Way Forward for Europe. Žiga and Jobs Summit, Brussels,

Transcription

1 Way Forward for Europe Žiga and Jobs Summit, Brussels,

2 How about the future of Europe: Let's ask Google 2

3 Let's reinvent the continent oops, sorry, the wrong continent! lets set up a committee or two! Reflection Group Future of Lisbon Strategy 3

4 2007 in the good old times EU expansion, Euro a success Lisbon Treaty on track/signed, institutional matters settled economic upswing, in part attributed to the Lisbon Strategy soft power Europe - leading global climate change agenda Europe to lead the globalization 4

5 The sky was the limit Mark Leonhard: "we will see the emergence of a New European Century. Not because Europe will run the world as an empire, but because the European way of doing things will have become the worlds". Jeremy Rifkin: "Much of the world is going dark, leaving many human beings without clear direction. The European Dream is a beacon of light in the troubled world." long term visions: a proposal for a group of wise men to think about the future of Europe economic, social and environmental strategy: Lisbon strategy 3.0 5

6 Reflection Group to identify the key issues and developments which the Union was likely to face and to analyze how these might be addressed. strengthening and modernizing the European model of economic success and social responsibility, enhancing the competitiveness of the EU, the rule of law, sustainable development as a fundamental objective of the European Union, global stability, migration, energy and climate protection, and the fight against global insecurity, international crime and terrorism. particular attention should be given to ways of better reaching out to citizens and addressing their expectations and needs. headed by former Spanish PM Felipe Gonzales 6

7 Lisbon Strategy The European Council (March 2008) stresses that a continued EU-level commitment to structural reforms and sustainable development and social cohesion will be necessary after 2010 in order to lock in the progress achieved by the renewed Lisbon Strategy for growth and jobs. The European Council therefore invites the Commission, the Council and the National Lisbon coordinators to start reflecting on the future of the Lisbon strategy in the post-2010 period. 7

8 2009 Crises institutional crisis treaty stuck in Ireland climate crisis somehow forgotten, "temperatures flat since 2001, but warming will return" financial, then economic crisis, possible spillover to political crisis 8

9 The triggers and deeper reasons triggers many living over their means, lack of information in the financial market, regulation that did not compensate for that, risk aversion and distribution, market distortions, poor decisions made in the financial sector deeper reasons 9

10 21th century structural shifts / undercurrents shifting of center of gravity of global economy after 500 years re-emergence of China as #1 economy conceptual economy "almost all of the real-value-added increases in our output reflect the embodiment of ideas" peak oil and possible 3 rd industrial revolution 100 years since the 2nd (oil) other scientific progress biotech, medicine, genetics, nanotechnology 10

11 Perfect storm structural shifts + crisis = instability, discontinuity, future "not like the past but better" any more destructive questioning the proven patterns of the past (capitalism, markets, democracy, greed ) without offering workable alternatives looking for silver bullets and utopian regressions: government control, protectionism, redistribution of wealth 11

12 Threats and opportunities of the storm threats not good for Europe common market is the bedrock of European integration not good for business at all! not good for doing long term strategies opportunities government interventions are acceptable, even desirable weaknesses are exposed there is motive for reform 12

13 Responses tactical response: addressing the symptoms with stimuli, bailouts, confidence building, cheap oil sooner or later they would get traction strategic response: addressing the structural shifts, the weaknesses exposed by crisis Asia, automation, abundance 13

14 The crisis of abundance economy can stand still, because we can live without new stuff for a year or more fewer and fewer workers needed to make the stuff we need luddites: the end of work communists: Give money to the poor that will spend it environmentalists: Spend money to save the planet snobs: Sell meaning, brand, content, design not function 14

15 Crisis is deep we will have to do a little bit of everything conceptual economy intellectual property rights or another pattern of innovation "Should the law have protected Newton's and Leibniz's claims in the same way that we do those of owners of land?" talent, human resources innovation, creativity culture, values 15

16 Conceptual economy, culture, values are a legacy of Europe 16

17 and Conceptual Economy is Europe's Game the future is bright 17

18 In conclusion the crisis is deep and serious, but this too will pass there are plenty of challenges, big picture issues, stuff that matters (care for the people, care for the nature) short term action must not play against long term structural shifts build on what has been good and what has worked to create enormous prosperity, a long period of growth and peace an EU reform strategy is welcome - Brussels can push for the right thing not for the popular thing create mechanisms that turn good ideas into action 18

19 On a rough sea you must keep an eye on the horizon because the sky is the limit 19