Space Weather What Is The Real Risk And How Do We Communicate That?

Transcription

1 Space Weather What Is The Real Risk And How Do We Communicate That? Mike Hapgood, Given by Mario M. Bisi STFC RAL Space

2 m What is Space Weather? Disturbances of the upper atmosphere and nearspace environment that can disrupt technology 2016 RAL Space

3 Three Key Environments Space weather strongly influences: (sub) Surface geoelectric field (magnetic induction) Impacts electrically grounded infra-structure (power grid, rail systems, pipelines, ) Upper atmosphere (thermosphere-ionosphere) Impacts HF & LF systems, GNSS & other satellite applications, LEO satellite location & safety, Radiation in atmosphere and on surface Impacts digital systems (source of error/damage), also power control devices Also long-term radiation doses for aircrew & passengers

4 Electric Currents in the Earth and in Engineered Systems Magnetic storms add quasi-dc electric currents to power grids Also to other grounded infrastructure: Ocean cable power systems Pipelines Railway circuits

5 Space Weather and Power Grids Primary risk is cascade failure Grid loses reactive power, the power that supports the grid Can leads to rapid voltage collapse, e.g. 92 seconds from nominal operation to lights out during Quebec grid failure in 1989 Also in Malmö in 2003 (could have been avoided with warnings) Worst case (w/c) risk local/ regional outages of hours to few days Transformer failure possible Image is example from South Africa in October 2003 others in New Jersey and UK in 1989 In worst case this could lead to sustained loss of power in remote areas (but some folks think worse) Courtesy of Trevor Gaunt

6 GNSS, SBAS, CPDCL, Satcom, ACARS, SPACE WEATHER CHANGES THE IONOSPHERE IONOSPHERE HF VHF, radar, ILS, AVIATION USES MANY RADIO TECHNOLOGIES: Long-range systems (e.g. over oceans) send signals through the ionosphere

7 Galactic cosmic rays Solar energetic particles Pfotzer maximum illustrative, not definitive RADIATION DOSES VARY WITH SPACE WEATHER/CLIMATE AIRCRAFT FLY IN A SIGNIFICANT RADIATION ENVIRONMENT: Natural radiation from space, more intense than natural ground environment

8 Dialogue with Engineers Vital that scientists engage with engineers Critical to know how engineered systems are affected by SWx Only then can you assess what is worst case space weather: dialogue must drive the science Also vital to know how much engineers can minimise effects This defines what forecasts are useful: forecasts must complement engineering e.g. ESA/EU/Eurocontrol system to improve GNSS accuracy, e.g due to solar flares & magstorms

9 Dialogue with Governments Severe space weather is a concern for governments: As it can disrupt critical infrastructures (e.g. electricity, transport, finance), leading to major societal disruption Need to assess consequences of reasonable worst case event (= 1-in-100 year event) Only science can provide knowledge of events on these timescales (historical & proxy data, simulations, other stars, ) Driving national and international plans to forecast and manage these dangerous events e.g.

10 Communication is Vital Stress that space weather risks are tractable: If we use the good science we have, and that we plan to acquire, e.g. COSPAR Roadmap; And if we communicate this science openly and effectively. Avoid hyperbole and endof-the-world tales: Leave that to Hollywood!

11 What is the Economic Impact of Space Weather? (at least) Two distinct questions: Is it value at risk? The total damage? Needed by insurance industry So they can cost the risk and provide insurance They want numbers guided by good science (= to not go bust) Or how much we can reduce the cost through better forecasts? Needed to justify operational observations and modelling And better science linking to operations (R2O, O2R) High bar to investment, economic rather than political (unlike SSA/SST?)

12 How to Link SWx Science to Economics? Environment: Substorm, PCA, scintillation region, dayside blackout, Technical impact: Loss of power, diversion/delay of flights, Direct economic impact Wider impact Impact examples from other crises IO models

13 Satnav at Risk risk and Timing! Rapid change in atmospheric signal delay Errors >> 100m ( 0.3µs ) lasting up to 3 days Scintillation Loss of signal up to 3 days GNSS & space GNSS weather signal disruption

14 VULNERABILITIES OF CARS TO SPACE WEATHER: Safety critical software must handle GNSS outages and single event effects (SEEs) in digital systems SEEs from Cosmic Rays GNSS signal disruption by ionosphere and Sun cosmic radiation must be accounted for in automotive electronics systems design. June 2006

15 Conclusions Dialogue and engagement with range of partners are vital to the science and forecasting of space weather: With engineers to understand where our science can help them mitigate adverse impacts; With insurers to raise awareness of the risks from space weather and enable them to estimate financial value of the risks; With government risk managers to specify the reasonable worst-case risk and help them prepare; and With the general public to explore how they can contribute to managing these risks and how wider policy can help them. This all needs good communication: How first-class science makes this a tractable risk; And helps to overcome the hyperbole.