Studies in Computational Intelligence

Transcription

1 Studies in Computational Intelligence Volume 809 Series editor Janusz Kacprzyk, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland

2 The series Studies in Computational Intelligence (SCI) publishes new developments and advances in the various areas of computational intelligence quickly and with a high quality. The intent is to cover the theory, applications, and design methods of computational intelligence, as embedded in the fields of engineering, computer science, physics and life sciences, as well as the methodologies behind them. The series contains monographs, lecture notes and edited volumes in computational intelligence spanning the areas of neural networks, connectionist systems, genetic algorithms, evolutionary computation, artificial intelligence, cellular automata, self-organizing systems, soft computing, fuzzy systems, and hybrid intelligent systems. Of particular value to both the contributors and the readership are the short publication timeframe and the world-wide distribution, which enable both wide and rapid dissemination of research output. More information about this series at

3 Vladik Kreinovich Nguyen Ngoc Thach Nguyen Duc Trung Dang Van Thanh Editors Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics 123

4 Editors Vladik Kreinovich Department of Computer Science University of Texas at El Paso El Paso, TX, USA Nguyen Ngoc Thach Banking University HCMC Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Nguyen Duc Trung Banking University HCMC Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Dang Van Thanh TTC Group Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam ISSN X ISSN (electronic) Studies in Computational Intelligence ISBN ISBN (ebook) Library of Congress Control Number: Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

5 Preface Economics is a very important and, at the same, a very difficult discipline. It is very difficult to predict how an economy will evolve, and it is very difficult to find out which measures we should undertake to make economy prosper. One of the main reasons for this difficulty is that in economics, there is a lot of uncertainty: Different difficult-to-predict events can influence the future economic behavior. To make good predictions, to make reasonable recommendations, we need to take this uncertainty into account. In the past, most related research results were based on using traditional techniques from probability and statistics, such as p-value-based hypothesis testing and the use of normal distributions. These techniques led to many successful applications, but in the last decades, many examples emerged showing the limitations of these traditional techniques: Often, these techniques lead to non-reproducible results and to unreliable and inaccurate predictions. It is therefore necessary to come up with new techniques for processing the corresponding uncertainty, techniques that go beyond the traditional probabilistic techniques. Such techniques and their economic applications are the main focus of this book. This book contains both related theoretical developments and practical applications to various economic problems. The corresponding techniques range from more traditional methods such as methods based on Bayesian approach to innovative methods utilizing ideas and techniques from quantum physics. A special section is devoted to fixed point techniques mathematical techniques corresponding to the important economic notions of stability and equilibrium. And, of course, there are still many remaining challenges and many open problems. We hope that this volume will help practitioners to learn how to apply various uncertainty techniques to economic problems, and help researchers to further improve the existing techniques and to come up with new techniques for dealing with uncertainty in economics. We want to thank all the authors for their contributions and all anonymous referees for their thorough analysis and helpful comments. v

6 vi Preface The publication of this volume is partly supported by the Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Our thanks to the leadership and staff of the Banking University, for providing crucial support. Our special thanks to Prof. Hung T. Nguyen for his valuable advice and constant support. We would also like to thank Prof. Janusz Kacprzyk (Series Editor) and Dr. Thomas Ditzinger (Senior Editor, Engineering/Applied Sciences) for their support and cooperation in this publication. January 2019 Vladik Kreinovich Nguyen Duc Trung Nguyen Ngoc Thach Dang Van Thanh

7 General Theory Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Econometrics... 3 Hung T. Nguyen, Nguyen Duc Trung, and Nguyen Ngoc Thach Everything Wrong with P-Values Under One Roof William M. Briggs Mean-Field-Type Games for Blockchain-Based Distributed Power Networks Boualem Djehiche, Julian Barreiro-Gomez, and Hamidou Tembine Finance and the Quantum Mechanical Formalism Emmanuel Haven Quantum-Like Model of Subjective Expected Utility: A Survey of Applications to Finance Polina Khrennikova Agent-Based Artificial Financial Market Akira Namatame A Closer Look at the Modeling of Economics Data Hung T. Nguyen and Nguyen Ngoc Thach What to Do Instead of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing or Confidence Intervals David Trafimow Why Hammerstein-Type Block Models Are so Efficient: Case Study of Financial Econometrics Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan, Afshin Gholamy, Vladik Kreinovich, and Hoang Phuong Nguyen vii

8 viii Why Threshold Models: A Theoretical Explanation Thongchai Dumrongpokaphan, Vladik Kreinovich, and Songsak Sriboonchitta The Inference on the Location Parameters Under Multivariate Skew Normal Settings Ziwei Ma, Ying-Ju Chen, Tonghui Wang, and Wuzhen Peng Blockchains Beyond Bitcoin: Towards Optimal Level of Decentralization in Storing Financial Data Thach Ngoc Nguyen, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, and Hoang Phuong Nguyen Why Quantum (Wave Probability) Models Are a Good Description of Many Non-quantum Complex Systems, and How to Go Beyond Quantum Models Miroslav Svítek, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich, and Thach Ngoc Nguyen Decision Making Under Interval Uncertainty: Beyond Hurwicz Pessimism-Optimism Criterion Tran Anh Tuan, Vladik Kreinovich, and Thach Ngoc Nguyen Comparisons on Measures of Asymmetric Associations Xiaonan Zhu, Tonghui Wang, Xiaoting Zhang, and Liang Wang Fixed-Point Theory Proximal Point Method Involving Hybrid Iteration for Solving Convex Minimization Problem and Common Fixed Point Problem in Non-positive Curvature Metric Spaces Plern Saipara, Kamonrat Sombut, and Nuttapol Pakkaranang New Ciric Type Rational Fuzzy F-Contraction for Common Fixed Points Aqeel Shahzad, Abdullah Shoaib, Konrawut Khammahawong, and Poom Kumam Common Fixed Point Theorems for Weakly Generalized Contractions and Applications on G-metric Spaces Pasakorn Yordsorn, Phumin Sumalai, Piyachat Borisut, Poom Kumam, and Yeol Je Cho A Note on Some Recent Strong Convergence Theorems of Iterative Schemes for Semigroups with Certain Conditions Phumin Sumalai, Ehsan Pourhadi, Khanitin Muangchoo-in, and Poom Kumam

9 ix Fixed Point Theorems of Contractive Mappings in A-cone Metric Spaces over Banach Algebras Isa Yildirim, Wudthichai Onsod, and Poom Kumam Applications The Relationship Among Education Service Quality, University Reputation and Behavioral Intention in Vietnam Bui Huy Khoi, Dang Ngoc Dai, Nguyen Huu Lam, and Nguyen Van Chuong Impact of Leverage on Firm Investment: Evidence from GMM Approach Duong Quynh Nga, Pham Minh Dien, Nguyen Tran Cam Linh, and Nguyen Thi Hong Tuoi Oligopoly Model and Its Applications in International Trade Luu Xuan Khoi, Nguyen Duc Trung, and Luu Xuan Van Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Vietnam: An ARDL Approach Bui Hoang Ngoc The Impact of Anchor Exchange Rate Mechanism in USD for Vietnam Macroeconomic Factors Le Phan Thi Dieu Thao, Le Thi Thuy Hang, and Nguyen Xuan Dung The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Structural Economic in Vietnam Bui Hoang Ngoc and Dang Bac Hai A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) Analysis on the Determinants of Vietnam s Stock Market Le Hoang Phong, Dang Thi Bach Van, and Ho Hoang Gia Bao Explaining and Anticipating Customer Attitude Towards Brand Communication and Customer Loyalty: An Empirical Study in Vietnam s ATM Banking Service Context Dung Phuong Hoang Measuring Misalignment Between East Asian and the United States Through Purchasing Power Parity Cuong K. Q. Tran, An H. Pham, and Loan K. T. Vo Determinants of Net Interest Margins in Vietnam Banking Industry An H. Pham, Cuong K. Q. Tran, and Loan K. T. Vo Economic Integration and Environmental Pollution Nexus in Asean: A PMG Approach Pham Ngoc Thanh, Nguyen Duy Phuong, and Bui Hoang Ngoc

10 x The Threshold Effect of Government s External Debt on Economic Growth in Emerging Countries Yen H. Vu, Nhan T. Nguyen, Trang T. T. Nguyen, and Anh T. L. Pham Value at Risk of the Stock Market in ASEAN Petchaluck Boonyakunakorn, Pathairat Pastpipatkul, and Songsak Sriboonchitta Impacts of Monetary Policy on Inequality: The Case of Vietnam Nhan Thanh Nguyen, Huong Ngoc Vu, and Thu Ha Le Earnings Quality: Does State Ownership Matter? Evidence from Vietnam Tran Minh Tam, Le Quang Minh, Le Thi Khuyen, and Ngo Phu Thanh Does Female Representation on Board Improve Firm Performance? A Case Study of Non-financial Corporations in Vietnam Anh D. Pham and Anh T. P. Hoang Measuring Users Satisfaction with University Library Services Quality: Structural Equation Modeling Approach Pham Dinh Long, Le Nam Hai, and Duong Quynh Nga Analysis of the Factors Affecting Credit Risk of Commercial Banks in Vietnam Hoang Thi Thanh Hang, Vo Kieu Trinh, and Ha Nguyen Tuong Vy Analysis of Monetary Policy Shocks in the New Keynesian Model for Viet Nams Economy: Rational Expectations Approach Nguyen Duc Trung, Le Dinh Hac, and Nguyen Hoang Chung The Use of Fractionally Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average for the Rainfall Forecasting H. P. T. N. Silva, G. S. Dissanayake, and T. S. G. Peiris Detection of Structural Changes Without Using P Values Chon Van Le Measuring Internal Factors Affecting the Competitiveness of Financial Companies: The Research Case in Vietnam Doan Thanh Ha and Dang Truong Thanh Nhan Multi-dimensional Analysis of Perceived Risk on Credit Card Adoption Trinh Hoang Nam and Vuong Duc Hoang Quan Public Services in Agricultural Sector in Hanoi in the Perspective of Local Authority Doan Thi Ta, Thanh Vinh Nguyen, and Hai Huu Do

11 xi Public Investment and Public Services in Agricultural Sector in Hanoi Doan Thi Ta, Hai Huu Do, Ngoc Sy Ho, and Thanh Bao Truong Assessment of the Quality of Growth with Respect to the Efficient Utilization of Material Resources Ngoc Sy Ho, Hai Huu Do, Hai Ngoc Hoang, Huong Van Nguyen, Dung Tien Nguyen, and Tai Tu Pham Is Lending Standard Channel Effective in Transmission Mechanism of Macroprudential Policy? The Case of Vietnam Pham Thi Hoang Anh Impact of the World Oil Price on the Inflation on Vietnam A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach Nguyen Ngoc Thach The Level of Voluntary Information Disclosure in Vietnamese Commercial Banks Tran Quoc Thinh, Ly Hoang Anh, and Pham Phu Quoc Corporate Governance Factors Impact on the Earnings Management Evidence on Listed Companies in Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange Tran Quoc Thinh and Nguyen Ngoc Tan Empirical Study on Banking Service Behavior in Vietnam Ngo Van Tuan and Bui Huy Khoi Empirical Study of Worker s Behavior in Vietnam Ngo Van Tuan and Bui Huy Khoi Empirical Study of Purchasing Intention in Vietnam Bui Huy Khoi and Ngo Van Tuan The Impact of Foreign Reserves Accumulation on Inflation in Vietnam: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach T. K. Phung Nguyen, V. Thuy Nguyen, and T. T. Hang Hoang The Impact of Oil Shocks on Exchange Rates in Southeast Asian Countries - A Markov-Switching Approach Oanh T. K. Tran, Minh T. H. Le, Anh T. P. Hoang, and Dan N. Tran Analysis of Herding Behavior Using Bayesian Quantile Regression Rungrapee Phadkantha, Woraphon Yamaka, and Songsak Sriboonchitta Markov Switching Dynamic Multivariate GARCH Models for Hedging on Foreign Exchange Market Pichayakone Rakpho, Woraphon Yamaka, and Songsak Sriboonchitta

12 xii Bayesian Approach for Mixture Copula Model Sukrit Thongkairat, Woraphon Yamaka, and Songsak Sriboonchitta Modeling the Dependence Among Crude Oil, Stock and Exchange Rate: A Bayesian Smooth Transition Vector Autoregression Payap Tarkhamtham, Woraphon Yamaka, and Songsak Sriboonchitta Effect of FDI on the Economy of Host Country: Case Study of ASEAN and Thailand Nartrudee Sapsaad, Pathairat Pastpipatkul, Woraphon Yamaka, and Songsak Sriboonchitta The Effect of Energy Consumption on Economic Growth in BRICS Countries: Evidence from Panel Quantile Bayesian Regression Wilawan Srichaikul, Woraphon Yamaka, and Songsak Sriboonchitta Analysis of the Global Economic Crisis Using the Cox Proportional Hazards Model Wachirawit Puttachai, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk, and Songsak Sriboonchitta The Seasonal Affective Disorder Cycle on the Vietnam s Stock Market Nguyen Ngoc Thach, Nguyen Van Le, and Nguyen Van Diep Consumers Purchase Intention of Pork Traceability: The Moderator Role of Trust Nguyen Thi Hang Nga and Tran Anh Tuan Income Risk Across Industries in Thailand: A Pseudo-Panel Analysis Natthaphat Kingnetr, Supanika Leurcharusmee, Jirakom Sirisrisakulchai, and Songsak Sriboonchitta Evaluating the Impact of Official Development Assistance (ODA) on Economic Growth in Developing Countries Dang Van Dan and Vu Duc Binh The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Study Dang Van Dan and Vu Duc Binh The Effects of Loan Portfolio Diversification on Vietnamese Banks Return Van Dan Dang and Japan Huynh An Investigation into the Impacts of FDI, Domestic Investment Capital, Human Resources, and Trained Workers on Economic Growth in Vietnam Huong Thi Thanh Tran and Huyen Thanh Hoang

13 xiii The Impact of External Debt to Economic Growth in Viet Nam: Linear and Nonlinear Approaches Lê Phan Thị Diệu Thảo and Nguyễn Xuân Trường The Effects of Macroeconomic Policies on Equity Market Liquidity: Empirical Evidence in Vietnam Dang Thi Quynh Anh and Le Van Hai Factors Affecting to Brand Equity: An Empirical Study in Vietnam Banking Sector Van Thuy Nguyen, Thi Xuan Binh Ngo, and Thi Kim Phung Nguyen Factors Influencing to Accounting Information Quality: A Study of Affecting Level and Difference Between in Perception of Importance and Actual Performance Level in Small Medium Enterprises in Ho Chi Minh City Nguyen Thi Tuong Tam, Nguyen Thi Tuong Vy, and Ho Hanh My Export Price and Local Price Relation in Longan of Thailand: The Bivariate Threshold VECM Model Nachatchapong Kaewsompong, Woraphon Yamaka, and Paravee Maneejuk Impact of the Transmission Channel of the Monetary Policies on the Stock Market Tran Huy Hoang Can Vietnam Move to Inflation Targeting? Nguyen Thi My Hanh Impacts of the Sectoral Transformation on the Economic Growth in Vietnam Nguyen Minh Hai Bayesian Analysis of the Logistic Kink Regression Model Using Metropolis-Hastings Sampling Paravee Maneejuk, Woraphon Yamaka, and Duentemduang Nachaingmai Analyzing Factors Affecting Risk Management of Commercial Banks in Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam Vo Van Ban, Vo Đuc Tam, Nguyen Van Thich, and Tran Duc Thuc The Role of Market Competition in Moderating the Debt-Performance Nexus Under Overinvestment: Evidence in Vietnam Chau Van Thuong, Nguyen Cong Thanh, and Tran Le Khang The Moderation Effect of Debt and Dividend on the Overinvestment-Performance Relationship Nguyen Trong Nghia, Tran Le Khang, and Nguyen Cong Thanh

14 xiv Time-Varying Spillover Effect Among Oil Price and Macroeconomic Variables Worrawat Saijai, Woraphon Yamaka, Paravee Maneejuk, and Songsak Sriboonchitta Exchange Rate Variability and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence from ASEAN Vinh Thi Hong Nguyen The Firm Performance Overinvestment Relationship Under the Government s Regulation Chau Van Thuong, Nguyen Cong Thanh, and Tran Le Khang Author Index