8.4.9 Advice May 2013 ECOREGION STOCK

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1 8.4.9 Advice May 2013 ECOREGION STOCK Baltic Sea Herring in Subdivision 30 (Bothnian Sea) Advice for 2014 ICES advises on the basis of the MSY approach that catches in 2014 should be no more than tonnes. All catches are assumed to be landed. Stock status Figure Herring in Subdivision 30, Bothnian Sea. Summary of stock assessment (weights in thousand tonnes). Recruitment in 2012 is estimated. Recruitment, F, and SSB have confidence intervals (95%) in the plot. Top right: SSB and F for the time-series used in the assessment. From the end of the 1990s the SSB remained stable until 2003 but has since then more than doubled to a record-high level. There is, however, great uncertainty about the estimates. Since the beginning of the time-series, the most likely estimates of fishing mortality have been below F MSY, exceeding F MSY only in Prior to 1988, recruitment was stable and low and has continued to remain stable over the past 20 years, but at a higher average value than previously. However, the predation impact on herring stock is presently minor.

2 Management plans No specific management objectives are known to ICES. Biology The stock structure in Subdivisions 30 and 31 is uncertain. The growing grey seal population in the Bothnian Sea has resulted in increased predation on herring. Environmental influence on the stock The body weight of herring in the Bothnian Sea has declined over the last 20 years. The decrease in weight-at-age may be the result of a combination of density-dependent effects and a decrease in zooplankton prey. The fisheries On average, 95% of the total catch is taken by the trawl fishery; the trapnet fishery is of minor importance. The small-scale herring gillnet fishery has a declining importance in coastal areas in Sweden. In the trawl fishery, larger and more effective trawls have been introduced in the 1990s. Sprat bycatches in herring fisheries are low (<5% in ) in ICES Subdivision 30. Catch distribution Total landings (2012) are 100 kt (5% trapnets, 94% trawls, and 1% gillnets). Discards are negligible. Effects of the fisheries on the ecosystem With a low fishing mortality and high stock size, the effect of the fisheries on the ecosystem are estimated to be minor. Quality considerations The retrospective patterns from the assessment show an underestimation of SSB and overestimation of F. It is anticipated that extending the acoustic survey time-series will improve the quality of the assessment. The 2012 acoustic survey coverage was only 50% of what was required and therefore survey results are highly uncertain. Figure Herring in Subdivision 30, Bothnian Sea. Summary of stock assessment (weights in thousand tonnes). Recruitment in 2012 is estimated. Recruitment, F, and SSB have confidence intervals (95%) in the plot. Top right: SSB and F for the time-series used in the assessment. Scientific Basis Assessment type Stock data category Input data Discards and bycatch Indicators Other information Expert Group report Age-based analytical assessment (SAM). Category 1 Commercial catches (Finnish and Swedish landings, ages from catch sampling and survey, length frequencies from catch sampling) from 1973 to 2012; one survey index from one acoustic survey: 2007 to 2012 (3rd or 4th Q BIAS); one commercial index (cpue from Finnish trapnets); annual maturity data from Finnish commercial trawl catches before spawning; natural mortalities (0.2 for all ages). Discards are not included and assumed negligible. None. An Inter-Benchmark process for the Subdivision 30 herring stock was carried out in 2013 (IBPHER ). WGBFAS

3 8.4.9 Supporting information May 2013 ECOREGION STOCK Baltic Sea Herring in Subdivision 30 (Bothnian Sea) Reference points Type Value Technical basis MSY MSY B trigger % lower percentile of B MSY. t. Approach F MSY 0.15 Stochastic stock simulations with SOM. B lim Not defined. Precautionary B pa Not defined. Approach F lim Not defined. F pa Not defined. (Changed in 2013, IBPHER-30 (ICES, 2013a)). Outlook for 2014 Basis: F2013 = Fsq = mean F ( ) scaled = 0.1; SSB (2013) = ; R age 1 ( ) = 8.3 billion (random sample from the last 24 years in the model); Catch (2013) = Rationale Catch (2014) Basis F (2014) SSB (2014) SSB (2015) %SSB change 1) % Advice change 2) MSY approach F MSY % +43% Zero catch 0 F = % 100% Other options F sq % 2% F sq % 7% MSY approach F sq % +10% F sq % +26% Weights in thousand tonnes. 1) SSB in 2015 relative to SSB in ) Catch in 2015 relative to 2012 ICES advice for Following the ICES MSY approach implies a fishing mortality of 0.15, resulting in catches of no more than kt in This is expected to result in an SSB of 852 kt in No transition scheme applies as fishing mortality is below F MSY. Precautionary approach No precautionary reference points are defined. SSB is expected to remain far above any potential precautionary SSB reference points, in the short term. Additional considerations ICES recommends that activities that have a negative impact on the spawning habitat of herring, such as extraction of marine aggregates and construction on the spawning grounds, should not occur. Regulations and their effects Most of the Baltic herring catch in the Bothnian Sea is taken in a targeted herring fishery. During autumn and early winter there are mixed catches of Bothnian Sea herring and sprat, but these are minimal. With the present low fishing mortality it is expected that the dioxin concentration in the fish caught will increase, as the amount of older herring (which have higher accumulated amounts of dioxin) is likely to increase in the stock and in the catch. The EU has granted Finland and Sweden a standing dispensation to utilize and sell fish with higher contents of dioxin and PCB than the limit. No decrease in the dioxin contents has been observed in herring from the Bothnian Sea since the 1990s. The low growth rate is causing problems for the small-scale fisheries, which target large herring for human consumption, mainly on the

4 Swedish coast. Data and methods The stock was benchmarked this year. The assessment is based on catch data with a revised method of ageing for the years , on an acoustic time-series (first introduced to the assessment in 2012), and one commercial cpue series, revised in Uncertainties in the assessment and forecast The present assessment uses for tuning a fishery-independent acoustic survey time-series of six years, which is still relatively short, and a revised commercial trapnet cpue series. In 2012 the acoustic survey had a low coverage compared to earlier years. The wide confidence intervals in the stock estimates show that the results are uncertain. Variation in environmental conditions affects growth rate and natural mortality, but such variation cannot be quantified and all calculations are therefore based on a constant natural mortality (0.2) for all periods and age groups. The growing grey seal population in the Bothnian Sea has resulted in increased predation on herring, but this is considered to have a minimal impact in the assessment. Comparison with previous assessment and advice The assessment shows similar trends in terms of SSB and F, as compared to last year. The SSB in 2012 has been revised upwards by 59% and the F in 2011 has been revised downwards by 36%. The tuning series has been updated and revised and caused a large revision of last year's assessment. The basis for the advice is the same as in 2012, the ICES MSY approach. Assessment and management area The advice (Subdivision 30) and management areas (Subdivisions 30 and 31) are different. Sources ICES. 2013a. Report of the Inter-Benchmark Protocol for Herring in Subdivision 30 (IBP Her30), March 2013, By correspondence. ICES CM 2013/ACOM: pp. ICES. 2013b. Report of the Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (WGBFAS), April 2013, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen. ICES CM 2013/ACOM:10.

5 Table Herring in Subdivision 30, Bothnian Sea. ICES advice, management, and landings. Year ICES Predicted catch Agreed ICES Advice corresp. to advice TAC 2 landings TAC for eastern part of Subdivision 30, allowance for western part 1992 Status quo F Status quo F No specific advice TAC TAC F(97) = 1.4 * F(95) Status quo F Reduce catches Reduce catches F pa = F below F pa F below F pa F below F pa F below F pa F below F pa 88/ F below F pa F below F pa Same advice as last year F below F pa F below F pa < MSY framework (F MSY) MSY framework (F MSY) MSY approach (F MSY) 138 Weights in thousand tonnes. 1 Catch at F01. 2 TAC for Subdivisions 29N, 30, and 31 (IBSFC Management Unit 3), and from 2005 for Subdivisions 30 and 31.

6 Table Herring in Subdivision 30. Landings by country (tonnes). Year Finland Sweden Total * *Preliminary.

7 Table Herring in Subdivision 30, Bothnian Sea. Summary of stock assessment. Year Recruits Recruits TSB TSB SSB SSB F(3-7) F(3-7) (age 1) Low High Low High Low High Low High

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