Effects of Climate Change on Species and Ecosystems

Transcription

1 Effects of Climate Change on Species and Ecosystems Dr. David Karowe Department of Biological Sciences Some species are already responding to climate change 1. Geographic range shifts 2. Phenological shifts (seasonal timing) 3. Changes in population size

2 For plants, most documented range changes are altitudinal shifts e.g. the hardwood/conifer transition zone on Vermont mountains moved upslope ~100 meters from Some animals are expanding their ranges poleward e.g. some North American birds Golden-winged warbler Swainson s thrush Black-billed cuckoo

3 Many plant species now leaf out and flower significantly earlier In Ohio, budburst for white oak is now 23 days earlier than around 1900 May 3 April 10

4 For plants and animals, observed range and phenological shifts provide a clear climate signal However, most plants and animals have not yet displayed any range shift e.g. 79% of North American birds Black-capped chickadee White-throated sparrow or phenological shift e.g. 84% of British plants Yellow sweet clover Roundleaf geranium

5 Species that have not been tracking climate change are already declining - in Thoreau Woods over the last 150 years, major declines for plant species with no phenological shift Blueberry family Rose family Dogwood family - European bird species that are not migrating earlier are also declining Pied flycatcher What does the future hold? It depends on the choices we make

6 What is the likely future fate of species? Climate Envelope Modeling is used to predict future changes in range and population size General approach: a. Determine the levels of important climate variables (usually temperature and precipitation) that occur within the species current geographic range b. Use climate models to predict where those levels will exist in the future c. Make an assumption about dispersal (usually full or none ) d. Compare current and future suitable area to infer population increase or decrease

7 What is the fate of 26 species of European forest herbs? - woodland horsetail is predicted to decline, due to shrinking range current future - wild peony is predicted to increase, due to increased range current future

8 - but fate of European cohosh is unclear, since it must migrate to reach its future habitat? - even if suitable habitat exists, species may not be able to reach it in time Australian Banksia are very dry-adapted species, so will they be climate winners?

9 Typical result: many more climate losers than winners Under 2 o warming with full dispersal: 21 winners 80 losers (5 go extinct) Under 4 o warming with no dispersal: 0 winners 97 losers (24 go extinct) Under 2 o warming, huge losses are predicted for 5,200 African plant species 40% of species go extinct (full dispersal) 55% of species go extinct (no dispersal)

10 African mammals are likely to be adversely affected For 275 species under 3.5 o warming : 20% extinction (full dispersal) 40% extinction (no dispersal) Which species are particularly vulnerable? 1. Species that have nowhere to go 2. Species that live in the tropics 3. Species that have specific timing requirements 4. Species that live in coral reefs

11 High latitude species may have nowhere to go - most, but not all, polar bear populations are predicted to decline drastically by 2050 Alaska Seals also rely on sea ice, so are highly vulnerable too

12 Scandinavian bird species are predicted to lose 80% of their suitable habitat by 2080 In Antarctica, Emperor and Adelie penguins need ice but Chinstrap and Gentoo penguins nest on land

13 High altitude species may also have nowhere to go Globally, 18% of Earth s 1,009 montane bird species are predicted to lose at least half of their range by 2100

14 Tropical species have low temperature ranges, and are very likely to experience disappearing climates Low Moderate High Probability of disappearing climate Therefore, tropical species are likely to be particularly vulnerable Where do most of Earth s species live?

15 Migrating species are likely to be vulnerable because of their specific timing requirements - due to loss of synchrony at important stopover sites - daylength and star patterns vs. temperature Coral reef species are likely to be particularly vulnerable because both warming and ocean acidification can cause bleaching

16 Even 2 o warming is likely to cause a massive increase in bleaching events Acidification alone may make most or all of the ocean unsuitable for corals ppm CO 2 may cause near total loss of coral reefs

17 Climate change has the potential to cause Earth s 6 th mass extinction What will climate change mean for Michigan species?

18 In Michigan, 22 tree species are predicted to decline by % by 2100, including: sugar maple balsam fir American beech big tooth and trembling aspen northern white cedar 20 southern species are predicted to arrive in Michigan loblolly pine shortleaf pine Virginia pine sweetgum sugarberry

19 50 Michigan bird species predicted to decline by % Common loon White-throated sparrow Veery Yellow-bellied sapsucker Evening grosbeak Red-breasted nuthatch Magnolia warbler Blackburnian warbler 15 new species are predicted to arrive in Michigan northern bobwhite yellow-billed cuckoo little blue heron cattle egret Mississippi kite scissor-tailed flycatcher painted bunting summer tanager

20 Bottom Line: 1. We re causing climate to change at an alarming rate 2. If we continue on our current path, the future is very likely to include unprecedented hardships for all of Earth s species, including humans 3. Many of the worst scenarios can be avoided by choices we have available today Global Warming Train Ad included here; can be seen at

21 Thank you for listening Now please tell others