OPEN SOURCE TOOLS FOR CONFIDENCE IN COMPLIANCE
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1 Developments in Science and Technology OPEN SOURCE TOOLS FOR CONFIDENCE IN COMPLIANCE Acknowledgements to: Side event to the Meeting of Experts of the BWC Geneva, 10 August 2015 Gunnar Jeremias, Mirko Himmel
2 Content Considerations on confidence and compliance relevant information Challenges for OS based monitoring, Tasks for OS monitoring, Developing a standardised query, Examples for the gathering of OS information, Conclusion.
3 Transparency/Knowledge as Main Sources for Confidence in Compliance Status Quo: Performance in compliance behaviour as known unknown in the BWC regime. Information gathering indispensable for the strengthening of any regime. No confidence without knowledge. With the absence of an official mechanism to monitor BW relevant activities (state level), Relevant scientific and technological developments (global level) the question is, how transparency building can be facilitated for the BWC regime.
4 Actors Technical Means Range of transparency States NTMs No/limited transparency International Organisations ITMs Defined by States Parties NGOs PTMs The general public Few states have the capacity to systematically collect relevant information, PTMs with enhanced technical potential due to revolutions in IT and reconnaissance technology, Public transparency is conceptually very different from State based transparency.
5 PTMs as last resort? Use of PTMs as effective way to produce confidence by transparency in biological arms control. Need for the development of a publicly applicable method to identify qualified questions on the compliance behaviour of states on base of open source information. Disclaimer for public OS based monitoring: Does not replace an official mechanism, Focus: activities of states rather then small scale activities.
6 Searching the needle in the haystack? Not a complicated exercise! Preventive biological arms control is the search in 193 haystacks with individual levels of complexity. Any haystack may contain a needle, but also parts of needles consisting of different materials. Parts of the needle might be perfectly suitable to legitimate activities. We can only investigate them from a distance or from hearsay.
7 Challenges Biological arms control is preventive: Includes the identification and investigating civil facilities and activities with significant dual-use characteristics, Biotechnology still rapidly developing geographically, technically, and economically, Wide-spread dual-use characteristic of agents, methods, technology, knowledge, etc., Availability of equipment on the market. Big Data needs aggregation and visualisation, New technologies needed for off-site measurements of environmental markers.
8 Tasks for public OS monitoring Indicators for off-site monitoring, Signatures of relevant facilities and activities, Accessibility of relevant information.
9 General context information such as S&T developments, availability of dual-use equipment, etc. Imports Vaccines production Exports Yeasts, Encymes, Bt pesticides, tbc? Patents Dualuse trade Products Research & Production Facilities Commercial Biotech Country specific information Epidemiology Unusual outbreaks Exhaust gas Soil Environmental signatures Water Large Scale Labs etc. Process technol ogy Univers ities Codes of Conduct Biotech. Research facilities Networks of scientists Public R&D Education Biotech. Study programmes Bio Prepare dness State activities Bio Defense Legisla tion Past BW Programm es Membership in treaties and regimes Active transparency measures Peer Review Activities BWC Meeting Participation, working papers etc. Standardised query - any point can be the stating point. CBMs
10 Off-site measurements: Big Data: Sources of Compliance Relevant Information (BWC) Environmental samples Official documents Epidemiological Information (real-time, global) Patents Biotechnical facilities and capacities (companie s websites ) Yellow Pages) Historical offensive BW-programmes/ongoing biodefence programmes Scientific Publications (PubMed etc.) Social media Satellite imagery Reports in the media (e.g. the trench forum) Relevant trade data
11 The example of Syria
12 The example of Syria
13 Syria s ricin programme Source: FAO Tameco pharmaceuticals, Al-Maliha Source: google earth
14 Identifying further bio-(chemical) facilities in Syria Identified by (list not conclusive) List of customers of a producer of specific AC. Optical indicators: Specifications of biotech facilities on satellite images, Number of satellite images of a certain site, Linkage with on the ground photographs. Wikimapia search.
15 Search with wikimapia
16 Syria s trade in biological growth media
17
18 Identifying networks of bioscientists
19 Identifying networks of bioscientists
20 For example: Open Source Tools for web analysis Triggerevent, Newspaper article (online text) Image data without context/from secondary sources Unstructured bulk data Geo data, coordinates, facilities Gephi TinEye Wikimapia Geofeedia Clearly stuctured informations on social netzworks Tagging satellite images Link original sources with similar reports, unmask fakes Internet footprint: Publications etc. / check sources Names/Usernames/ div. lists etc. Webmii Real time reporting of ongoing events by analysing all major social media
21 Conclusion on Syria Developing biotechnology industry: Growing vaccines production Starting to export vaccines (before the war), Research on few (listed) pathogens (most notably Brucellosis), At moment no indications for the production of BW based on pathogens, All activities suitable for a country with many livestock in an area of endemic brucellosis and other animal disease, No obvious links found to the Ricin programme, Notified past BW Program (Ricin) from 2003 on, Tameco as supposable production site, But: Striking trade data remains unexplained and many facilities of which we could not find out anything.
22 Conclusion Building public transparency cannot replace an official mechanism to strengthen confidence in compliance - but relevant information will be recognised in the regime and will cause effects, Requirement of a standardised methodology to evaluate divergent informational inputs, Results will come as qualified questions, not as judgements, Independent monitors must act in a responsible manner! Useable to monitot article X implementation, Learning from other fields is prerequisite.
23 Thank you!
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