National support to improve air quality?

Transcription

1 For our Environment TFIAM, Tallinn, June 2018 National support to improve air quality? Andreas Eisold Section II 4.1 / General Aspects of Air Quality Control with support from Marcel Langner, Johanna Appelhans, Kevin Hausmann, Stefan Feigenspan, Stephan Nordmann

2 Outline National Emissions and Reduction Commitments Measures Impact on Air Quality First Estimation Study on Health Effects of NO2-concentrations June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 2

3 Emissions 1990 bis 2016 (Submission 2018) and commitments of the NEC-Directive (EU) 2016/2284 for Germany Emissionen in kt/a ab SO2 NOx NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NMVOC NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NH3 PM2.5 ab June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 3

4 Emissions (Submission 2018) and commitments of the NEC-Directive (EU) 2016/2284 for Germany Emissions in kt/a ab ab 2030 SO2 NOx NOx ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NMVOC NMVOC ohne NFR 3 (Landwirtschaft) NH3 PM June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 4

5 National measures to reduce emissions Large Combustion Plants LCP BREF/BAT conclusions 13.BImSchV Medium Combustion Plants MCP-Directive 44.BImSchV Small Stationary Combustion Ecodesign Directive 1.BImSchV Road Traffic Fleet renewal through Euro-Standards + Software- Updates and Retrofitting of Cars and Busses + Modal split + E- mobility Agriculture Tackle the whole nitrogen cycle? Decarbonization of the energy sector? ( Exit from the coal ) June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 5

6 Impact on air quality CTM Background concentrations June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 6

7 Impact on air quality CTM Background concentrations Pollutant mean concentration 2005 µg/m³ mean concentration 2015 µg/m³ absolute difference µg/m³ relative difference NO Ozon NH SO PM PM % June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 7

8 Impact on air quality CTM Background concentrations Pollutant mean concentration 2005 µg/m³ mean concentration 2015 µg/m³ NO2 emission reduction 340 kt 21% further reduction required till kt absolute difference µg/m³ relative difference NO Ozon NH SO PM PM % June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 8

9 NO2 annual means by station categories µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 9

10 NO2 annual means by station categories µg/ m³ 30 remember: = -2,76 µg/m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 10

11 Preliminary evaluation NO2 exceedances 2017 more than 60 stations exceeded the limit value remember: = -2,76 µg/m³ June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 11

12 Preliminary evaluation NO2 exceedances 2017 Diesel Euro 1-4 Diesel Euro 6 TEMO Softwareupdates + Diesel Euro 1-4 Diesel Euro 6 a,b,c und Benzin Euro June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 12

13 28-29 June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 13

14 Impact on air quality CTM Background concentrations Pollutant mean concentration 2005 µg/m³ mean concentration 2015 µg/m³ primarypm2.5 emission reduction 32 kt 24% further reduction required till kt absolute difference µg/m³ But there will also be substantial reductions of PM-precursors. relative difference NO Ozon NH SO PM PM % June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 14

15 PM10 annual means by station categories µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 15

16 PM10 annual means by station categories remember: = PM10-2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5-2,57 µg/m³ 30 µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 16

17 PM2.5 JRC Urban Atlas for Düsseldorf, Germany June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 17

18 Experiment remember: = PM10-2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5-2,57 µg/m³ 30 µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 18

19 Experiment remember: = PM10-2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5-2,57 µg/m³ 30 µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 19

20 TSAP Report #12 Kiesewetter and Amann, IIASA Experiment remember: = PM10-2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5-2,57 µg/m³ 30 µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 20

21 TSAP Report #12 Kiesewetter and Amann, IIASA Experiment 2 50 remember: = PM10-2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5-2,57 µg/m³ 40 remember: = PM10-2,66 µg/m³; PM2.5-2,57 µg/m³ 30 µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund städtisch verkehrsnah industrienah June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 21

22 UBA-Study by TNO and others (not yet published) June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 22

23 UBA-Study by TNO and others (not yet published) June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 23

24 Impact on air quality CTM Background concentrations Pollutant mean concentration 2005 µg/m³ mean concentration 2015 µg/m³ absolute difference µg/m³ relative difference NO Ozon NH SO PM PM % June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 24

25 Number of days exceeding O3-target value of 120µg/m³ (3 year average of max. 8h mean) by station categories µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 25

26 Number of days exceeding O3-target value of 120µg/m³ (3 year average of max. 8h mean) by station categories remember: = O3 +1,81 µg/m³ 40 µg/ m³ ländlicher Hintergrund städtischer Hintergrund June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 26

27 Conclusions Impact of national measures (NAPCP) on local air quality Impact on PM2.5 concentrations >> NO2 Impact on O3 is depending on Compliance with the NEC-Directive in all member states (as well as global emission reductions) June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 27

28 Health Impact of NO2-concentrations NO2 modelled background Population Density 2011 concentration - annual mean June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 28

29 Health Impact of NO2-concentrations High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 29

30 Health Impact of NO2-concentrations High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 30

31 Health Impact of NO2-concentrations High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO2 Critique: Combined Impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 31

32 Health Impact of NO2-concentrations High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO2 Critique: Combined Impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 NO2 may only mask UFP-effects higher risks through PM (factor 10), but limit value higher than WHO-guidelines, so it s not in focus long term exposition can not be concluded from place of residence Pro: Conservative Estimation quantifying the minimum effect of NO2, showing at least that there is an effect June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 32

33 Health Impact of NO2-concentrations High evidence of epidemiological studies only for cardiovascular mortality Only around 2% of cardiovascular mortality is attributable to NO2 Critique: Combined Impact of PM2.5, NO2 and O3 NO2 may only mask UFP-effects higher risks through PM (factor 10), but limit value higher than WHO-guidelines, so it s not in focus long term exposition can not be concluded from place of residence Pro: Conservative Estimation quantifying the minimum effect of NO2, showing at least that there is an effect Years of Life Lost (YLL) June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 33

34 Thank you very much for your attention! Andreas Eisold Phone: / Hier steht der Veranstaltungstitel in 12 Punkt 34

35 Health Impact of NO2-concentrations June 2018 / TFIAM workshop on local measures, Tallinn 35