RAHS: A Systematic Process of Foresight

Transcription

1 RAHS: A Systematic Process of Foresight Chew Lock Pin Director Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) Programme Office National Security Coordination Secretariat Prime Minister s Office Singapore

2 Emerging National Security Threats OPENSOURCE BIOTECH OS WEAPONS BIOTECH GARAGE BioBricks 3D Printing THE DEEP WEB Composable Proteins CAD Designs New Open Source Movements, New Hacks, New Crimes

3 Cognitive Security and Safety Old picture that started a fight Fake AP Tweet about White House Bombing that created a flash crash in the Stock Market

4 Dangerous Beliefs Slender-man murder: Teenagers killed for a fictitious character. Online Radicalisation: Foreign fighters at ISIS.

5 See, Attend, Act An Experiment on methodologies dealing with COGNITIVE BIAS Gary Klein Dave Snowden

6 See, Attend, Act Scenario is designed to surprise: lead participants down the Garden Path; Apply tools that break Cognitive Bias; See : Participants successfully detected the weak signals and were spot-on about the real scenario; But the majority chose to remain in the status quo;

7 Line-up of Ideas and Facts leading up to 9/ : World Trade Centre attacked by Truck Bombs 1995: Air France Algerian Terrorist Group attempted to crash plane onto Eiffel Tower 2000: Al Qaeda attack on USS Cole. Jul 2001: FBI agent reported Terrorist training in flight schools in Arizona. 1998: Terrorism experts gave FAA two scenarios. One is about plane crashing into WTC. Sep 2001: NSA intercepted comms about a terrorist plot from 8 to 10 Sep 2001.

8 Better Anticipation Not Prediction

9 RAHS Programme VISION Leading Centre of Expertise in Strategic Anticipation for National Security MISSION Enhance policymaking capabilities through engaging analyses, robust processes, and leading-edge systems Horizon scanning, research and analysis Agency engagement, process development, concepts exploration Experimentation, RAHS system maintenance

10 See Act Attend

11 Resource Security Emerging Technologies Liveable Cities and Competitiveness Economic and Financial (In)Stability Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING Unconventional Weapons Bio-Med Developments Energy Security New Media Cyber Security Social Change Transport Security Geopolitical Developments Terrorism

12 12

13 Keeping people aware; Obtain Feedback by crowdsourcing;

14 Sensemaking WORD CLOUD ANALYSIS Scan to Trend Process and Application Geographical Analysis CONTENT ANALYSIS TEMPORAL ANALYSIS DDOS attack on China 29 Jun Jul 13 SEC activity on.. 20 Aug 13 DDOS attack on NYT, Melbourn IT 27 Aug 13 Orange denote Syrian Elect Army Exploits Green denotes Anonymous exploits Time

15 Selecting an Issue Is the Issue Relevant to Singapore? What is its impact? Which agency should take note? Is it plausible? Is it Likely to happen?

16 Developing Future Scenarios FUTURE SCENARIOS 3 rd Horizon Vision 2 nd Horizon Getting There GROWTH SUSTAINABILITY SECURITY TECH Social Economic Technology Politics Environment Security 1 st Horizon Today s Realities Issues to Indicators Process

17 Energy Security Futures Study DRIVERS

18 Morphological Analysis A multivariate approach to generate plausible scenarios Scenario #1 A Green Future Scenario #2 A Vibrant Energy Market Scenario #3 No Light at the End of the Tunnel

19 Scenario Exercise and Policy Gaming Role-Play Stress Testing of Policies Reveal strengths and weakness of Policies Scenarios to Strategies Process

20 Act Needs a Sponsor and a Decision Making Platform

21 NSCS Organisation Structure A short distance to the top is useful

22 Learning to Operate in the Complex and the Complicated Sensemake by creating multiple perspectives Coalesce perspectives into Scenarios/ Patterns Experiment and Probe. Unknowable Turbulent and Unconnected Knowable Known Model the Environment Map the System Plan Contingencies The Cynefin Model (Analysis) Dave Snowden, Cognitive Edge

23 Overcome Organizational Structures / Stovepipes

24 TRENDS FUTURES Medical 3 rd Horizon Space ISSUES LAW IMPLICATIONS Security 2 rd Horizon Industry & Manufacturing

25 Decision Making Platform for Foresight National Security Structure Security Policy Review Committee Chaired by DPM/CMNS Directs strategic planning & policy formulation, examines critical issues & threats, approves strategic capability development, reviews prevailing measures and oversees WOG coordination and cooperation National Security Coordinating Committee Chaired by PS (NSIC) Supports & executes SPRC decisions, guides capability development, oversees IMCs Intelligence Coordinating Committee Chaired by PS (NSIC) Deliberates on developments in terrorism and national security related issues and gives direction for strategic analysis and follow-up action Sea lanes of Communication Aviation Critical Infrastructure Maritime Public Transport Infocomm Security* Supply Chain Security Sensitive Materials MINDEF-MHA Collaboration Food Security Inter-Ministerial Committees

26 COLLABORATIVE FORESIGHT Collaborate with local government agencies Use Wikistrat online simulation platform Crowdsourcing Approach Studying the topic of Eurasian Resource and Economic Trajectories 4 Master Narratives 21 days 136 Scenarios 170 Participants Online PROJECT WIKISENSE

27 Working with Students The Future of National Service in Singapore

28 PARTNERSHIPS Local and Foreign A collaboration with the Atlantic Council s Strategic Foresight Initiative on the topic of Technology and Society The project studies the emergence of key fundamental technologies on the horizon and examining their impact on society Others:

29 Foresight Competencies Critical Thinking (Developing Insights) Knowledge of Futures Methodologies, Tools and Processes Common Project Management Info Gathering & Distilling Creative Communications Domain Knowledge Engaging & Partnering Consulting Networking Develop New Methods Job Specific Training and Facilitation Policy Thinking

30 RAHS: A Systematic Process of Foresight Chew Lock Pin Director, RAHS Programme Office Chew_Lock_Pin@nscs.gov.sg