THE IMPORTANCE OF MULTILATERAL VERIFICATION FOR ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT. Hassan Elbahtimy Researcher VERTIC

Transcription

1 THE IMPORTANCE OF MULTILATERAL VERIFICATION FOR ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT Hassan Elbahtimy Researcher VERTIC

2 What this presentation is covering? What is Verification? some common themes Why is it needed? Verification, trust and sovereignty Verification, compliance and enforcement How does verification achieve its objectives? Main Verification methods and techniques Bilateral and Multilateral Contexts of Verification

3 Central theme of presentation There is a common logic and structure to arms control verification regardless of the uniqueness of each verification regime.

4 Verification: common theme The need to resort to reliable/independent conclusion or judgement i.e. to verify is prevalent in different contexts Checks and balances of commerce and financial audits Emphasis on evidence is crucial to the development of modern science. The practice of academic peer-review is an example. Court evidence (the prosecution has a case backed by evidence)

5 What is Verification?: variety of definitions Oxford Dictionary: Verification is the establishment of truth or correctness [of something], by examination or demonstration. UNIDIR/VERTIC definition: is the process of gathering and analyzing information to make a judgment about parties compliance or non-compliance with an agreement. GGE 1995 report: verification can be generically defined as a process in which data are collected, collated and analysed in order to make an informed judgment as to whether a party is complying with its.

6 Some common themes: Central element: Information gathering To provide a systemic and reliable answer to questions about compliance with an agreement Carries two main possibilities: voluntary demonstration (by the party to be verified) through an arrangement where there is an active pursuit of information: (by others parties) active examination/ even challenge Multi-disciplinary: verification lies at the intersection of science and policy Indispensible contribution from technical professionals But it is also a matter of policy i.e. it is always liable to being instrumentalized Arms Control agreements and dual use: the problem of collateral information

7 Verification/ Trust /Sovereignty Engendering trust is key to understanding the dynamics at work in verification Trust between states (self-help-no hierarchy) Machiavelli A prudent ruler ought not to keep faith when by so doing it would be against his interests and when the reasons which made him bind himself no longer exist Verification and sovereignty Similar to commercial cartels? competitive Shared interest in regulating competition to the benefit of all Extra requirements on trust: WMDs create the potential for any state to be destroyed by an adversary i.e. high cost of strategic surprise.

8 Verification/Intelligence In both cases states are acquiring information about other states. Difference: In verification this information gathering has a clear and specific legal mandate in an arms control agreement. Verification is authorized by the state in question. In espionage lacks authorization and cooperative spirit. Diminishes rather than engender trust Espionage goes beyond those activities sanctioned by recognizable principles of Intl law (among others respect of sovereignty)

9 Verification/Compliance/Enforcement Verification is part of overarching regimes feeds into compliance determining mechanism Different/separate but dependant Compliance determination as practices is different than verification and less automatic or mechanistic Among other options it will determine the following: Full compliance Deliberate violation An action is inconsistent with spirit of agreement Unintended violations Action not banned by treaty but makes verification more difficult Ambiguous activities further examination is required The ultimate arbiter is are states themselves What after detection? Enforcement mechanisms Common route is referral for security council for action

10 How does verification achieve its objectives Detection of non-compliance if/when it happens Noncompliance can be an issue of national security Emphasis of effectiveness: (accurate and timely detection) Deterrence of non-compliance before it happens but can t prevent (synergism) Ability is also a function of compliance and enforcement. If a party does not care about getting caught, verification will not deter them. Confidence building through the demonstration of abiding by Intl obligation Effective verification encourages states to rely on arms control to diminish threats to their national security.

11 Examples of technologies used in verification Optical imagery (Aerial over-flights Satellites) Infra-red detection and imagery Radar Seismology Electronic reconnaissance (signal intelligence) The most common use in arms control is through telemetry monitoring. Radio data transmissions from missiles that are being flight-tested. On-site inspections

12 Verification Methods & Techniques Remote monitoring versus on-site inspections Non-intrusive versus Intrusive National technical means versus inspections Image verification versus signal verification Combination of various techniques and synergism is mostly the case. It is rarely the case that one single piece of evidence can be the basis for a charge of violation

13 Overview of CTBT verification Elements of the verification regime of the CTBTO International Monitoring system Seismic stations Hydroacoustic stations infrasound stations Radionuclide stations International Data Centre Global communications infrastructure Consultations and clarification On-site inspection CBMs

14 The process of verification In real life it is more messy this process is not as neat but this is a useful approximation of the process Applying verification methods/methods of gathering data and information (raw data) Information processing Information analysis Identification (is it a violation or not) Evaluation (is it a significant violation?) Response

15 Bilateral and Multilateral context of Verification From bilateral to multilateral arms control Treaties concluded in the bilateral, East-West forum of negotiations such as the SALT accords (1972,1979), the INF Treaty (1988), START I and II (1991,1993) and the Test Ban treaties (from mid 70s), PTBT (1963)demonstrate the evolution of verification regimes in one complex rivalry. Multilateral regimes, such as those established for Antarctica (1959), Outer Space (1967) and the Sea Bed (1971), NPT, the CWC & CTBT offer examples of a global definition and the practice of international verification. Verification is inherently cooperative (cooperation is needed to resolve ambiguities and not to interfere with verification)

16 Third party verification: Regional: ABACC, EURATOM, OSCE International: IAEA, OPCW,CTBTO Advantages: Increased credibility and stronger case for impartiality Providing all parties with substantive capabilities Spreading the cost Efficient way of handling reciprocity Democratization of verification : Particularly useful for states who don t have the capacity to carry out verification themselves. Such organizations are crucially dependent on political, financial and technical support of treaty parties. Work under specific legal mandate. In most cases three different organs: Technical/professional secretariat + Executive body to provide oversight of the verification regime + Conference of state parties

17 Thank you for your attention