Megatrends towards 2030 DTU Wind

Transcription

1 Megatrends towards 2030 DTU Wind Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d. Futurist Centre for Future Studies

2 Moore than 7 billion people

3 European Population Growth The Silver Tsunami Population Growth

4 The coming workforce of Europe? 190 million under 25 years in the Arab world

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6 India s high-tech centre

7 Globalization 2.0 Outsourcing knowledge work and workers Specialized engineers, researchers, scientists, mathematicians and financial wiz kids Creativity White collar sweat shops: Digital retouch in Dacca Why? cheaper and closer to the markets We have to survive and thrive at the skills and technologies, where we are better that the rest of the world and possesses better market knowledge

8 Kilde:The Economist, sept. 2th, 2014

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10 The world economy will continue to grow

11 Disruptive technology

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13 Globalization 3.0 Industri 4.0 (Davos) Automation, robots and higher efficiency in production lines in We will still manufacture goods in the US and in EU Less and less work costs in the final cost of the goods New technology replacing man power but also assuring industrial jobs and the manufacturing industry in the future Globalized lines of production with critical parts being made in Europa and the US

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16 The digital revolution version 3.0 We are in the middle of a real digital revolution that changes the way we work, produce and communicate in a new digital society Digital structure and software has become a basic part of peoples lives and public and privates companies A essential infrastructure in daily life like water and electricity Your chances of succeeding depends very much on your digital capacity

17 The sun as a source of energy The sun every day distributes the same amount of energy on Earth, that all humanity uses during 27 years at the present level of energy consumption One hours of sun radiation = covers energy consumption a hole year We only use 0,1 % of the suns radiation of energy to Earth We have all the energy we need We just have to pick it up

18 THE PRICE OF OIL

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20 IEA: World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2015

21 But we can meet the challenge just by being more efficient

22 Wind is still a rather tiny fraction IEA: World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2015

23 A renewable future Source: IEA Renewables 2012

24 European questions Supply side were to get the energy we need Cleaning up the former mess better power stations, cleaning emission, better grids etc. CO2 quotas the end of the qouta road? The Americans are better at reducing CO2 emission than the EU The grid and Europe a major improvement needed We have to build the power system of the future and do it well National plans should be aggregated to EU level

25 Modern Danish worklife after the crisis We live in a wealthy part of the world Work is no longer just a question of paying next months rent The crises created a temporary reluctance to ask for great salary increases and benefits But it s over now and demands are growing Modern work life is about personal identity and a meaningful way of living Competing with family, shopping and holidays

26 The flexible labour market Half of all jobs that existed 10 years ago do not exist anymore New jobs have been created replacing that half slower during economic downturns faster growth in boom times Approx. 30% of the workforce changes jobs during a year The labour market is a very flexible market Our children will change jobs more often than us and change directions and industry more than once during their worklive

27 Six Generations Baby Boomers Born Post war generation educational boom Reinventing every phase of life Rock, beat, soul Tech: The pill Generation Y The smallest gen. Fun shoppers, great social skills, Myself inc., situational consumption managing many choices , PC, cell-phone Generation Jones Recently discovered Large generation Design, ethics, idea Against divorce, pro family tech: Stereo set Born Generation Z Between war gen., Project & trophy kids Be famous, groups based Digital natives Born Generation X The so-what generation Small after the pill Selfcenteret, extrovert Personal succes, Video, workaholics, love brands Born New Millenium After 9-11 generation Cultural homogenization EU as native soil Wi Fi (Wireless internet) Født

28 B, X og Y på arbejdspladsen

29 The Young families (Generation Y ) Dad is a caring and loving person and he plays with the kids on the kitchen floor A new kind of family not only mom as the centre Want to do everything on the internet Among Peers love peers and peer review Do not understand texts written by a person over 50 Lounge and chill First video producing generation love selfies Facebook is a place to post your profile not your life

30 Generation Z Socialization: Kindergartens Inhabitant of the internet and internet shopping malls: The digital natives Can t remember a life without a PC and a cell-phone Let s find the best price of a product world wide Without the cell-phone I feel Naked Social networking is a must in life Personal recognition for what I say or do What s in it for me! Personal style over Brands Loves to create their own products, music, way of doing things

31 Future job and future employers! A job that is meaningful to me and my family and friends A fair and just salary still young A flexible workplace A good title English please (Cheese Manager) My work will shape my personality and identity Recognize me, see me and praise me all day long NOT too much work, please! - I also need time for friends, free me time and others interests (sports, shopping, parties and pets.)

32 Born digital

33 The future role of DTU Wind Research will have to show its value to society in the future Denmark, EU, The World? Not enough to be of value to the wind turbine industry - but that is also necessary (who pays your research?) You gotta serve somebody! (Bob Dylan) but who? So somehow you are expected to not only serve the industry and sectoral interest but also to tell the truth What is the cheapest and most reliable source of renewable energy in the future? Do du know for sure? How can you present you doubts?

34 The stone age did not end due to lack of stones The oil age will not end due to lack of oil, but because of superior technologies

35 Jesper Bo Jensen Fremforsk - Centre for Future Studies Balticagade 15, st. th Aarhus C E jbj@fremforsk.dk T M