stores Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $149,865,262 $2,112 $207,224,154 $54,628,274 $95,236,988 $152,595,880 Automobile Dealers $127,928,439 $1,803 $176,891,310 $47,231,054 $80,697,385 $129,660,256 $ , ,458 sf 92, ,183 sf 20,000 sf 4 7 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $11,075,980 $156 $15,315,161 $2,047,412 $9,028,568 $13,267,749 $250 36,114 53,071 sf 14,446 21,228 sf 5,000 sf 2 1 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $10,860,844 $153 $15,017,684 $5,349,809 $5,511,035 $9,667,875 $189 29,159 51,153 sf 11,664 20,461 sf 9,000 sf 1 2 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $22,937,639 $323 $31,716,709 $13,210,656 $9,726,983 $18,506,053 Furniture Stores $13,795,966 $194 $19,076,184 $9,616,190 $4,179,776 $9,459,994 $825 5,066 11,467 sf 2,027 4,587 sf 7,200 sf 0 0 Home Furnishings Stores $9,141,673 $129 $12,640,524 $3,594,467 $5,547,206 $9,046,057 $325 17,068 27,834 sf 6,827 11,134 sf 12,000 sf 0 0 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply $26,630,186 $375 $36,822,528 $43,585,961 ($16,955,775) ($6,763,433) Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $24,685,899 $348 $34,134,091 $41,492,189 ($16,806,290) ($7,358,098) $122 (137,756) (60,312) sf (55,103) (24,125) sf 5,000 sf 0 0 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply $1,944,287 $27 $2,688,436 $2,093,771 ($149,484) $594,665 $122 (1,225) 4,874 sf (490) 1,950 sf 5,000 sf 0 0 Food & Beverage Stores $117,036,835 $1,650 $161,831,093 $48,666,335 $68,370,500 $113,164,758 Grocery Stores $107,711,405 $1,518 $148,936,481 $46,467,404 $61,244,001 $102,469,077 $ , ,345 sf 122, ,938 sf 60,000 sf 2 3 Specialty Food Stores $3,598,096 $51 $4,975,218 $1,210,822 $2,387,274 $3,764,396 $200 11,936 18,822 sf 4,775 7,529 sf 35,000 sf 0 0 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $5,727,335 $81 $7,919,395 $988,108 $4,739,227 $6,931,287 $443 10,698 15,646 sf 4,279 6,258 sf 3,500 sf 1 1 Health & Personal Care Stores $21,809,302 $307 $30,156,516 $28,841,933 ($7,032,631) $1,314,583 $372 (18,905) 3,534 sf (7,562) 1,414 sf 1,500 sf 0 0 Gasoline Stations $96,763,897 $1,364 $133,798,963 $80,972,861 $15,791,036 $52,826,102 $1,896 8,329 $27,862 sf 3,331 11,145 sf 1,000 sf 3 11 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $28,337,285 $399 $39,182,996 $33,488,657 ($5,151,372) $5,694,339 Clothing Stores $21,781,560 $307 $30,118,156 $28,876,391 ($7,094,831) $1,241,765 $383 (18,524) 3,242 sf (7,410) 1,297 sf 3,500 sf 0 0 Shoe Stores $3,017,125 $43 $4,171,889 $3,199,357 ($182,232) $972,532 $342 (533) 2,844 sf (213) 1,137 sf 2,500 sf 0 0 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods $3,538,600 $50 $4,892,951 $1,412,908 $2,125,692 $3,480,043 $372 5,714 9,355 sf 2,286 3,742 sf 1,000 sf 2 3 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music $9,552,653 $135 $13,208,801 $12,427,896 ($2,875,243) $780,905 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr $5,994,778 $84 $8,289,198 $9,190,319 ($3,195,541) ($901,121) $213 (15,003) (4,231) sf (6,001) (1,692) sf 15,000 sf 0 0 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $3,557,875 $50 $4,919,603 $3,237,577 $320,298 $1,682,026 $200 1,601 8,410 sf 641 3,364 sf 8,000 sf 0 0 General Merchandise Stores $86,305,375 $1,216 $119,337,584 $167,695,664 ($81,390,289) ($48,358,080) Department Stores Excl, Leased Depts. $31,370,261 $442 $43,376,802 $82,194,302 ($50,824,041) ($38,817,500) $297 (171,125) (130,699) sf (68,450) (52,279) sf 70,000 sf 0 0 Other General Merchandise Stores $54,935,114 $774 $75,960,782 $85,501,362 ($30,566,248) ($9,540,580) $280 (109,165) (34,073) sf (43,666) (13,629) sf 25,000 sf 0 0 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $34,729,555 $490 $48,021,820 $30,198,286 $4,531,269 $17,823,534 Florists $1,388,065 $20 $1,919,328 $562,567 $825,498 $1,356,761 $194 4,255 6,994 sf 1,702 2,797 sf 1,000 sf 1 2 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores $3,717,434 $52 $5,140,231 $5,341,426 ($1,623,992) ($201,195) $188 (8,638) (1,070) sf (3,455) (428) sf 10,000 sf 0 0 Used Merchandise Stores $1,033,451 $15 $1,428,990 $217,978 $815,473 $1,211,012 $118 6,911 10,263 sf 2,764 4,105 sf 9,000 sf 0 0 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $4,639,543 $65 $6,415,265 $2,498,848 $2,140,695 $3,916,417 $188 11,387 20,832 sf 4,555 8,333 sf 9,000 sf 0 0 Electronics & Appliance Stores $23,951,062 $338 $33,118,005 $21,577,467 $2,373,595 $11,540,538 $281 8,447 41,070 sf 3,379 16,428 sf 15,000 sf 0 1 Nonstore Retailers $15,981,413 $225 $22,098,082 $4,740,058 $11,241,355 $17,358,024 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses $9,976,967 $141 $13,795,516 $2,308,145 $7,668,822 $11,487,371 Vending Machine Operators $1,846,400 $26 $2,553,085 $2,330,920 ($484,520) $222,165 Direct Selling Establishments $4,158,046 $59 $5,749,482 $100,992 $4,057,054 $5,648,490 Food Services & Drinking Places $105,752,036 $1,491 $146,227,190 $95,242,841 $10,509,195 $50,984,349 Full-Service Restaurants $44,029,773 $621 $60,881,570 $31,227,793 $12,801,980 $29,653,777 $575 22,264 51,572 sf 8,906 20,629 sf 5,500 sf 1 3 Limited-Service Eating Places $49,720,699 $701 $68,750,621 $62,595,581 ($12,874,882) $6,155,040 $450 (28,611) 13,678 sf (11,444) 5,471 sf 3,500 sf 0 1 Special Food Services $9,003,048 $127 $12,448,842 $1,337,603 $7,665,445 $11,111,239 $388 19,756 28,637 sf 7,903 11,455 sf 2,000 sf 3 5 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $2,998,515 $42 $4,146,156 $81,863 $2,916,652 $4,064,293 $500 5,833 8,129 sf 2,333 3,251 sf 2,000 sf 1 1 Store and Square Foot Programming Sources: ESRI, The Catalyst Group 2010 Total Square Footage 296,530 sf 2035 Total Square Footage 520,836 sf 2010 Total New Stores 21 stores 2035 Total New Stores 41 stores 10-Minute Trade Area Summary: 330,963 sf demand (non-automotive retail) 33

34 Projected Retail Demand Min Trade Area 2010 Population 255, Population 339, Demand Demand 2035 Demand 2010 Supply Avg Average Industry Group (Retail Potential) PerCapita (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) Retail Gap Retail Gap Sales/sf sf Area sf Area Capture Capture Store Size Stores Stores Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers $514,179,347 $2,011 $681,607,757 $400,857,578 $113,321,769 $280,750,179 Automobile Dealers $439,137,941 $1,717 $582,131,174 $359,406,005 $79,731,936 $222,725,169 $ , ,358 sf 68, ,907 sf 20,000 sf 3 9 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers $37,242,504 $146 $49,369,505 $10,981,429 $26,261,075 $38,388,076 $ , ,552 sf 31,513 46,066 sf 5,000 sf 6 9 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $37,798,902 $148 $50,107,078 $30,470,144 $7,328,758 $19,636,934 $189 38, ,899 sf 11,633 31,170 sf 9,000 sf 1 3 Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $76,920,971 $301 $101,968,177 $42,833,004 $34,087,967 $59,135,173 Furniture Stores $46,628,993 $182 $61,812,446 $16,902,925 $29,726,068 $44,909,521 $825 36,032 54,436 sf 10,809 16,331 sf 7,200 sf 1 2 Home Furnishings Stores $30,291,978 $118 $40,155,730 $25,930,079 $4,361,899 $14,225,651 $325 13,421 43,771 sf 4,026 13,131 sf 12,000 sf 0 1 Bldg Materials, Garden Equip. & Supply $89,765,236 $351 $118,994,824 $117,760,170 ($27,994,934) $1,234,654 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $83,210,744 $325 $110,306,042 $113,455,092 ($30,244,348) ($3,149,050) $122 (247,904) (25,812) sf (74,371) (7,744) sf 5,000 sf 0 0 Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply $6,554,491 $26 $8,688,781 $4,305,078 $2,249,413 $4,383,703 $122 18,438 35,932 sf 5,531 10,780 sf 5,000 sf 1 2 Food & Beverage Stores $411,243,558 $1,608 $545,153,750 $346,464,314 $64,779,244 $198,689,436 Grocery Stores $379,422,965 $1,484 $502,971,653 $337,579,016 $41,843,949 $165,392,637 $ , ,963 sf 62, ,089 sf 60,000 sf 1 4 Specialty Food Stores $12,362,795 $48 $16,388,400 $5,488,526 $6,874,269 $10,899,874 $200 34,371 54,499 sf 10,311 16,350 sf 35,000 sf 0 0 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $19,457,798 $76 $25,793,697 $3,396,773 $16,061,025 $22,396,924 $443 36,255 50,557 sf 10,877 15,167 sf 3,500 sf 3 4 Health & Personal Care Stores $75,932,071 $297 $100,657,268 $75,624,838 $307,233 $25,032,430 $ ,291 sf ,187 sf 1,500 sf 0 0 Gasoline Stations $339,942,288 $1,329 $450,635,176 $331,450,042 $8,492,246 $119,185,134 $1,896 4,479 62,861 sf 1,344 18,858 sf 1,000 sf 1 18 Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores $96,061,666 $376 $127,341,514 $75,141,889 $20,919,777 $52,199,625 Clothing Stores $74,056,461 $290 $98,170,917 $58,797,901 $15,258,560 $39,373,016 $383 39, ,802 sf 11,952 30,840 sf 3,500 sf 3 8 Shoe Stores $10,299,491 $40 $13,653,238 $11,258,096 ($958,605) $2,395,142 $342 (2,803) 7,003 sf (841) 2,101 sf 2,500 sf 0 0 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods $11,705,714 $46 $15,517,359 $5,085,893 $6,619,821 $10,431,466 $372 17,795 28,042 sf 5,339 8,412 sf 1,000 sf 5 8 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music $32,782,570 $128 $43,457,315 $24,082,523 $8,700,047 $19,374,792 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr $20,441,860 $80 $27,098,191 $18,007,804 $2,434,056 $9,090,387 $213 11,427 42,678 sf 3,428 12,803 sf 15,000 sf 0 0 Book, Periodical & Music Stores $12,340,710 $48 $16,359,124 $6,074,719 $6,265,991 $10,284,405 $200 31,330 51,422 sf 9,399 15,427 sf 8,000 sf 1 1 General Merchandise Stores $303,123,781 $1,185 $401,827,731 $521,102,680 ($217,978,899) ($119,274,949) Department Stores Excl, Leased Depts. $113,130,258 $442 $149,968,025 $200,762,375 ($87,632,117) ($50,794,350) $297 (295,058) (171,025) sf (88,517) (51,307) sf 70,000 sf 0 0 Other General Merchandise Stores $189,993,523 $743 $251,859,706 $320,340,306 ($130,346,783) ($68,480,600) $280 (465,524) (244,574) sf (139,657) (73,372) sf 25,000 sf 0 0 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $116,932,697 $457 $155,008,624 $81,247,745 $35,684,952 $73,760,879 Florists $4,542,668 $18 $6,021,863 $2,031,590 $2,511,078 $3,990,273 $194 12,944 20,568 sf 3,883 6,171 sf 1,000 sf 3 6 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores $12,655,404 $49 $16,776,289 $24,033,987 ($11,378,583) ($7,257,698) $188 (60,524) (38,605) sf (18,157) (11,581) sf 10,000 sf 0 0 Used Merchandise Stores $3,602,043 $14 $4,774,950 $803,639 $2,798,404 $3,971,311 $118 23,715 33,655 sf 7,115 10,097 sf 9,000 sf 0 1 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers $15,900,394 $62 $21,077,921 $10,837,600 $5,062,794 $10,240,321 $188 26,930 54,470 sf 8,079 16,341 sf 9,000 sf 0 1 Electronics & Appliance Stores $80,232,188 $314 $106,357,601 $43,540,929 $36,691,259 $62,816,672 $ , ,547 sf 39,172 67,064 sf 15,000 sf 2 4 Nonstore Retailers $56,523,554 $221 $74,928,900 $14,909,957 $41,613,597 $60,018,943 Electronic Shopping & Mail-Order Houses $35,408,968 $138 $46,938,928 $7,256,669 $28,152,299 $39,682,259 Vending Machine Operators $6,283,616 $25 $8,329,703 $3,415,043 $2,868,573 $4,914,660 Direct Selling Establishments $14,830,970 $58 $19,660,269 $4,238,244 $10,592,726 $15,422,025 Food Services & Drinking Places $366,750,510 $1,434 $486,172,760 $295,670,646 $71,079,864 $190,502,114 Full-Service Restaurants $151,129,169 $591 $200,340,240 $92,159,953 $58,969,216 $108,180,287 $ , ,140 sf 30,767 56,442 sf 5,500 sf 5 10 Limited-Service Eating Places $175,082,298 $685 $232,093,049 $196,149,902 ($21,067,604) $35,943,147 $450 (46,817) 79,874 sf (14,045) 23,962 sf 3,500 sf 0 6 Special Food Services $30,159,343 $118 $39,979,906 $6,450,858 $23,708,485 $33,529,048 $388 61,104 86,415 sf 18,331 25,925 sf 2,000 sf 9 12 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $10,379,699 $41 $13,759,563 $909,933 $9,469,766 $12,849,630 $500 18,940 25,699 sf 5,682 7,710 sf 2,000 sf 2 3 Store and Square Foot Programming Sources: ESRI, The Catalyst Group 2010 Total Square Footage 360,547 sf 2035 Total Square Footage 910,331 sf 2010 Total New Stores 47 stores 2035 Total New Stores 112 stores 15-minute Trade Area Summary: 642,188 sf demand (non-automotive retail) 34

35 III. Programming Analysis

36 Trade Area Program: a. Project Area Land Use Commercial Improvements take up over 43% of the land within the project area. An additional 29.2%, or 215 acres, is currently vacant, providing new opportunity for growth. This potential is centered around City Hall as well as an area south of downtown. There are industrial and multi-family uses as highest land user, with the second highest being single family (primarily located south of downtown). LUC Land Use Category Land SF Acreage Percent Parcels NLA (SF) Improvement Value Land Value Total Assessed Value $/SF Value Parcel Value Units A11 Singe Family Residence 4,294, % $ 10,680,630 $ 6,951,650 $ 17,632,280 $ 4.11 $ 72,263 0 A12 SFR - Townhouses 86, % 30 - $ 1,690,510 $ 305,000 $ 1,995,510 $ $ 66,517 0 B11 MFR - Apartments 175, % 6 67,055 $ 1,563,220 $ 404,400 $ 1,967,620 $ $ 327, B12 MFR - Duplexes 28, % 3 - $ 608,520 $ 90,000 $ 698,520 $ $ 232,840 0 C11 SFR - Vacant Lots 475, % 15 - $ - $ 486,930 $ 486,930 $ 1.02 $ 32,462 0 C12 Commercial - Vacant Lots 7,237, % 94 - $ - $ 12,116,970 $ 12,116,970 $ 1.67 $ 128,904 0 C13 Industrial - Vacant Lots 823, % 4 - $ - $ 278,160 $ 278,160 $ 0.34 $ 69,540 0 D20 Land Only 845, % 2 - $ - $ 1,301,360 $ 1,301,360 $ 1.54 $ 650,680 0 D10 Agricultural Land 1,449, % 3 - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 0 E12 Farm Improvements 1,313, % 2 3,002 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - 0 F10 Commercial Improvements 14,038, % 168 2,086,545 $ 173,511,250 $ 71,232,950 $ 244,744,200 $ $ 1,456, F20 Industrial Improvements 488, % 4 96,820 $ 3,483,680 $ 387,450 $ 3,871,130 $ 7.92 $ 967,783 0 J51 Railroad Corridor 912, % 2 - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ ,170, % 577 2,253,422 $ 191,537,810 $ 93,554,870 $ 285,092,680 $ 8.86 $ 4,005, Total Vacant Land* 9,382, % $ - $ 14,183,420 $ 14,183,420 $ 4.57 $ 881,586 0 Sources: DCAD, The Catalyst Group. 36

37 Trade Area Program: b. Office / Employment Within the 10 minute trade area there are 26,191 total employees, 8,538 of which are white collar. NCTCOG projects an additional 15,862 employees for the trade area, of which 5,171 will be white collar (based on current employment percentages). Taking the existing vacancy, the forecasted white collar growth, and applying a 10% discount factor, 108,395 sf of office space will be required. 10 Min Trade Area Office Supply: 2013 Built Office Supply Factors: Total Existing Employees in Trade Area 26,191 employees Existing White Collar Employees in Trade Area (32.6%) 8,538 employees Estimated Occupied Office Space (Using 220 sf / employee) 1,878,435 sf rd Q Transwestern Vacancy Report 12.5% vacancy Total Office Space 2,146,782 sf Absorption Required to Reach 90% Occupancy 53,670 sf Additional White Collar Employees Required to fill 90% Occupancy 244 employees 10 Min Trade Area Office Demand: NCTCOG Forecasted Total Job Growth (to 2035) 15,862 employees NCTCOG Forecasted White Collar Job Growth (to 2035) 5,171 employees Potential Office Space (using 220 sf / employee) 1,137,623 sf Anticipated Office Programming for 10 Min Trade Area: Total Forecasted Demand (to 2035) 1,137,623 sf Total Existing Supply 53,670 sf Office Use Gap 1,083,953 sf Discount Factor % Total Office Programming (to 2035) 108,395 sf Sources: NCTCOG, EASI, The Catalyst Group. 37

38 Trade Area Program: : c. Retail / Restaurants Within the 10 minute area, there are eight non-automotive retail uses that have a positive retail gap. Utilizing a capture rate of 40%, a total of 19 new retail stores will be required in the trade area, with the primary focus being grocery and restaurants. This blend of restaurants, community service and grocery uses may lend itself well to a larger mixed-use town center format. This programming represents two to three projects over time. 10 Min Trade Area Retail Leakage: 2035 Demand 2010 Supply Avg to 2010 Retail SF Required: (Retail Potential) (Retail Sales) Retail Gap Sales/sf Retail sf Grocery Stores $148,936,481 $46,467,404 $102,469,077 $ ,345 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $7,919,395 $988,108 $6,931,287 $443 15,646 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods $4,892,951 $1,412,908 $3,480,043 $372 9,355 Florists $1,919,328 $562,567 $1,356,761 $194 6,994 Full-Service Restaurants $60,881,570 $31,227,793 $29,653,777 $575 51,572 Limited-Service Eating Places $68,750,621 $62,595,581 $6,155,040 $450 13,678 Special Food Services $12,448,842 $1,337,603 $11,111,239 $388 28,637 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $4,146,156 $81,863 $4,064,293 $500 8, Capture 2035 Average Retail Stores Retail sf Rate Capture Store Size Retail Stores Grocery Stores 512,345 40% 204,938 60,000 3 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 15,646 40% 6,258 3,500 1 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods 9,355 40% 3,742 1,000 3 Florists 6,994 40% 2,797 1,000 2 Full-Service Restaurants 51,572 40% 20,629 5,500 3 Limited-Service Eating Places 13,678 40% 5,471 3,500 1 Special Food Services 28,637 40% 11,455 $2,000 5 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 8,129 40% 3,251 2,000 1 Sources: ESRI, The Catalyst Group. 38

39 Trade Area Program: d. Hotels The project area currently has one hotel, The 1890 House, A Quilters Retreat with 4 total rooms. The trade area has seven hotels, with a total of 411 rooms, across the cities of Cedar Hill, (that has four hotels total), Midlothian and Duncanville. A Quilters Retreat is in downtown Cedar Hill, and all the other hotels, in the trade area are on Highway 67. Sources: Texas Comptrollers Office, ESRI, The Catalyst Group. 39