The Demographics of Intellectual Property

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1 The Demographics of Intellectual Property RICHARD SOUSA HOOVER INSTITUTION Stanford University JIRICO O.P. Jindal Global University June 10, 2017

2 Intellectual Property 1. Patents 2. Copyright 3. Trade Secrets 4. Trademark 5. Personal privacy and publicity 6. Misappropriation

3 What This Presentation Is Not About Patent Trolls Patent Holdup Patent Thickets Patent Holdout Royalty Stacking Injunctive Relief Efficient Infringement Venue Shopping Patent Pools Abuse of Market Power

4 The US Constitution Article I, Section 8, Clause 8 securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries Only right cited in the US Constitution

5 US Patent #1

6 [T]he patent laws Before then, any man might instantly use what another had invented; so that the inventor had no special advantage from his own invention. The patent system changed this; securing to the inventor, for a limited time, the exclusive use of his invention; and thereby added the fuel of interest to the fire of genius, in the discovery and production of new and useful things. Abraham Lincoln Lectures on Discoveries and Inventions,

7 What is the most patented device in US?

8 Why Do Patents Matter?

9 1. Aging Population 1. Increased life expectancies More older people 2. Inverted age pyramid Fewer workers 3. Increased medical expenditures End of life care Diabetes and Alzheimer's

10 Data source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, (accessed ) US Age Profile Population Distribution by Age Bracket 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

11 Old Age Dependency Ratio 16.0 Workers per Retiree USA India

12 Old Age Dependency Ratio United States India

13 US Population Growth, 65+ (millions)

14 2. Demand Changes Pharmaceuticals Medical devices Transportation Communications Battery life and miniaturization Leisure and travel

15

16 Sustainability Adaptability Source: (accessed )

17 Thomas Fogarty

18

19 3. Seismic Changes Industrial Revolution Cotton gin Assembly line Telephone & telegraph Transistors Personal computers Miniaturization Digital Revolution Sewing machine Railway system Aviation Internet Social media Fiber optics

20 600 GDP Billions of US$ (1990) Germany UK Russia USA Data source: The Maddison Project, (accessed )

21 10,000 GDP Billions of US$ (1990) 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Germany UK Russia/USSR USA

22 10 GDP Billions of US$ (1990) - Log terms USA Russia/USSR UK 6 Germany Data source: (accessed )

23 10 9 GDP Billions of US$ (2015) - Log terms - - Adjusted for PPP - USA China India 8 Japan Germany Russia UK

24 Academic Research 1950s patent system stimulates research by private firms 1990s thru 2000 Patents, IPR protection and economic growth fit hand in glove patents impede innovation patents are monopolies, not licenses Lemley and Shapiro 2014-present patents stimulate innovation

25 Source: Alexander Galetovic, Stephen Haber, Ross Levine, An Empirical Examination of Patent Holdup, Journal of Competition Law & Economics (2015) 11 (3):

26

27 Value of US Intellectual Capital, Percent of Sector s Value Attributable to IC Media (1) Telecomm (2) Health Care Equipment (7) Pharma & Biotech (9) Transportation (11) Economywide--44.2% Source: Kevin Hassett and Robert Shapiro,

28 4. GDP Growth and IP Rights Patent protection, 2016 GDP growth, Fitted values Source: Property Rights Alliance, The International Property Rights Index 2016

29 Changing IPR Environment IND USA Change in overall IP environment Avg annual GDP growth, Fitted values

30 Changing IPR Environment IND USA Change in IP protection Avg annual GDP growth, Fitted values

31 GDP Growth & Change in IP Rights Change in Overall Intellectual Property Rights Environment largest economies.37*.40*.43** 110 countries.39**.41**.40** Change in Strength of Property Rights Protection largest economies.40*.32.34* 110 countries.26**.30**.33** ** significant at 5% level; * significant at 10% level

32 1. Demographic shifts Aging population 2. Changing demand Requires innovation 3. Creative industries Patent intensive 4. Patent protection Greater growth

33 THANKS Alex Galetovic Stephen Haber Miles Fowler Isabel Lopez Rumei Su Leilei Xu Property Rights Alliance O.P. Jindal Global University

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