Disarmament and Arms Control An overview of issues and an assessment of the future

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1 Disarmament and Arms Control An overview of issues and an assessment of the future EU-ISS research staff discussion Jean Pascal Zanders 18 December 2008

2 Defining the concepts Disarmament: Reduction of levels of specified weapon categories to zero Removal of the weapons category from military doctrine Essentially requires international cooperation, although unilateral disarmament is possible Arms control (inc. arms reductions): Management of levels of weapons within specified quantitative or qualitative boundaries Weapon category retains (residual) value in military doctrine Essentially requires international cooperation, although unilateral policies are possible

3 Why arms control; why disarmament? Legitimacy of use of a weapon in war CBW: basically delegitimized in 1925 (Geneva Protocol) Nuclear weapons: 5 possessor states Advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice (1996) Conventional weapons Inhumane weapons Humanitarian arguments Macro versus micro-level of appraisal Emergence of non-proliferation approach Different perceptions of proliferation before and after World War 2 Relevance in areas where there is no total prohibition on weapons Impact of perception of technology Value neutral => use of technology needs to be controlled Having impact on society => technology itself is viewed as problematic

4 Nature of arms control and disarmament agreements Global (multilateral) Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT, 1963), Outer Space Treaty (1967), Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT, 1968), Seabed Treaty (1971), Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC, 1972), Moon and Other Celestial Bodies Agreement (1979), Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC, 1993), *Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT, 1996), Mine Ban Convention (1997), *Cluster Munitions Convention (2008) Regional (multilateral) Antarctic Treaty (1959), Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE Treaty, 1990), Nuclear Weapon Free Zones: Tlatelolco (1967), Rarotonga (1985), Bangkok (1995), *Pelindaba (1996), *Semipalatinsk (2006) Bilateral Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty, 1972), Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty I (SALT I, 1972), *Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty II (SALT II, 1979), Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty, 1987), Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty I (START I, 1991), Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II (START II, 1993), Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT, 2002)

5 Future options Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space (PPWT) Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC)

6 Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) Mandate for negotiation in December 1993; stalled since then Aim: global, verifiable ban on production of fissile material for nuclear weapons and other explosive devices Problems: Reduction / elimination of FM in existing weapon stockpiles Non-inclusion of tritium, which enhances nuclear explosion (half life of 12 years => would immediately affect existing weapons) Non-inclusion of other radioactive materials

7 Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space (PPWT) Aim to prevent future arms race in space Options are being explored within UN system Treaty proposal by Russia Strong opposition from the USA to any regulation Other states are also expanding space capabilities for military purposes

8 Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC) Exciting new area Recognition of limitations non-proliferation policies Debate is being launched from the USA Bi-partisan support In Barack Obama s platform as President-Elect ( => foreign policy) Need for fundamental shift in debate Belief in feasibility will create enabling context Search for alternative security policies is critical Research into verification concepts & options required May be phased in time Timeframe: up to 25 years? Initial reductions in US and Russian stockpiles to 1000 nuclear weapons (not carriers) Phase to bring in other nuclear weapon states (NWS) and nuclear-armed states (NAS) Support in EU, notably from UK Will still produce vigorous debate in EU Role of French stockpile New EU members in East Europe Impact on missile defence debate

9 Upcoming review conferences Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (2010) Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (2011) Chemical Weapons Convention (2013)

10 Old weapons, new threats New security actors Criminals, terrorists with potential interest in BCNR materials Existing treaties require re-interpretation by states parties to make them relevant to those new challenges Difficult area for the UN Does not involve the governance of inter-state behaviour Emphasis on national implementation of existing treaties controlling particular weapon categories through treaty review conferences by states parties with UN support UN Security Council Resolutions relating to terrorism E.g., UNSC 1540 (2004) Advantage: applies certain treaty obligations to all states However, danger of UNSC interfering in domestic legislative processes Enforcement of resolutions may be difficult Development of UN Secretary-General mechanisms to deal with allegations of use of certain proscribed weapons