Niektoré dôsledky nízkych úrokových mier 1
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1 Ing. Marián Nemec, PhD. Katedra bankovníctva a medzinárodných financií Národohospodárska fakulta Ekonomická univerzita v Bratislave nemec.marian@gmail.com Niektoré dôsledky nízkych úrokových mier 1 Abstrakt: Mimoriadne nízke nominálne úrokové miery sa vo väčšine skúmaných krajín prejavili v poklese reálnych úrokových mier, vo väčšine prípadoch do oblasti záporných hodnôt. Zo všetkých skúmaných ekonomík boli jedine v Japonsku vo všetkých fázach skúmaného obdobia reálne úrokové miery pozitívne a pritom relatívne stabilné. Nízke a s výnimkou Japonska záporné reálne úrokové miery sa prejavili najmä na reláciách úspor a investícií, keď krajiny z nízkymi reálnymi úrokovými mierami vykazovali vysoké deficity na bežnom účte platobnej bilancie (najmä USA). Treba však zdôrazniť, že tu pôsobili aj iné vplyvy, najmä očakávania v ekonomike. Komplexný vplyv nízkych úrokovým mier na ekonomiku je preto potrebné skúmať aj v tomto kontexte. Kľúčové slová: úrokové sadzby, inflácia, Úvod Po vypuknutí finančnej a následne hospodárskej krízy začali centrálne banky vo väčšine krajín sveta vyvíjať aktivity smerujúce k prekonaniu krízy najmä cez znižovanie úrokových mier. Z významných centrálnych bánk uplatňujú túto politiku Federálny rezervný systém (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), ale tiež Európska centrálna banka (ECB).V jednotlivých krajinách sú pritom konkrétne ciele politiky nízkych úrokových sadzieb rôzne. Úrokové miery ovplyvňujú vývoj viacerých veličín v ekonomike, či už ide o agregátny dopyt, ekonomický rast a zamestnanosť, úspory, investície a výmenný kurz. Navyše, vývoj úrokových mier v jednej krajine, môže ovplyvňovať ekonomické veličiny v iných krajinách. 1. Dôsledky nízkych úrokových mier Snahy o znižovanie úrokových mier sú spojené s úsilím podporovať ekonomický rast a zamestnanosť uľahčovaním podmienok pre poskytovanie úverov pre spotrebu i investície. Znižujú sa tak úrokové náklady, čo umožňuje nakupovať viac spotrebných predmetov a zvyšovanie dopytu stimuluje rozširovanie výroby. Nižšie úrokové miery stimulujú rozširovanie výroby aj priamo cez nižšie náklady na investície. Vývoj úrokových mier pri zohľadnení inflácie štandardne ovplyvňuje hodnotu určitej meny oproti iným menám. Ak sa nič iné nemení a reálne úrokové miery v krajine sa zvyšujú, zahraniční investori sa dokrajiny snažia umiestňovať svoje voľné finančné prostriedky, pretože výnosnosť ich investovania sa zvyšuje. Dochádza ku konverzii cudzej meny za 1 Príspevok bol vypracovaný v rámci riešenia výskumnej úlohy VEGA 1/0613/12 Intenzita vzťahov medzi finančným sektorom a reálnou ekonomikou ako zdroj ekonomického rastu SR v postkrízovom období.
2 1998 Jan 1998 Aug 1999 Mar 1999 Oct 2000 May 2000 Dec 2001 Jul 2002 Feb 2003 Apr 2003 Nov 2004 Jun 2005 Jan 2005 Aug 2006 Mar 2006 Oct 2007 Dec 2008 Jul 2009 Feb 2009 Sep 2010 Apr 2010 Nov 2011 Jun 1998 Jan domácu menu a tým aj k rastu dopytu po mene a následne k posilňovaniu výmenného kurzu. Znižovanie úrokových mien má presne opačný účinok. Nízke úrokové miery vo vzťahu k inflácii - teda reálne úrokové miery - výrazne ovplyvňujú hodnotu úspor. V prípade záporných úrokových mier, reálna hodnota úspor klesá, čo obvykle ovplyvňuje sklon k úsporám v ekonomike. 2. Vývoj inflácie, nominálnych a reálnych úrokových mier vo vybraných ekonomikách Prehľad vývoja inflácie a nominálnych úrokových mier vo vyspelých ekonomikách ukazuje, že po vypuknutí finančnej krízy sa reálne úrokové miery dostali prevažne do oblasti záporných hodnôt. Obr. 1 Inflácia a nominálne úrokové sadzby - eurozóna 6, úrokové miery peňažného trhu Obr. 2 Inflácia a nominálne úrokové sadzby - Nemecko 6, úrokové miery peňažného trhu
3 1998 Jan 1998 Jan Obr. 3 Inflácia a nominálne úrokové sadzby - USA 7,500 6,500 5,500 4,500 3,500 2,500 1,500 0,500-0,500-1,500-2,500 - úrokové miery peňažného trhu Obr. 4 Inflácia a nominálne úrokové sadzby - Veľká Británia 8,000 7,000 6,000 - úrokové miery peňažného trhu Ako je zrejmé z prehľadu, v eurozóne a v rámci nej v Nemecku, a tiež v USA a vo Veľkej Británii, sa v poslednom období (mierne diferencovane, od rokov 2008, 2009, príp. 2010) inflácia nachádza na vyššej úrovni ako nominálne úrokové miery. 2 Znamená to, že reálna hodnota úspor uložených sporiteľmi v bankách nerastie, ale naopak, klesá. Výnimkou 2 Inflácia je reprezentovaná indexom a úrokové miery veličinou úrokových mier peňažného trhu. Údaje s mesačnou frekvenciou zisťovania sú čerpané z databázy Medzinárodného menového fondu (International Financial Statistics).
4 1998 Jan 1998 Nov 1999 Sep 2000 Jul 2002 Mar 2003 Jan 2003 Nov 2005 Jul 2006 May 2007 Mar 2008 Nov 2009 Sep 2010 Jul 2012 Mar 2013 Jan 1998 Jan z uvedeného pravidla je situácia v Japonsku, kde dochádza prevažne k miernemu, aj keď postupne klesajúcemu reálnemu zhodnocovaniu vkladov. Obr. 5 Inflácia a nominálne úrokové sadzby - Japonsko úrokové miery peňažného trhu Celkový prehľad o vývoji reálnych úrokových mier v skúmaných krajinách je ilustrovaný na obrázku 6. Obr.6 Reálne úrokové miery 7, REA RDEU RUSA RJPN RGB R - reálne úrokové miery, EA - eurozóna, DEU - Nemecko, JPN - Japonsko, GB - Veľká Británia V tabuľke 1 sú uvedené doplňujúce štatistické charakteristiky vývoja reálnych úrokových mier reprezentované aritmetickým priemerom a štandardnou odchýlkou pred krízou (od začiatku skúmaného obdobia do konca roku 2007), v období krízy (od začiatku roku 2008 doteraz) a za celé skúmané obdobie (január 1998-február 2013).
5 Z tabuľky je zrejmé, že pred vypuknutím krízy boli v priemere najvyššie reálne úrokové miery vo Veľkej Británii, potom v Nemecku, v eurozóne, v USA a najnižšie v Japonsku. V období krízy boli najnižšie reálne úrokové miery vo Veľkej Británii, potom v USA, v eurozóne, v Nemecku a najvyššie - na rozdiel od všetkých ostatných v kladnej oblasti - v Japonsku. V priemere za celé skúmané obdobie boli najvyššie reálne úrokové miery vo Veľkej Británii, potom v Nemecku, v eurozóne, v Japonsku a najnižšie v USA. Zo všetkých skúmaných ekonomík boli v Japonsku vo všetkých fázach skúmaného obdobia reálne úrokové miery pozitívne a stabilné. Prejavilo sa to aj v ich najnižšej volatilite (merané štandardnou odchýlkou). Menej stabilný vývoj sa pozoroval v Nemecku, nasledovanom eurozónou, vyššia nestabilita bola v USA a najvyššia vo Veľkej Británii (viac ako štvornásobne vyššia ako v Japonsku). Tabuľka 1 Základné štatistické charakteristiky reálnych úrokových mier (január 1998-február 2013) σ spolu kríza pred krízou spolu kríza pred krízou REA 0,49-0,93 1,23 1,51 1,26 1,05 RDEU 1,00-0,47 1,77 1,48 1,18 0,95 RUSA 0,24-1,55 1,18 2,13 1,54 1,80 RJPN 0,35 0,36 0,34 0,70 0,91 0,55 RGB 1,61-1,89 3,45 2,94 2,03 1,20 - jednoduchý aritmetický priemer σ - štandardná odchýlka Uvedený vývoj reálnych úrokových mier sa prejavil aj na vývoji iných ekonomických veličín, najmä na reláciách úspor a investícií, keď krajiny z nízkymi reálnymi úrokovými mierami vykazovali vysoké deficity na bežnom účte platobnej bilancie (najmä USA). Treba však zdôrazniť, že nízke úrokové miery nemusia samy osebe ovplyvniť mieru úspor, resp. reláciu úspory-investície. Je to v dôsledku toho, že výška úrokových mier vplýva na sporenie dvomi navzájom protirečivými smermi. Ak sa úrokové miery zvýšia, vyšší výnos z úspor môže motivovať k ďalšiemu sporeniu. Opačným smerom však pôsobí efekt bohatstva - vyšší výnos môže sporiteľ vnímať ako nárast bohatstva a namiesto sporenia môže zvyšovať svoje výdavky. Opačne, ak sa úrokové miery znížia, sporiteľ to môže vyhodnotiť ako zníženie bohatstva a výdavky naopak zníži a viac sporí, keď tu môže prevládať opatrnostný motív. To, ktorý motív má dominantný vplyv, závisí od ďalších okolností, najmä od charakteru očakávaní v ekonomike. Ak sú očakávania optimistické, môže prevládať tendencia zvyšovania výdavkov, v prípade pesimistických očakávaní sa výdavky môžu znižovať. Záver Znižovanie nominálnych úrokových mier po vypuknutí krízy sa prejavilo na vývoji viacerých veličín v ekonomike, či už ide o agregátny dopyt, ekonomický rast a zamestnanosť, úspory, investície a výmenný kurz. Vývoj úrokových mier v niektorých krajinách pritom ovplyvňoval ekonomické veličiny v iných krajinách.
6 Mimoriadne nízke nominálne úrokové miery sa vo väčšine skúmaných krajín prejavili v poklese reálnych úrokových mier, vo väčšine prípadoch do oblasti záporných hodnôt. Zo všetkých skúmaných ekonomík boli jedine v Japonsku vo všetkých fázach skúmaného obdobia reálne úrokové miery pozitívne a pritom relatívne stabilné. Nízke a s výnimkou Japonska záporné reálne úrokové miery sa prejavili najmä na reláciách úspor a investícií, keď krajiny z nízkymi reálnymi úrokovými mierami vykazovali vysoké deficity na bežnom účte platobnej bilancie (najmä USA). Treba však zdôrazniť, že tu pôsobili aj iné vplyvy, najmä očakávania v ekonomike. Komplexný vplyv nízkych úrokovým mier na ekonomiku je preto potrebné skúmať aj v tomto kontexte. Literatúra 1. Furth,S.: Research Review: Zero Lower Bound Interest Rates, 2. Hüther, M.: Finanzielle Repression, sichere Hafen und Vermögensteuer, Börsen- Zeitung, Frankfurt am Main, 17. mája International Monetary Fund Database: International Financial Statistics, June Rogoff, K.: The Long Mystery of Low Interest rates, 5. Steltzner, H.: Der Sparer wird enteignet, Frankfurter Algemeine Zeitung, Frankfurt am Main, 17. mája Weistroffer, Ch.: Ultra-low interest rates: How Japanese banks have coped, Deutsche Bank Research, June 10,
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