The Accessible Arctic

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1 The Accessible Arctic As the Arctic loses its sea ice cover, it becomes ever more accessible, bringing both opportunities and potential conflicts between stakeholders

2 I. Globalization, Climate Change & Governance Implications for a New Maritime Arctic DNV Workshop on Ice Scenarios DNV ~ Sandvika 9-10 December 2008 Lawson W. Brigham, PhD Vice Chair, PAME & Chair, AMSA U.S. Arctic Research Commission ~ Anchorage

3 Major Topics Arctic marine geography & sea Ice commercial arctic marine use Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) of the Arctic Council Future scenarios & wild card issues Major challenges ~ Arctic states

4 Arctic Marine Geography CHALLENGES & RISKS Northwest Passage Draft Sea Ice Choke Point Central Arctic Ocean Route (2100 nm) Sea Ice Draft Northern Sea Route Intra-Arctic Route Cold Climate Ice-Free Ops MULTIPLE ROUTES & MODES

5 Today s Arctic Marine Use

6 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore

7 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore

8 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Key Fisheries Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

9 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Key Fisheries Oil & Gas Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

10 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Key Fisheries Oil & Gas Summer Sealift Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

11 Today s Arctic Marine Use Hard Minerals Marine Tourism Key Fisheries Oil & Gas Summer Sealift Exploration/Science Zinc & Coal Nickel & Copper High Grade Iron Ore??

12 The Maritime Arctic of Today Snapshot of Summer 2004 Traffic ~ 5475 Ships High Intensity Fishing Red Dog Mine ~23 Modes of Arctic Marine Transport -Destinational & Regional -Trans-Arctic -Trans-Arctic with Transshipment -Intra-Arctic 107 Voyages 5 NWP Transits 6 Research Ships 8 NP 3-Ship Drilling 0 NSR Transits 165 Voyages 52 Ships Noril sk Complex 27 Cruise Ships (53~2005) (150~2006) (200+ ~ 2007) High Intensity Fishing Hundreds of Transits

13 Icebreaker Transits to the North Pole & Trans-Arctic Voyages ( ): 77 Transits to the North Pole (65 Russia, 5 Sweden, 3 USA, 2 Germany, 1 Canada, 1 Norway) Single Non-summer NP Voyage (Sibir Voyage May-June 1987) 33 Ship Transits to the NP in Trans-Arctic Voyages (1991, 1994, 1996, 2005) Clear Evidence of Central Arctic Ocean Navigation 25 May 1987 ~ North Pole Soviet Nuclear Icebreaker Sibir A Walk Around the World!

14 Scenarios Effort ~ Key AMSA Uncertainties Stable legal climate Radical change in global trade dynamics Climate change is more disruptive sooner Safety of other routes Socio-economic impact of global weather changes Oil prices (55-60 to USD?) Major Arctic shipping disasters** Limited windows of operation (economics) New Ice Age ~ Atlantic Changes Maritime insurance industry China and Japan become Arctic maritime nations Transit fees Conflict between indigenous & commercial use Arctic enforcers (police force) Escalation of Arctic maritime disputes Shift to nuclear energy New resource discovery World trade patterns Catastrophic loss of Suez or Panama Canals Global agreements on construction rules and standards.

15 Stricken cruise ship off Antarctic evacuated MSNBC- 11/23/07

16 Arctic Rush High demand and unstable governance set the stage for an economic rush for Arctic wealth and resources. unstable & ad-hoc Polar Lows Low demand and unstable governance bring a murky and under-developed future for the Arctic. AMSA/GBN Scenarios Workshops ~ April & July 2007 The Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050 Scenarios on the Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in 2050 more demand RESOURCES & TRADE GOVERNANCE Arctic Saga High demand and stable governance lead to a healthy rate of development, includes concern for preservation of Arctic ecosystems & cultures. stable & rules-based Polar Preserve Low demand & stable governance slow development in the region while introducing an extensive eco-preserve with stringent no-shipping zones. less demand

17 Wild Card Issue 1 ~ Multiple Ocean Use Management & Enforcement Bowhead Whale Migrations & Arctic Marine Operations Fall Spring Summer 22 April 2002 Arctic Ocean Choke Point Winter Possible Arctic Shipping Routes

18 Wild Card Issue 2 ~ Arctic Ship Emissions & Uncertain Regulation New northern passages could significantly boost levels of low-lying ozone as ship exhausts pump pollutants into the pristine environment. Emissions of nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide from ships could triple ozone levels, making them comparable to those in industrialized regions today. New Scientist 22 July 2006

19 Wild Card Issue 3 ~ Technology Future Convoy Requirements? Icebreaking (Double Acting) Container Ship Norilskiy Nickel in the Kara Sea March 2006

20 Aker Arctic Technology

21 Aker Arctic Technology

22 Today s Maritime Arctic (200 NM Exclusive Economic Zone) Hypothetical - Future Maritime Arctic (After UNCLOS Article 76) (Macnab 2000) (Macnab 2000) The ILULISSAT Declaration Conference of 5 Coastal States Bordering on the Arctic Ocean (Canada, Denmark & Greenland, Norway, Russia, USA) May 2008 ~ Ilulissat, Greenland LOS/UNCLOS Provides Solid Foundation We therefore see no need to develop a new comprehensive international legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean. Wild Card Issue 4 ~ Continuing Challenge

23 U.S. Geological Survey Report ~ July 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle 13% Undiscovered Oil 30% Undiscovered Natural Gas 20% Undiscovered Natural Gas Liquids Wild Card Issue 5A ~ New Resource Discoveries

24 Probability of Presence of Undiscovered Oil and/or Gas Fields USGS (2008) Wild Card Issue 5B ~ New Resource Discoveries

25 Major Challenges ~ Arctic States 1 - Uncertain International Regulations & Standards 2 - Policy Responses Required with Rapid Arctic Natural Resource Development 3 - Lack of Adequate Maritime Infrastructure & Environmental Monitoring 4 - Concerns ~ Levels of Arctic Maritime Training 5 - Risks ~ Year-to-Year Sea-Ice Variability & Winter Ice Navigation Across 2100 nm 6 - Complexity of Potential Environmental Impacts ~ Noise, Ship Emissions, Discharges 7 - Protecting the Central Arctic Ocean (PSSA?) 8 - Tracking & Surveillance of Arctic Marine Activity CERTAINTY ~ Need for Greater Maritime Cooperation of the Arctic States ~ Engagement with the Global Maritime Industry

26 The Maritime Arctic of the Future? Fishing? Summer 2025? NWP? Summer 2040? Tourism? Summer 2030? ++ Tourism Fishing 2007 to Improving Coastal Access

27 The Three Pillars of AMSA Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety Protecting Arctic People and the Environment Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure

28 Arctic Oil and Gas Resources DNV Workshop: Scenarios for the Arctic Steven Sawhill 9 December 2008

29 AMAP 2007 Discovered resources of the Arctic

30 Distribution of known resources AMAP 2007

31

32 USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Quantitative appraisal of undiscovered resources North of the Arctic Circle With 10% chance of an oil or gas deposit 50 MMBOE Completed Summer 2008 Appraisal Source: USGS Fact Sheet

33 USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Undiscovered oil 90 BBO Assessment Source: USGS Fact Sheet

34 USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Undiscovered oil More than 70% thought to occur in 5 provinces Assessment 7 BBO 9 BBO 7 BBO 10 BBO 30 BBO Source: USGS Fact Sheet

35 USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Assessment Undiscovered gas 1670 TCFG Source: USGS Fact Sheet

36 USGS Circum-Arctic Resource Undiscovered gas More than 70% thought to occur in 3 provinces 651 TCFG Assessment 318 TCFG 221 TCFG Source: USGS Fact Sheet

37 Future prospects for development

38 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004

39 Photo 2008 Aker Arctic Technology. Used with permission. All rights reserved.

40 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ US Energy Information Agency 2008

41 Conclusions The Arctic holds significant amounts of oil & gas Estimates of undiscovered oil & gas are increasing Climate change and new technologies are improving access Volatile energy prices will affect incentive to develop Arctic oil & gas The Arctic is a politically stable energy source region, but politics constrain access to many areas Source: USGS Fact Sheet

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