DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SLOVAK MOUNTAINS

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2 DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SLOVAK MOUNTAINS M. LAPIN,, P. ŠŤASTNÝ*, M. CHMELÍK* Div. of Meteorology and Climatology, Comenius University, Bratislava *Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute,, Bratislava shmu.sksk, shmu.sk, dmc.fmph.uniba.sk, shmu.sksk

SLOVAK REPUBLIC 49 36 sq. km, 44 m mean elevation, 5.4 mil. inhabitants, 747 mm mean precipitation, 7.

3 SLOVAK REPUBLIC sq. km, 44 m mean elevation, 5.4 mil. inhabitants, 747 mm mean precipitation, 7.5 C mean temp. 5% agricultural land, 41% forest land, 2% water area, 3% built-up areas, 5.4% above 1 m The High Tatras Hurbanovo

4 Schematic map of the Tatras Region LŠ PO GA

5 Observatory at the Lomnický štít, 2635 m a.s.l. Poprad Photo: M.Lapin, 24

6 VARIABILITY OF ANNUAL AIR TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM THE MEAN (GLOBAL AND HURBANOVO) dt [ C] 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,,8,6,4,2, -,2 -,4 -,6 -,8-1, -1,2-1,4-1,6 Deviation of mean annual air temperature dt from the average for Hurbanovo (blue) and for the Globe (red) Mean global air temperature is by WMO and at Hurbanovo by the SHMI data Globe Hurbanovo

7 AIR TEMPERATURE TREND AT HURBANOVO IN WINTERS 1871/2-24/5 T[ C] Mean winter (XII-II) temperature, 11-year moving averages and trendline of 2 nd order 4 HURBANOVO, 115 m a.s.l., 1871/2-24/ y = 6E-6x x r 2 =,7, r =

From year 1 to year 186 variations in average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere are shown (corresponding data from the Southern Hemisphere not available) reconstructed from

8 From year 1 to year 186 variations in average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere are shown (corresponding data from the Southern Hemisphere not available) reconstructed from proxy data (tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records). The line shows the 5-year average, the grey region the 95% confidence limit in the annual data. (IPCC, 21) Change-point?

9 ABSTRACT The period was significant in exceptional weather events occurrence in Slovakia Very reliable time series of daily data measured by the Climatological Observatory at Hurbanovo, 115 m a.s.l., SW Slovakia; Sliač, 33 m a.s.l., central Slovakia; Poprad, 695 m a.s.l., N Slovakia; Lomnický Štít, 2635 m a.s.l., N Slovakia in and at the Aerological Observatory Gánovce near to Poprad in , have been used Analysis of variability, i.e. daily data distribution curves temporal changes, including extreme values with low probabilities, is included The April August season has been analyzed because of nearly homogeneous humidity patterns and serious importance for agriculture, water economy and tourism

10 CLIMATE CHANGE POSSIBILITIES (adopted from the IPCC, 21) Probability of occurrence 5 Probability of occurrence 5 Probability of occurrence 5 45 Probability of occurrence Temperature Temperature Precipitation Precipitation Previous Climate Previous Climate Previous Climate New Climate Previous Climate New Climate New Climate New Climate Average Cold Average Average Dry Average Hot Wet

11 MEASURED DAILY TEMPERATURE DATA ANALYSIS AND SCENARIOS FOR N[%] Frequency distribution of daily mean normalised temperatures TN for Hurbanovo in Selected periods 1.Apr.-31.Aug. Season Deviations of daily air temperature means from the normal CCCM2 is Canadian CGCM2 model In the CCCM2, SRES A2 outputs modified for Hurbanovo T N [ C]

12 Deviation of mean monthly and mean annual (Year) air temperature (T) in the , and 2-24 periods from the normal for the Hurbanovo Observatory, 115 m a.s.l., SW Slovakia dt[ C] Deviations of monthly and annual air temperature means from the normal at Hurbanovo 3, , , ,5 1,,5, -,5-1, -1,5 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Year

13 Deviation of mean monthly and mean annual (Year) air humidity (U) in the , and 2-24 periods from the normal for the Hurbanovo Observatory, 115 m a.s.l., SW Slovakia U[%] Deviation of monthly and annual air humidity means from the normal at Hurbanovo I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Year

14 Annual course of selected normalized air temperature (T N ) characteristics at the Hurbanovo Observatory calculated from daily means in the period (Max, Min the highest and the lowest daily values) and from the period (q 3, q 1 upper and lower quartiles in daily data, Median (q2) and Standard deviation (Sd)) T N [ C] Normalised air temperature daily means statistics at Hurbanovo in (deviations from 5-yr mean) Max Sd -15 q3 q2-18 q1 Min I. 1-II. 1-III. 1-IV. 1-V. 1-VI. 1-VII. 1-VIII. 1-IX. 1-X. 1-XI. 1-XII.

15 Annual course of selected relative humidity (U) characteristics at the Hurbanovo Observatory calculated from daily means in the period (Max, Min the highest and the lowest daily values) and from the period (q 3, q 1 upper and lower quartiles in daily data, 5-year daily means and 11-day moving averages from 5-year daily means) U[%] Annual course of selected mean daily relative humidity characteristics at Hurbanovo in (mean values and 11-day moving averages are in the centre of the scale) 1 Max 9 8 q3 7 6 q1 5 4 Min Max and Min are from I. 1-II. 1-III. 1-IV. 1-V. 1-VI. 1-VII. 1-VIII. 1-IX. 1-X. 1-XI. 1-XII. 1-I.

16 Annual course of selected relative humidity (U) characteristics at the L. Štít Observatory calculated from daily means in the period (Max, Min the highest and the lowest daily values) and from the period (q 3, q 1 upper and lower quartiles in daily data, 5-year daily means and 11-day moving averages from 5-year daily means) U[%] Annual course of selected mean daily relative humidity characteristics at L.Štít in (mean values and 11-day moving averages are in the centre of the scale) 1 Max 9 q q Min Max and Min are from I. 1-II. 1-III. 1-IV. 1-V. 1-VI. 1-VII. 1-VIII. 1-IX. 1-X. 1-XI. 1-XII. 1-I.

17 Relative frequency distribution of mean daily temperatures T, in intervals from 4 C < T < -1.9 C to 3 C < T < 32.1 C, for Hurbanovo and the 1 st April to 31 st August season; for selected periods in ; the curve is nearly identical with those for the period N[%] Seasonal relative frequency distribution of daily mean temperatures T for Hurbanovo in Selected periods - years st April - 31 st August season T [ C]

18 Relative frequency distribution of normalised mean daily temperatures T N, in intervals from 14 C < T < C to 12 C < T < 14.1 C, for Hurbanovo and the 1 st April to 31 st August season; for selected periods in ; the curve is nearly identical with those for the period N[%] Relative frequency distribution of daily mean normalised temperatures T N for Hurbanovo in Selected periods - years 1 st April - 31 st August season T N [ C]

19 Relative frequency distribution of normalised mean daily temperatures T N, in intervals from 14 C < T < C to 12 C < T < 14.1 C, for Poprad and the 1 st April to 31 st August season; for selected periods in ; the curve is nearly identical with those for the period N[%] Relative frequency distribution of daily mean normalised temperatures T N for Poprad in Selected periods - years st April - 31 st August season T N [ C]

20 Relative frequency distribution of normalised mean daily temperatures T N, in intervals from 14 C < T < C to 12 C < T < 14.1 C, for Gánovce, 85 hpa, 2 p.m, and the 1 st April to 31 st August season; for selected periods in ; the 7 hpa curves are very similar N[%] Relative frequency distribution of daily mean normalised temperatures T N for 85 hpa in Selected periods - years 1 st April - 31 st August season T N [ C]

21 Relative number of days with selected mean daily temperatures (T < 1.1 C; 1 < T < 2.1; T > 2 C) and linear trend for Hurbanovo in the April to August season and the period N[%] Relative number (N) and trend (Tr) of days with air temperature T at Hurbanovo in Apr.-Aug < 1.1 C > 2 C Tr 1 Tr 1-2 Tr

22 Relative number of days with selected mean daily temperatures (T < 6.1 C; 6. < T < 16.1; T > 16 C) and linear trend for Poprad in the April to August season and the period N[%] Relative number (N) and trend (Tr) of days with air temperature T at Poprad in Apr.-Aug < 6.1 C > 16 C Tr 6 Tr 6-16 Tr

23 Relative frequency distribution of daily relative humidity means deviation U N from the normal in intervals from -4% < U N -35% to 35% < U N 4%, for Hurbanovo and the 1 st April to 31 st August season; for selected periods in ; the curve is nearly identical with those for the period N[%] Frequency distribution (N) curves of deviation of daily air humidity means U at Hurbanovo in st Apr st Aug. season U [%]

24 Relative frequency distribution of daily relative humidity means deviation U N from the normal in intervals from -7% < U N -35% to 35% < U N 4%, for L. Štít and the 1 st April to 31 st August season; for selected periods in ; the curve is nearly identical with those for the period N[%] Frequency distribution (N) curves of normalised daily air humidity means U N at L.Štít in st Apr st Aug. season U N [%]

25 Relative frequency distribution of daily relative humidity means deviation U N from the normal in intervals from -7% < U N -35% to 35% < U N 4%, for Gánovce, 85 hpa, 2 p.m., and the 1 st April to 31 st August season; for selected periods in N[%] Frequency distribution (N) curves of normalised daily air humidity means U N at 85 hpa in st Apr st Aug. season Term: 2 h p.m U N [%]

26 Relative frequency distribution of daily relative humidity means deviation U N from the normal in intervals from -7% < U N -35% to 35% < U N 4%, for Gánovce, 7 hpa, 2 p.m., and the 1 st April to 31 st August season; for selected periods in N[%] Frequency distribution (N) curves of normalised daily air humidity means U N at 7 hpa in st Apr st Aug. season Term: 2 h p.m U N [%]

27 Relative air humidity means (U) and standard deviations (StDev) calculated from daily U means for the Hurbanovo Observatory in the April to August season (represents the lowest U during the year) U Relative air humidity means (U) and standard deviations (StDev) from daily U means [%] for Hurbanovo in the April-August season (e.g. season with low daily U means within the year) StDev StDev [%] r 2 =, U r 2 =,

28 Relative number of days N with selected mean daily relative air humidity (U < 5.1%; 5 < U < 7.1%; U 7.1%) and linear trend for Hurbanovo in the April to August season and the period N[%] Relative number (N) and trend (Tr) of days with U (relative air humidity) at Hurbanovo in the 1 st Apr.-31 st Aug. seasons 8 Elaborated by: M. Lapin, data SHMI 7 < 5.1% 5.1-7% > 7% Tr 5.1 Tr Tr 7 r 2 =,23 r 2 =,192 r 2 =,

29 Relative number of days N with selected mean daily relative air humidity (U < 6.1%; 6 < U < 8.1%; U 8.1%) and linear trend for L.Štít in the April to August season and the period N[%] Relative number (N) and trend (Tr) of days with U (relative air humidity) at L.Štít in the 1 st Apr.-31 st Aug. seasons < 6.1% 6.1-8% > 8% Tr 5.1 Tr Tr 7 r 2 =,144 r 2 =,73 r 2 =,

30 Relative number of days N with selected mean daily relative air humidity (U < 6.1%; 6 < U < 8.1%; U 8.1%) and linear trend for Gánovce, 7 hpa, in the Apr. to Aug. season and the period N[%] Relative number (N) and trend (Tr) of days with U (relative air humidity) at 7 hpa level in the 1 st Apr.-31 st Aug. 6 5 < 6.1% 6.1-8% r 2 =,192 > 8% Tr 5.1 Tr Tr 7 2 h p.m

31 CONCLUSIONS Only selected results are presented here; climatic statistics are widely used in various practice Change-point of global warming impact can be detected by detailed statistical analysis Downscaling of global GCMs output requires statistical elaboration of measured daily data No scenario is possible to design without use of observed data series as control climate Change in convective processes can influence also the development of relative air humidity in the mountainous regions (Lomnický štít and aerological series)

32 Thank You for the Attention Further details on the website: dmc.fmph.uniba.sk fmph.uniba.sk

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