FUTURE OF THE NUCLEAR SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN 2015

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1 SUB Hamburg B/98310 FUTURE OF THE NUCLEAR SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN 2015 Proceedings of a Russian U.S. Workshop Ashot A. Sarkisov and Rose Gottemoeller, Editors Joint Committees on the Future of the Nuclear Security Environment in 2015 Committee on International Security and Arms Control Policy and Global Affairs In cooperation with the Russian Academy of Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C.

2 CONTENTS OVERVIEW OF U.S.-RUSSIAN PARTNERSHIP AND PERCEPTIONS 1 OF THE THREAT ENVIRONMENT LEADERSHIP THROUGH PARTNERSHIP: A VISION FOR THE NUCLEAR SECURITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Ambassador Linton Brooks FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF RUSSIAN-U.S. COOPERATION IN THE 13 NUCLEAR ARENA: A REVIEW OF OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS Lev D. Ryabev ACCUMULATED EXPERIENCE THROUGH LONG-TERM 27 COOPERATION: APPLYING LESSONS LEARNED FROM U.S.-RUSSIAN MPC&A PROGRAMS THE EXPERIENCE OF RUSSIA AND THE UNITED STATES IN COOPERATION 29 ON PROTECTION, CONTROL, AND ACCOUNTING OF NUCLEAR MATERIALS Sergei V. Antipov, Nikolai N. Ponomarev-Stepnoi, Vladimir K. Sukhoruchkin MATERIAL PROTECTION, CONTROL, AND ACCOUNTING: LESSONS 37 LEARNED APPLIED TO UNITED STATES AND RUSSIAN NUCLEAR SECURITY COOPERATION IN 2015 Dori Ellis, Bryon Gardner, M. Teresa Olascoaga THE KOLA TECHNICAL AND TRAINING CENTER OF THE RUSSIAN NAVY 49 Sergei V. Antipov, Nikolai N. Ponomarev-Stepnoi, Vladimir K. Sukhoruchkin PARTNERSHIP IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT OF THE 21 ST CENTURY: 57 A PERSPECTIVE FROM THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY ASSURANCES OF SUPPLY VS. PROLIFERATION: A NEW FRAMEWORK 59 FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY Tariq Rauf

3 FULL PARTNERSHIP: SHARING STRATEGIC, MANAGEMENT AND 69 FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITIES THE SALIENT NEED TO DEVELOP NEW APPROACHES TO ADDRESS 71 NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROLIFERATION ISSUES Academician Ashot A. Sarkisov MINIMIZING CIVIL HIGHLY ENRICHED URANIUM STOCKS BY 2015: 89 A FORWARD-LOOKING ASSESSMENT OF U.S.-RUSSIAN COOPERATION Philipp Bleek and Laura Holgate COST-SHARING ARRANGEMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND 105 TECHNOLOGY COOPERATION: THE CRDF EXPERIENCE Eric Novotny A NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE: EXPANDING NUCLEAR ENERGY AND 111 ASSOCIATED SECURITY CHALLENGES INTERNATIONAL URANIUM ENRICHMENT CENTER IN ANGARSK: 113 A WAY TO ENSURE THE SECURITY OF NUCLEAR FUEL SUPPLY AND NON-PROLIFERATION Sergei V. Ruchkin NUCLEAR POWER OF FAST REACTORS: A NEW START 125 Viktor V. Orlov LEGAL ASPECTS OF NEGOTIATION, ENTRY INTO FORCE, AND 135 IMPLEMENTATION OF INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF PEACEFUL USE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY Alexander A. Pikaev PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIAN-U.S. COOPERATION IN THE AREA OF NUCLEAR 145 NON-PROLIFERATION IN THE CONTEXT OF PROBLEMS ARISING FROM A NUCLEAR POWER RENAISSANCE Academician Evgeny N. Avrorin CREATIVE SOLUTIONS TO TOMORROW'S CHALLENGES: 151 OPPORTUNITIES FOR BI-LATERAL AND MULTI-LATERAL COOPERATION NUCLEAR TERRORISM THREATS AND RESPONSES 153 Cristina Hansell

4 PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR PARTNERSHIP RELATIONSHIPS: 163 FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES, PROMISING DIRECTIONS AND METHODS OF RUSSIAN - AMERICAN COLLABORATION IN THE FIELD OF NON- PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS Vyacheslav M. Apanasenko U.S. AND RUSSIAN COLLABORATION IN THE AREA OF NUCLEAR 179 FORENSICS Michael Kristo MAXIMIZING U.S.-RUSSIAN NUCLEAR SECURITY COOPERATION IN 2015: 203 LEGAL OBSTACLES AND OPPORTUNITIES Orde F. Kittrie NUCLEAR SECURITY AND NON-PROLIFERATION FOR THE COMING 215 DECADES: COOPERATION IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL 217 Viktor S. Koltunov, Vitali L. Kotyuzhansky, Yuri F. Zabaluyev APPROACHES TO REDUCING THE RISK OF NUCLEAR MULTI-POLARITY 229 Pavel S. Zolotarev NUCLEAR SECURITY IN 2015: THE CASE OF NORTH KOREA 237 Joel Wit BUILDING PARTNERSHIP ON THE STRENGTH OF EXPERIENCE: 245 TRENDS, PRIORITIES, AND TOOLS FOR CONTINUED RUSSIAN-U.S. COOPERATION BUILDING PARTNERSHIP ON THE STRENGTH OF EXPERIENCE: TRENDS, 247 PRIORITIES, AND TOOLS FOR CONTINUED RUSSIAN-U.S. COOPERATION Rose Gottemoeller and Academician Ashot A. Sarkisov LIST OF ACRONYMS 255 APPENDIXES 259 A FUTURE OF THE NUCLEAR SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN WORKSHOP AGENDA B FUTURE OF THE NUCLEAR SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS C JOINT NATIONAL ACADEMIES'-RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF 267 SCIENCES' COMMITTEE MEMBER BIOGRAPHIES

5 D JOINT STATEMENTS BY PRESIDENTS VLADIMIR V. PUTIN 273 AND GEORGE W. BUSH AND INTERNATIONAL STATEMENTS ON NUCLEAR SECURITY E AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE UNITED 301 STATES OF AMERICA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF PEACEFUL USES OF NUCLEAR ENERGY

ON INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS SAFETY. Vladimir A. Afanasiev RFNC-VNIIEF. Appendix I

ON INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN NUCLEAR WEAPONS SAFETY Vladimir A. Afanasiev RFNC-VNIIEF Appendix I Key Russian Leaders Involved in Nuclear Weapons Safety Cooperation Viktor Nikitovych Mikhailov Made a