Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament

Transcription

1 Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament

2 NATO ASI Series Advanced Science Institutes Series A Series presenting the results of activities sponsored by the NATO Science Committee, which aims at the dissemination of advanced scientific and technological knowledge, with a view to strengthening links between scientific communities. The Series is published by an international board of publishers in conjunction with the NATO Scientific Affairs Division A Life Sciences B Physics C Mathematical and Physical Sciences D Behavioural and Social Sciences E Applied Sciences F Computer and Systems Sciences G Ecological Sciences H Cell Biology I Global Environmental Change Plenum Publishing Corporation London and New York Dordrecht, Boston and London Springer-Verlag Berlin, Heidelberg, New York, London, Paris and Tokyo PARTNERSHIP SUB-SERIES 1. Disarmament Technologies 2. Environment 3. High Technology 4. Science and Technology Polley 5. Computer Networking Springer-Verlag I The Partnership Sub-Series incorporates activities undertaken in collaboration with NATO's Cooperation Partners, the countries of the CIS and Central and Eastern Europe, in Priority Areas of concern to those countries. NATO-PCO-DATA BASE The electronic index to the NATO ASI Series provides full bibliographical references (with keywords and/or abstracts) to more than contributions from international scientists published in all sections of the NATO ASI Series. Access to the NATO-PCO-DATA BASE is possible in two ways: - via online FILE 128 (NATO-PCO-DATA BASE) hosted by ESRIN, Via Galilee Galilei, Frascati, Italy. - via CD-ROM "NATO-PCO-DATA BASE" with user-friendly retrieval software in English, French and German( WTV GmbH and DATA WARE Technologies Inc. 1989). The CD-ROM can be ordered through any member of the Board of Publishers or through NATO PCO, Overijse, Belgium. Series 1: Disarmament Technologies- Vol. 3

3 Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament edited by Melvin L. Best, Jr. MBEnterprises, Great Falls, VA, U.S.A. John Hughes-Wilson EURONET, Brussels, Belgium and Andrei A. Piontkowsky World Laboratory, Strategic Studies Centre, Moscow, Russia Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V.

4 Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Workshop on Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament Washington, D.C., U.S.A. April6-10, 1995 A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Printed on acid-free paper All Rights Reserved 1995 Springer Science+ Business Media Dordrecht Originally published bykiuwer Academic Publishers in 1995 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1995 No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.

5 CONTENTS Preface List Of Participants vii ix 1. Consensus Report ABOUT THE AUTHORS 2. Contributing Papers AMBASSADOR RONALD F. LEHMAN II, Deterrence, Disarmament, And Post-Cold War Stability: Enhancing Security For Both "Haves" And "Have Nots" QUALITATIVE - GLOBAL 51 DR. ROBERT W. CHANDLER, On Deterrence, Balance Of Power, And Geopolitics 53 DR. FRITZ W. ERMARTH, Proliferation Stability And Instability: Conditioning Factors 69 COLONEL(ret) ROY GILES, Verifying The Future: Towards An International Conventional Arms Control And Conversion Regime For The 21st Century 77 MAJOR GENERAL ROBERT E. LINHARD, Crisis Stability In A Multi-polar World QUALITATIVE- EUROPEAN 95 SIR RODRIC BRAITHWAITE, Russia And The West: A Partnership? 97 DR. DMITRY S. CHERESHKIN, Possibilities For Coope~ation Of Russia And The USA In Designing, Correction And Realization Of National Security Doctrines 107 DR VASILIY I. KRIVOKHIZHA, Deterrence And Stability QUALITATIVE - ASIAN 131 GENERAL(ret) SIR ANTHONY FARRAR- HOCKLEY, Geo-Political Stability And The Balance Of Power In East Asia 133

6 vi GENERAL(ret) KRISHNASWAMI SUNDARJI, Strategic Stability In The Early 2000s: An Indian View Of A South Asian Model 141 LIEU1ENANT COLONEL XIA LIPING, Non-Nuclear Proliferation And Strategic Stability In The Asia-Pacific Region QUANTITATIVE: GEOPOLITICAL STABILITY & BALANCE OF POWER 177 DR. EMERSON M.S. NIOU and PE1ER C. ORDESHOOK, Balance Of Power Verses Collective Security: A Game-Theoretic Analysis 179 DR ANDREI PIONTKOWSKY & DR. ARKADY SKOROKHODOV, Russia's Nuclear Strategy: 90's And After QUANTITATIVE: DE1ERRENCE, CRISIS STABILITY & FIRST STRIKE STABILITY 201 DR JEROME BRACKEN, Multipolar Nuclear Stability: Incentives To Strike And Incentives To Preempt 203 LIEU1ENANT GENERAL GLENN A. KENT (ret), Controlling Instabilities Caused By Rogue Governments 221 DR MICHEL RUDNIANSKI and ALETH D' ASSIGNIES, From MAD To MAD 229 DR. ANDREI PIONTKOWSKY & DR. ARKADY SKOROKHODOV, FSSI As A Universal Measure Of Stability: From MAD-Stability Toward MAP-Stability QUANT A TITIVE: ARMS RACE 269 MR. FREDERIC S. NYLAND, Analyzing Three-Way Arms Races 271 DR. CHRISTIAN SCHMIDT, New Patterns In The Arms Race: Some Guidelines 297 DR. ANTON V. SURIKOV, Approaches To Mathematical Modeling Of The Process Of World-Wide Strategic Nuclear Conflict Used In The Former USSR QUANTITATIVE: PROLIFERATION 315 DR. ILAN AMIT, Stability, Reassurance And Non-Proliferation 317

7 Preface This Report contains a Consensus Report and the papers submitted to the April 6-10, 1995 NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Strategic Stability In The Post-Cold War World And The Future Of Nuclear Disarmament, held in Washington D.C., United States Of America at The Airlie Conference Center. The workshop was sponsored by the NATO Division of Scientific and Environmental Affairs as part of its ongoing outreach programme to widen and deepen scientific contacts between NATO member countries and the Cooperation Partner countries of the former Warsaw Treaty Organization. The participants recognize that the collapse of the former Soviet Union has left a conceptual vacuum in the definition of a new world order. Never before have the components of world order all changed so rapidly, so deeply, or so globally. As Henry Kissinger points out, the emergence of the new world order will have answered three fundamental questions:" What are the basic units of the international order? What are their means of interacting? and What are the goals on behalf of which they interact? " The main question is whether the establishment and maintenance of an international system will turn out to be a conscious design, or the outgrowth of a test of strength. The concept of a planning framework that could shape or govern these interactions is emerging and may now be at hand. Capturing this emerging framework is the thrust of this NATO-sponsored Advanced Research Workshop. OBJECTIVES OF THE ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP ( ARW) : The objective of this workshop is to reach a consensus on defining a model (calculus) for Strategic Stability in a changing multipolar world in the presence of weapons of mass destruction -- the model (calculus) being the core of a conscious design to shape or govern the interactions of nation-states in a new world order. The basis for constructing this model will be regional models that reflect the role weapons of mass destruction play in each nation's early twenty-first century security strategy. These models, among other things, will address the effect that future modernization, reductions in weapons (to levels below START II), and proliferation will have on the many dimensions of Strategic Stability. The participants have begun to rigorously document this multipolar model, develop each dimension of Strategic Stability, and identify issues for further investigation. FRAMEWORKFORTHEARW: A fully described model is a necessary condition for a conscious design to shape actions toward Strategic Stability. The following taxonomy of the dimensions of Strategic Stability was accepted by the participants as the first step toward such a model. Stability in Geo-politics and Balance Of Power Arms Race Stability Deterrence Stability; Crisis Stability; First Strike Stability Stability in the presence of clandestine Proliferation The focus of their investigations are to extend each dimension of stability into a dynamic vii

8 viii multipolar world. These investigations will focus on the role and effect of proliferation of nuclear weapons. Regional models reflecting each nation's security strategy will be developed and will form the basis for constructing a global model. Rigorous operational definitions and metrics will be necessary to complete the fully described model. This unprecedented gathering of top academic, scientific and military experts from the USA, Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, India, and Israel would not have been possible were it not for the tireless and selfless devotion of the participants and the sponsorship of the NATO Scientific Affairs Division. As in any gathering of bright and outspoken individuals it is not possible to reach consensus on all points by all participants. However, after four grueling days the participants reached general agreement that is captured in the "Consensus Report". Then each participant made a individual contribution that further fleshes out the dimensions of Strategic Stability. This amazing gathering is now the foundational work that can provide joint concepts for all leaders of the nuclear powers to shape their decisions for the next decades. And for the first time they can base their decisions on agreed scientific facts, not just political judgements. The turbulence of the emerging new world will no doubt bring unprecedented challenges and I am sure that the delegates are unanimous in their view that new solutions to tomorrow's problems can only be achieved through unprecedented cooperation and dialogue. Mel Best Workshop Director

9 List of Participants NATO-ARW "Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament" DIRECTOR - Melvin Best-- MBEnterprises -- USA Co-Director- Col.(ret)John Hughes-Wilson - EURONET -- UK Co-Director-- Dr. Andrei Piontkowsky --World Laboratory, Moscow-- Russia NATO Participants USA Maj. Gen. Robert Linhard- US Air Force Dr. Ronald Lehman -- Lawerence Livermore National Laboratories Dr. Fritz Ermarth --Former Chairman National Intelligence Council Lt. Gen. Glenn Kent (ret) - RAND Corporation Dr. Robert Chandler-- Strategic Planning International Dr. Emerson Niou -- Duke University- Political Science Department Dr. Jerry Bracken-- Yale (Adjunct Professor) Dr. Fred Nyland-- Nyland Enterprises United Kingdom Col.(ret) Roy Giles -- Defence Research Agency Sir Rodric Braithwaite -- Morgan Grenfell & Company Gen.(ret) Sir Anthony Farrar-Hockley --National Westminster Bank France Dr. Michel Rudnianski --University ofreims, and Paris V Dr. Christian Schmidt --University of Paris NON-NATO Participants Israel Dr. //an Amit -- Former Director Center for Military Analysis India Gen.(ret) Krishnaswami Sundarji --Former Army Chief Of Staff China Professor Zhongyue Song -- Society for Strategy and Management Research Lt. Col. Liping Xia --National Defense University, PLA Russia Academician Eugene Ve/ikhov -- Vice President,Russian Academy of Sciences Dr. Dmitry Chereshkin -- VP-Russian Academy of Natural Sciences Dr. Vasiliy Krivokhizha -- Dep Dir-Russia's Institute Strategic Studies Dr. Arkady Skorokhodov -- Institute for Systems Analysis Dr. Anton Surikov -- Institute of USA and Canada Studies Studies ix