Changing Lanes: Identifying the Future of Airport Ground Access

Transcription

1 Changing Lanes: Identifying the Future of Airport Ground Access ACI NA Winter Board & CEO Forum Presented by Jim Jarvis, Ricondo Associates Prepared by Craig Leiner February 4 th, 2016 Orlando, Florida

2 Identify the future that has already happened - Peter F. Drucker

3 Discussion Outline Perspective before Precision Trends and Patterns Preparing for the Future

4 How much has happened in these 50 years a period more remarkable than any, I will continue to say, in the annals of mankind. -Benjamin Disraeli, 1873

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6 1961

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8 Navigating the next revolution Revolution Year Advances Steam, bifocals, mechanical production equipment, photosynthesis, chronometer Division of labor, electricity, mass production, aspirin, periodic table, telephone Electronics, IT, automated production, graphical user interface? 4 Cyber-physical systems, shared economy, robotics Adapted from: World Economic Forum, Davos 2016

9 Who s driving you now?

10 Does your car have any idea why my car pulled it over?

11 Discussion Outline Perspective before Precision Trends and Patterns Demographic Technology Preparing for the Future

12 The Demographics of Travel Generations: Millennials, Boomers The Graying of North America

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14 Millennials Multi-taskers Connected Tech savvy Work-life alignment Less than 70 percent of 16- to 24-year-olds have a driver s license Boomers Love working Forever young Tech savvy More than 25% are on a diet

15 The Business Traveler Category Sky Warrior Self-Emp. Avg. Business Joe/Jane Cost-Cautious Global Go-Getter The Millennial Overlay Attributes Loyalty program 34% 6 trips/year Productivity 23% 5.5 trips/year Fare-sensitive 21% 5 trips/year Low fees/low fares 14% 4 trips/year Elite status, lounges 8% 5 trips/year Second highest number of international trips; more diverse; book closer to trip; frequent changes 5 trips/year

16 Millennial Spending on Business Flights To Grow 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 45 Silent Baby Boomer 50% 40% 30% 20% Gen X Millennial igen Other 10% 0%

17 The Graying of North America In 2025 there will be 70 million beneficiaries of Social Security and Medicare, about 60 percent more than in 2007 Getting policies right for the aging population: Physical, sensory, cognitive challenges Accommodations for service animals Irregular operations Baggage Wayfinding

18 Number of person to 2060 (millions)

19 Canadians in Context By 2050 one in four expected to be 65 or over % Source: Statistics Canada

20 11 Technologies to Transform Transportation Robotics and automation Automated vehicles On-demand ride services (TNCs) Advanced analytics and machine learning Hyperloop Innovative concepts for protecting peds, and bicyclists The Internet of Things Additive manufacturing (3D printing) Materials science in infrastructure Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) Wireless power transfer Adapted from Volpe Center, Cambridge, MA

21 Robotics ABB Aeroenvironment Cognex Deere Google GM Krones Lincoln Elec. Mitsubishi Northrup Rockwell Siemens Toshiba

22 Automation Probability of automation by occupation Skilled trades Caring Leisure Service Managers Directors Professionals Decreasing median pay

23 The State of Global Youth Unemployment

24 I ll pause for a moment so you can let this information sink in.

25 Discussion Outline Perspective before Precision Trends and Patterns Preparing for the Future

26 Identify the future that has already happened Exploit changes that have already occurred and use them as opportunities Develop a method for perceiving and analyzing these changes Look systematically at changes in society, demographics, science and technology - Peter F. Drucker

27 "You have to learn the rules of the game and then you have to play better than anyone else."

28 To learn the rules of the game create your own innovation lab A diversified work group, crossing disciplines, departments, generations, and ethnicities to perceive and analyze changes Invest in accurate and reliable data and analytics Air passenger surveys Market research ACI ASQ

29 Have your work group consider facilities, operations, regulations, technology Parking Garages Taxi and Limo Pools Rental Car Centers Curb Management Vehicle/Ped Interactions Airport Regulations Insurance Liability Privacy Cyber security

30 Resources Newsletters Priceonomics blog Wired Magazine Government Technology Benedict s Weekly (mobile computing) Web sites Santa Fe Institute And books Innovation and Entrepreneurship - Peter Drucker Where Good Ideas Come From - Steve Johnson Creative Intelligence - Bruce Nussbaum Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy - Joseph Schumpeter

31 The characteristic of the innovator is the ability to envisage as a system what to others are unrelated, separate elements. Thank you