Climate Change Demands Behavioral Change: What are the challenges?

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Harry Maxwell
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1 Climate Change Demands Behavioral Change: What are the challenges? Elke U. Weber Columbia University Loyola University 2 nd Annual Climate Change Conference March 20, 2015

2 Fifth Assessment Report (FAR) New York Times Editorial, April 1, 2014: Perhaps now the deniers will cease their attacks on the science of climate change, and the American public will, at last, fully accept that global warming is a danger now and an even graver threat to future generations.

from personal experience Use associations, emotions,

3 Homo sapiens Not primarily a creature of rational deliberation Instead, a creature of habit Learn best from personal experience Use associations, emotions, and rules/habits to guide actions Many goals, often conflicting

4 Climate Change as the perfect storm Inaction is the behavioral default Status-quo bias Vested interests in status-quo Merchants of doubt (Effective) action is complicated Collective action required Uncertainties at scientific, technology, political, and social level Wishful thinking (and misperception or underestimation of CC risks) as an understandable response

cooperation No silver bullet, only silver buckshot Cost of action

5 Climate Change, a tough nut to crack Risk is abstract, statistical, in the future Solution requires sustained attention on many fronts and cooperation No silver bullet, only silver buckshot Cost of action upfront, certain, and aversive Benefits of action in the future, uncertain, and disputed

6 Status-quo bias Fundamental challenge! Not true that if you build it, they will come NIMBY for grid transmission lines in Germany

7 Status-quo bias and lack of imagination

8 What to do? Solutions can be found in the diagnosis Why is there status-quo bias? Typically, safety in the known Not the case for climate change!!! Argument for scaring people into action?

9 The Day After Tomorrow

10 What to do? Solutions can be found in the diagnosis Why is there status-bias? Typically, safety in the known Not the case for climate change!!! Argument for scaring people into action? NO! Not hard-wired to worry about environmental risks Climate change not dreaded like Ebola or terrorism Risk seeking in domain of losses Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) Politicians and people are willing to take their chances with climate change rather than locking in sure-loss scenarios

11 Turn challenges to advantages E.g., make green electricity the default option in letters to customers Tested by two utilities in Southern Germany Great results not just at the time but a year later

12 Communication Guides cred.columbia.edu/guide connectingonclimate.org

13 All hands on deck Public Individual action (e.g., energy use), purchase power, and political will CEOs, Corporate Board members Companies (Re)insurance, shipping, renewable energy, utilities B2B purchasing Architects/Infrastructure Designers Infrastructure decisions lock in future energy use patterns Politicians Falling down on the job! Need to expect public opposition to change

14 Two Bold Policies 2002 New York City smoking ban Banned smoking in all public buildings in NYC, including bars 2008 British Columbia carbon tax Revenue neutral tax on greenhouse gas emissions Media Analysis Treuer, Weber, Appelt, Goll, Crookes (2014)

17 All hands on deck (Social) scientists Economists are falling down on the job, almost no work on sustainable growth models Need to rethink global climate treaty negotiation approaches Need new models and metrics of human happiness and well-being Playwrights, Directors We need alternative visions of the future, utopias, not (just) dystopias

19 All hands on deck (Social) scientists Economists are falling down on the job, almost no work on sustainable growth models Need to rethink global climate treaty negotiation approaches Need new models and metrics of human happiness and well-being Playwrights, Directors We need alternative visions of the future, utopias, not (just) dystopias

20 Inaction is not an option Change will come, with our without us! Action on all fronts remember the silver buckshot analogy Provide lists of effective actions Focus on the positive consequences of change Use our long and successful past on planet Earth to motivate investment in the future Imagine a new future!

IPCC Working Group 3

IPCC Working Group 3 Thoughts and reflections for potential authors Tony Patt Professor of Climate Policy, ETH Zürich (formerly senior scientist at IIASA, Laxenburg NÖ) 1 Review Editor Chapter on Adaptation