The future of research on safety and security in Germany - Results from an explorative Delphi study

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1 Dr. Lars Gerhold Freie Universität Berlin, Research Forum on Public Safety and Security 1

2 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Research Program for civil security (Federal Ministry of Education and Research) 123 Mio Program lines: 1. Scenario-based security research; e.g. Protection of transport and electricity infrastructure; rescue and protection of people 2. Technology Networks; e.g. Detection of hazardous substances; Protection systems for security and emergency services 3. Social dimensions of security research; e.g. Prevention of school shootings; Research forum on public safety [unintentional risks] and security [intentional threats] Dr. Lars Gerhold 2

3 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Research Forum on Public Safety and Security Public Safety and Security: Providing for the safety and protection of all the people living in the human-rights compliant social organisation of the Federal Republic of Germany (Reichenbach et al. 2008, p. 15) Main objectives: Synthesis and assessment of available knowledge resources and existing initiatives Scientific analysis of national und international developments Identifying research topics with relevance for future developments Communication and cooperation 3

4 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Steering comittee Scientific Board Support Coordination and research office is located at Research Needs Organisations e.g. German Bundestag, Federal Ministry of education and research etc. Research Forum on Public Safety and Security Freie Universität Berlin 4

5 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND OVERALL METHODOLOGICAL CONCEPT 15 Scientists, N Politicians Semi-structured expert interviews Exploration study Politicians Scientists Scenarioprocess 1st round: Online Poll 2nd round: Discussion Delphistudy Actors Society 02/ / / / /2012 t 5

6 INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND Research objectives: Use an explorative access on structuring safety and security as field of research Get to know more about the research field from the point of view of German research on safety and security experts Research Questions: Which are the requirements, risks and dangers of the future from an interdisciplinary perspective of the security research in Germany (to the year 2030)? In which problem areas are special needs for research and to whom are these needs explicitly addressed? 6

7 MATERIAL AND METHODS Methodological Design: Two-round Delphi study Qualitative concept (no multiple choice) Descriptive Panel of experts Experts: Return rate 53%: 27 of 51 invited participants Level of competence: min. relatively high Experience: Ø = 15 years Disciplines: Natural sciences, technology, social sciences/humanities/cultural sciences, law 7

8 RESULTS Result categories I Safety- and security-relevant developments of the next 20 years II Research topics of the next 20 years III Challenges for the future of research on safety and security in Germany Dr. Lars Gerhold 8

9 RESULTS Identified Safety- and Security-Relevant Developments of the next 20 Years There is no single important safety and security topic of the future 9

10 RESULTS Important Research Topics during the next 20 Years There is no singular research on safety and security research. 10

11 RESULTS Challenges for the Future of Research on Safety and Security in Germany Research on safety and security needs also to be designed as research on uncertainty. Future research on safety and security needs to be intensely inter- and transdisciplinary to meet the requirements of complex problem situations. 11

12 RESULTS THESES There is no single important safety and security topic of the future There is no singular research on safety and security research. Research on safety and security needs also to be designed as research on uncertainty. Future research on safety and security needs to be intensely inter- and transdisciplinary to meet the requirements of complex problem situations. 12

13 RESULTS Questions for further research Which conditions need to be met for successfully combining different disciplinary approaches for the research on safety and security and how can the disciplines learn from each other? How does an exchange between politics, science, economy and society have to be organised for successful results? How does the different understanding of terms influence the scientific discourse and the discourse between science, politics and public? Which methods and which combinations of methods will lead to the result in which contexts and for which research questions? 13

14 Thank you for your attention! 14

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