Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife

Transcription

1 Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Benjamin Zuckerberg, Karine Princé, and Lars Pomara Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin-Madison

2 Acknowledgements Brad Potter Upper Midwest and Great Lakes LCC Karl Martin Wisconsin DNR Olivia LeDee, Mike Larson Minnesota DNR Chris Hoving Michigan DNR John Tirpak Megan Skrip Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks LCC University of Rhode Island Dave Lorenz, Mike Notaro, Brooke Bateman David Bonter, Wes Hochachka UW-Madison Cornell Jeremy Ash, Jesse Koyen, Win Sim Tan Research assistants Zuckerberg Climate Change Ecology Lab

3 Anthropogenic Climate Change Rising temperatures Shifting precipitation Attenuating winters Onset of spring Extreme weather Ocean acidification

4 Ecological response Phenology: Shifts in time Distributions: Shifts in space Dynamics: Shifts in demography Biotic interactions: Shifts in communities

5 Ecological response Phenology: Shifts in time Distributions: Shifts in space Dynamics: Shifts in demography Biotic interactions: Shifts in communities

6 Poleward Shifts

7 Poleward Shifts Relationship between observed and expected range shifts in response to climate change Northward shift of 16.9 km per decade Chen et al Science

8 Poleward Shifts More than half of observed animal range boundaries have already shown a response to anthropogenic warming

9 Sentinels of Climate Change Shifting ranges of individual species result in a re-shuffling of communities

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11 Southeast Region Northern Cardinal Mourning Dove Tufted Titmouse Carolina Wren Red-bellied Woodpecker American Goldfinch Downy Woodpecker Blue Jay

12 Mid-Atlantic Region Black-capped Chickadee Northern Cardinal Tufted Titmouse Mourning Dove Northern Cardinal Mourning Dove Tufted Titmouse Carolina Wren Dark-eyed Junco House Finch Downy Woodpecker Red-bellied Woodpecker Red-bellied Woodpecker American Goldfinch Downy Woodpecker Blue Jay

13 Great Lake Region Black-capped Chickadee Dark-eyed Junco American Goldfinch American Tree Sparrow Blue Jay Mourning Dove Northern Cardinal White-breasted Nuthatch Black-capped Chickadee Northern Cardinal Tufted Titmouse Mourning Dove Northern Cardinal Mourning Dove Tufted Titmouse Carolina Wren Dark-eyed Junco House Finch Downy Woodpecker Red-bellied Woodpecker Red-bellied Woodpecker American Goldfinch Downy Woodpecker Blue Jay

14 Species Thermal Index (STI ) measures the long-term temperature experienced by individual species over its range STI =

15 Community Thermal Index (CTI) reflects, for a species assemblage, the balance between cold- and warm-temperature dwelling species n CTI j = n i=1 n STI i CTI j = i=1 n a i,j STI i a i,j i=1 Unweighted CTI Weighted CTI Devictor V et al. (2008) Birds are tracking climate warming, but not fast enough. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 275,

16 CTI Community Thermal Index (CTI) T 0 T 1

17 Community Thermal Index ± 0.1 x 10-3 C yr -1 Warm-adapted birds increasing in their dominance

18 Community Thermal Index

19 Which species are driving CTI trends? Community Thermal Index Jackknife analysis: species contribution (C sp ) 2.7 x 10-3 C sp 1.6 x

20 C sp Which species are driving CTI trends? Smaller-bodied Southerly Increasing Body mass (log-scale) Northern range boundary Trend in occupancy

21 Wildlife response Phenology: Shifts in time Distributions: Shifts in space Dynamics: Shifts in demography Biotic interactions: Shifts in communities

22 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Sensitivity Populations respond to environmental change Exposure Conditions vary over time and space Demographic niche modeling Vulnerability Conservation efforts

23 Relative abundance Climate change and population cycling Stronger Weaker cycling Ruffed Grouse Bonasa umbellus

24 Sensitivity Ruffed Grouse Bonasa umbellus Ron Austing Adult and juvenile survival and nest success, Studies 17 Site-year combinations 51 Individual-years, telemetered birds 2490 Monitored nests 498

25 Sensitivity Winter Climate Anomalies Cold High snow Warm Rain Year 2000 Precip in driest month High expected survival Cold Low snow Warm Low snow Low expected survival Diana McElroy

26 Sensitivity Nonbreeding survival Min temp * Min precip Deviance explained: 89% Predicted survival, 2000 Diana McElroy

27 Sensitivity Nest success Max temp + Max precip Deviance explained: 68% Predicted nest success, 2000

28 Exposure Spatially explicit demographic models

29 Exposure Spatially explicit demographic models N per cell, Life cycle m ρ ϕ Nest success Breeding season survival Nonbreeding survival

30 Ruffed Grouse spring drumming survey >300 survey routes Minnesota DNR Michigan DNR Wisconsin DNR

31 Model Evaluation N per cell, 2000 Mean drums / route Model prediction: mean N / cell

32 Future forecasts CMIP5, rcp8.5 N per cell, 2060 Mean drums / route Model prediction: N / cell

33 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change Poleward shifts Reshuffling of species Sensitivity Climate influences vital rates Exposure Variation in climate variability Population dynamics Cycling and extinction risk