Source-Receptor Modeling Studies
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1 Source-Receptor Modeling Studies Influence of Anthropogenic Emission Changes on Surface Ozone and PM 2.5 in East Asia and North America: the Effects of HTAP Source-Receptor Relationships in Regional/Urban Areas TFMM TF HTAP Joint Workshop on Regional-Global and Air Quality-Climate Linkage Paris, France June 17-19, 2009 Joshua Fu Yun-Fat Lam and Yang Gao, University of Tennessee, USA Rokjin Park, Seoul National University, Korea Daniel Jacob, Harvard University, USA 36 km domain 12 km domain
2 Outline Downscaling effect to SR scenarios GEOS-Chem to CMAQ Regional impacts on both CMAQ 36km/12km domains Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai, Taipei & PRD Seattle, Atlanta, Chicago, NYC, LAX & Denver (36km only) Examination of distance transport effect on receptors, East Asia and North America, using CMAQ 36km/12km domains PM2.5 results Summary
3 Current Defined Experiments SR Global Model (GEOS-Chem) Reference simulation in 2001 and simulations reducing anthropogenic emissions by 20% in EU, NA, EA, and SA. SR3 - Anthropogenic NOx emissions reduced 20% SR6 - Combined reduction of anthropogenic emissions (NOx/ NMVOC/ CO/ SO2/ NH3/ POM/ EC) by 20% SR Regional Model (CMAQ) Using GEOS-Chem outputs as initial and boundary conditions e.g. = Boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem (20% Anthropogenic NOx emissions from Europe) Average monthly (not hourly) GEOS-Chem outputs are used
4 GEOS-Chem Configurations Domain: Global Horizontal Grid Spacing: 2 x 2.5 Horizontal Coordinate: Lat x Lon Vertical Grid Spacing: 30 layers Simulation Period: 2001 Meteorological Input: GEOS3
5 Regional Modeling Configurations Features : Models-3/CMAQ One-Atmosphere (multi-pollutants) Modeling 2001 January, April, July and October scenarios 12 & 36-km CMAQ Domain in Lambert Conformal projection East Asia and North America Model Setup : NASA s TRACE-P and updated emission inventories and local emissions and GEIA/MODIS biogenic emission inventory Emissions Processing: Spatial allocation (GIS/Gridding) and Temporal, speciation needed for the M3/CMAQ simulations 14 vertical layers Meteorology : MM5 V3.7, AQM: CMAQ V.4.6 Chemical mechanism: CB-IV Initial and Boundary Conditions: GEOS-Chem
6 Model Domains & Scenario Matrix Regional Modeling Receptor Domains: East Asia (36km & 12km) Continental USA (36km only) EU SA EA Regional Modeling Scenario Matrix: Receptor: East Asia Receptor: ConUSA SR3EA SR6EA
7 Effect of Using Monthly Average O 3 value for CMAQ boundary condition (BC) From Continental USA domain 1) US standard Profile Boundary (fixed value) 2) GEOS-Chem Boundary (average hourly output) This fixed value have very similar average as GEOS-Chem average Monthly Average O 3 - JULY Profile GEOS Profile Not much effect on Average O3 when using average monthly data. Time series data is needed Time series of hourly O 3 - JULY GEOS Near Boulder, CO (47N, W) Near Huntsville, AL (34.28N, 85.96W) GEOS Profile Even hourly time-series show very little different in concentration if we use monthly average data as BC
8 Effect of Using Monthly Average O 3 value for CMAQ boundary condition (BC) Cont Monthly Maximum O 3 - JULY GEOS Profile Perturbation Domain Maximum Ozone (ppbv) GEOS Profile SEATTLE LAX DENVER CHICAGO ATLANTA NEW YORK
9 Downscaling Effects to SR Scenarios East Asia Receptor Monthly average O 3 Concentration - JULY GEOS-Chem SR1 CMAQ 36 km SR1 Monthly Average O 3 Perturbation JULY Average O3 Perturbation (ppb) 0.30 GEOS-Chem 36km resol. CMAQ
10 Downscaling Effects to SR Scenarios East Asia Receptor Cont Monthly average O 3 Concentration JULY SR1 Case GEOS-Chem CMAQ 36 km CMAQ 12 km Average O 3 Perturbation (ppb) Monthly Maximum and Average O 3 Perturbation JULY Average Maximum Maximun GEOS-Chem 12km resol. CMAQ 36km resol. CMAQ Maximum O 3 Perturbation (ppb) km resol.cmaq 12km resol.cmaq Similar pattern is found between GEOS-Chem to CMAQ, GEOS-Chem shows about 5 to 10 ppbv different. This mostly is caused by different in emission inventory and meteorology
11 Regional Impacts on CMAQ 36km/12km domains Regional Modeling Receptor Domains: Continental USA (36km only) East Asia (36km & 12km), SA & NA;, SA & NA 36 km domain 36 km domain 12 km domain Wulumuqi Beijing Seoul Chengdu Shanghai Tokyo PRD Taipei USA (36km) East Asia (36km & 12km)
12 JAN - O3 Perturbation (ppb) JUL - O3 Perturbation (ppb) Regional Impacts EAST ASIA 12 km Resolution- Surface Maximum Perturbation OVERALL BEIJING SHANGHAI SEOUL TAIPEI PRD JAN JUL R6EU 12 km Resolution R6EU Could up to Beijing could reach about 1 ppb different APR - O3 Perturbation (ppb) OCT - O3 Perturbation (ppb) ppb 1.4 APR OCT R6EU R6EU
13 Surface Maximum Perturbation 36 km Resolution 12 km Resolution OCT - O3 Perturbation (ppb) JUL - O3 Perturbation (ppb) APR - O3 Perturbation (ppb) JAN - O3 Perturbation (ppb) BEIJING SHANGHAI SEOUL TAIPEI PRD OCT - O3 Perturbation (ppb) JUL - O3 Perturbation (ppb) APR - O3 Perturbation (ppb) JAN - O3 Perturbation (ppb) BEIJING SHANGHAI SEOUL TAIPEI PRD
14 Regional Impacts EAST ASIA Cont Vertical Distribution Max 12 km Resolution JULY SR1-110º E 113º E 113º E 113º E 122º E Upper layer has stronger O 3 transport than at the surface 122º E
15 Distance Effect on Receptor, East Asia 12 km Resolution JULY (JULY) Ozone Perturbation (ppb) The latitude that separating the effect is at about 32 degree for EU LAT LON D-Vertical distribution
16 O3 Perturbation (ppb) O3 Perturbation (ppb) Regional Impacts O 3 North America Vs. East Asia EA to NA Enhancement (SR1 - SR6EA) North America - AVERAGE US SEATTLE DENVER CHICAGO NEWYORK LAX ATLANTA JAN APR JUL EA influencing NA is OCT stronger than NA North America - MAX influence 1.8 EA US SEATTLE DENVER CHICAGO 1.6 NEWYORK LAX ATLANTA JAN APR JUL OCT O3 Perturbation (ppb) O3 Perturbation (ppb) NA to EA Enhancement (SR1 - ) East Asia - AVERAGE 0.98 EAST ASIA BEIJING SEOUL SHANGHAI TAIPEI PRD JAN APR JUL OCT East Asia - MAX EAST ASIA BEIJING SEOUL SHANGHAI TAIPEI PRD JAN APR JUL OCT
17 PM 2.5 Analysis 36 km Resolution SR1 - SR6EA 12 km Resolution SR1 - PM2.5 Perturbation (ug/m3) North America AVERAGE US SEATTLE DENVER CHICAGO NEWYORK LAX ATLANTA PM2.5 Perturbation (ug/m3) East Asia - AVERAGE EAST ASIA BEIJING SHANGHAI SEOUL TAIPEI PRD JAN APR JUL OCT JAN APR JUL OCT For both NA and EA receptors, the PM 2.5 perturbations are small
18 Summary The average IC/BC compared with hourly IC/BC have very little effect on average ozone concentration. However, it have impact on the maximum ozone concentration. The value could reach +10 ppb different between hourly and monthly average data. Very little downscaling effect is observed on the average perturbation among the SR scenarios. Downscaling improves the maximum ozone perturbation. The value could reach as much as 1.6 ppb in difference, which is 3 5 times higher than the average value For East Asia, Spring time shows the strongest perturbation response, compared with other seasons. In Summer, Monsoon effect have reduced the SR effect in South East Asia. Effect of East Asia on North America is stronger than the effect of North America on East Asia. This may be caused by magnitude of the regional/urban air pollution. Higher ozone concentrations in surface levels could be caused by initial conditions and boundary conditions in vertical downscaling at high altitude (the top layers of regional models with variations in time series) from global models. The ozone and PM2.5 in use of hourly data from global models could be higher than monthly average data as much as. Fu et al. (CMAS, 2008)
19 Thank you for your attention Questions?
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