Outlook for the World Paper Grade Pulp Market
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1 Outlook for the World Paper Grade Pulp Market European Conference March 2016 Kurt Schaefer Vice President, Fiber
2 The BSK BHK Price Spread in China Reversed in , Price Gap (RIGHT) China BEK Net China NBSK Net Source: RISI 2
3 BHK Prices in China Have Dropped Sharply in Recent Months BEK Net Price China NBHK SpotPriceUS BEK Spot Price Europe
4 We Had Been Expecting a Drop in BEK Prices in 2H15, and It (Finally) Happened Supply side issues at BHK mills in 2015 helped sustain prices at higher than expected levels Asia Symbol (RGE/APRIL) Rizhao mill: Was down due to drought in Shandong Province, China (Summer 2015) Cenibra (Brazil): Was down in part of November due to a dam break Reduced operating rates at two other mills (in Indonesia and Brazil) due to drought All issues were resolved by the end of
5 BHK Delivered Cash Cost Curve to Shanghai, Fourth Quarter
6 In China, the DP BEK Price Spread Has Moved Up to Almost $300 3,000 2,500 2,000 China Import Price DP China Import Price BEK 3,000 DP/BEK Price Spread 2, ,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,
7 BSK: US Spot Prices Are Down by Almost $250/Tonne Since Early , Net Price China Spot Price US Spot Price Europe
8 BSK: Downward Pricing Pressure Was Unexpectedly Persistent US P&W demand and shipments in 2015 falling about 2x expectations. 2.2% drop expected, 4.8% actual Pi Prices flat to down rather than rising ii Mechanical paper demand in the USA was down by about 11%, rather than the expected 3%, coming into the year. Demand for mechanical P&W paper in the USA is falling by more than newsprint demand. 8
9 BSK Delivered Cash Cost Curve to Shanghai, Fourth Quarter
10 Cost Curve Comparisons: BHK (Left), BSK (Right) 10
11 Near Term Indicators: BHK Producer Inventories Are Above Average 65 BHK 60 AVG BHK (37.7) 55 BSK AVG BSK (28.8) Source: PPPC, RISI
12 The High Season for Woodfree Paper Demand in W. Europe Is Almost Here Seasonal adjustment factors for W. European P&W 1.15 Stronger than Normal Demand Mechanical Papers Woodfree Papers Weaker than Normal Demand 0.80 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 12
13 2016 Forecast Drivers 13
14 FX: Strong Dollar Continues in 2016 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 EUR/USD CAD/USD BRL/USD $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 $
15 World Production of Paper and Board: Accelerating Slowly Graphic, Packaging and Specialty and Tissue; Percent tchange 8% 6% 5.7% 6.6% 4% 2% 0% 3.7% 3.3% 27% 2.7% 2.1% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1.2% 2% 2.0% 0.6% 4% 6% 5.4%
16 Most of the Growth in the Industry Is in Packaging Modest Effect on Market Pulp Packaging/Specialty P&W Tissue News Tissue + P&W
17 World Production of P&W Paper: Relative Stability in 2016? % Chang ge from Pre evious Year 5% 3% 1% 1% 3% 5% 7% % 3.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% 21% 2.6% 3.0% 2.9% 4.1% 4.6% 46% 5.1% 5.7% 5.3% Euro Area United States China World
18 P&W Consumption per Capita: Japan and South Korea Have Peaked. Has China? Per Capita GDP vs. P&W Consumption: 1970 to kg/person Japan South Korea China Per capita real GDP, US$
19 In China, P&W Production Is Leveling Off, While Tissue Continues to Grow 30 Tonnes per Year P&W Tissue Million
20 In China, Pulp Imports Posted Double Digit Percentage Changes in BSK Imports 900 BHK Imports /06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/061/071/081/091/101/111/121/131/141/15 20
21 What Are the Sources of China s Incremental Pulp Demand? Tissue production is rising ii by about 7% or 600, tpy Predominantly based on virgin fiber Policy closures of backward pulp and paper capacity favors BHK consumption growth (at the expense of local fiber, including nonwood) Rising demand for higher quality paper also raises BHK demand Continuing move toward more BHK, less BSK, as new paper machines are installed BSK demand for absorbent applications is growing Conclusion: Net importsof of BHKintoChina willcontinue to show solid growth 21
22 Key BHK Capacity Developments 2015 Old Town closures, 4Q15: Approximately 180,000 tonnes BHK/BSK 2016 Sun Paper Yanzhou switch to BHK Klabin Ortigueira, March: 1.1 million tonnes APP OKI, 4Q16/1Q17: million tonnes Alizay (France) restart postponed indefinitely 2017 Fibria, 4Q17: 1.85 million tonnes Vietracimex: 400,000 tonnes (Former Tofte mill) 22
23 Key BSK Capacity Developments 2016 Klabin Ortigueira, March: 400,000 tonnes fluff/sbsk IP Riegelwood, 2Q16: 360, tonnes fluff/sbsk Domtar Ashdown, 3Q16: >300,000 tonnes fluff/sbsk Sodra Varo, 4Q16: 275,000 tonnes Svetlogorksy BSK/BHK/DP, 2H2016: 400,000 tonnes 2017 Metsa Fibre, 3Q17 4Q17: 700,000 tonnes 23
24 2016 Forecast Summary Continuing strong dollar, with upside risk in terms of dollar strength outperforming the US economy Modest acceleration in growth of paper and board demand, d mostly because of packaging Supply side changes remain more prominent than usual For BHK, prices in China are already approaching delivered cash costs of Chinese pulp mills, which usually triggers a surge in demand and contraction of supply For BSK, second half of 2016 looks weak in terms of operating rates, especially for SBSK/fluff; but there is capacity rationalization risk, which is an upside risk for operating rates 24
25 2017 Forecast Summary Continuing ramp up of APP mill, plus Vietracimex and Fibria by the end of the year Modest acceleration in growth of paper and board demand, mostly b/c of packaging, and in pulp demand Very weak operating rates for BHK Weak environment for BSK as well, depending on potential capacity rationalization in the US 25
26 Thank you for your attention For more information: World Pulp & Recovered Paper 5 Year and 15 Year Forecasts World Pulp Monthly 26
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