Controllable Generation UCAP determination. Eligibility WG September 12, 2017

Transcription

1 Controllable Generation UCAP determination Eligibility WG September 12, 2017

2 Purpose and objective The objectives of this presentation include: Recap the installed capacity (ICAP) and unforced capacity (UCAP) definitions Understand the data requirements for UCAP Compare GADs and AESO data Request feedback from workgroup 1

3 Recall from July 4 th meeting UCAP Calculation for a Thermal Resource Example: Gas Combined Cycle with a nameplate capacity of 500 MW Seasonal Net Dependable (ICAP) accounts for the impact of ambient weather conditions (Summer) on unit performance Unforced Capacity (UCAP) is the ICAP value of the unit reduced by its recent actual forced outage rate during system demand periods (EFORd) Generator will able to offer 396 UCAP MW into the capacity auction Nameplate capacity rating = 500 MW Nameplate capacity modified for seasonal ambient limitations (ICAP). Example: If ambient temprature reduction is 10 % of the nameplate capacity. Ex. ICAP = 500 MW * 90% = 450 MW UCAP= ICAP * (1-EFORd) Forced outage rate = 12% UCAP = ICAP * (1- forced outage rate) Ex. If UCAP = 450 MW * (1-0.12) = 396 MW Public 2

4 UCAP calculation and data requirements UCAP= ICAP x (1- EFORd) where Equivalent Demand Forced Outage Rate (EFORd) is a measure of probability that a generating unit will not be available due to forced outages or forced derates when there is a demand on the unit to generate* The EFORd calculation relies on reliability data that comes from the Generation Availability Data System (GADS). GADs data are collected by NERC and provide information about the performance and outages / derates of generating units** The UCAP calculation may have different data requirements for uncontrollable and controllable generation AESO does not have GADS data *PJM Capacity Market/ PJM Manual 18/PJM Capacity Market Operations ** 3

5 UCAP Calculation: ETS data deficiencies Information needed for calculating UCAP based on EFORd Duration of Forced outages, Planned Outages, Forced Derates and Planned Derates Service Hours (The period of time that the unit was generating electricity) Reserve Shutdown ( the period that the unit was available, but not dispatched) Number of Actual Starts and Attempted Unit Starts Do we have this information? NO Yes Yes NO Comments ETS gives the option to the participants to leave out the event type in their submissions within a 7 day period before the event. In the case that they do not submit this field, it would be automatically populated using a logic that does not allow participants to clearly distinguish between forced and planned events. Therefore the event field would not be useful in determining the type of the outages and derates. This could be extracted from the metered volumes. When the unit is available (AC 0) but generation is zero. The data are not available. Based on the data currently available, calculation of UCAP based on EFORd methodology will be time consuming and complex. This methodology needs information similar to what GADs provide. However, this method could be used in the future if the GADS data become available. 4

6 Conceptual differences between AC and UCAP Maximum Capability = 200 MW PJM Ambient temp and humidity adjustment Alberta Ambient temp and humidity adjustment Maximum Capability = 200 MW ICAP = 170 MW 30 MW Forced outages/derates 30 MW 30 MW Forced outages/derates 30 MW PJM based UCAP for thermal generator = 140 MW Planned Outages/derates Planned Outages/derates ACf: is 140MWs UCAP is ICAP adjusted for performance through GADS data In other jurisdictions This example is for illustrative purposes only 40 MW + Available 100 MW 40 MW Available Capacity (AC in ETS) 100 MW AC = 100 MW AESO AC data does not separate between ambient, forced or planned outages. AC accounts for all lost generation UCAP: ICAP after capacity reduction due to forced outages and derates AESO ACf: ICAP after capacity reduction due to implied forced outages and implied derates AESO AC: ICAP after capacity reduction due to forced outages and derates and planned outages 5

7 Questions for the workgroup discussion Which option should be used for the interim UCAP calculation? A NERC mandate for 20MW and greater generators: do Alberta generators follow this requirement and have GADS data? Is the quality robust enough for use for UCAP Calculation? Are categorization practices comparable for all generation owners? Approach for generators less than 20MWs? If In the event ETS data is used, should AESO prioritize classifying outages earlier for the purpose of calculating more accurate UCAP on time for delivery during the transition period? Should the AESO investigate GADS further? Use GADS, AC or ACf for UCAP calculations? What demand hours should be used? 6

8 Thank you

9 Appendix B AC and AC f Overview Option 1: Use Available Capability as UCAP For existing resources this option uses historically submitted AC Variable resource may use capacity factors New resources and technologies may use class averages either from historical available capabilities or from sources outside the AESO for units with no historical data Seasons and demand hours will need to be defined Option 2: Use Available Capability that only includes forced outages/derates but excludes planned outages (AC F ) For existing resources this option uses historical AC submissions AC f may be calculated using a derate factor that only takes into account hours with forced outages and derates Forced outages are any outages/derates submitted within 7 days. Any submissions before 7 days are assumed to be planned Variable resource may use capacity factors New resources and technologies may use class averages either from historical available capabilities or from sources outside the AESO for units with no historical data Seasons and demand hours will need to be defined 8

10 Appendix B AC and AC f Advantages Option 1: Use Available Capability as UCAP Simple to understand and implement Availability of historical data Provides a conservative estimate of a plant s true capability as it includes planned and forced outages. Historical performance can be measured Option 2: Use Available Capability that only includes forced outages/derates but excludes planned outages (AC F ) This approach is closer in nature to way UCAP is calculated in North American capacity markets using GADs data Transition to GADS may be smoother as the difference in UCAP and ACF volumes may be lower Rules and compliance procedures in place to evaluate quality of AC submissions 9

11 Appendix B AC and AC f Disadvantages Option 1: Use Available Capability as UCAP Determining true availability of a unit will require additional work as some units may show full AC but not be dispatchable i.e. Long lead time, Mothball, peaking units, etc. AC data and rules were designed to meet the needs of an energy-only market and were not intended to fulfill the requirements of the UCAP calculation Option 2: Use Available Capability that only includes forced outages/derates but excludes planned outages (AC F ) More complex to implement as it requires parsing the data into planned and forced outages, which requires assumptions AC F will still be based on AC submissions, which were designed to meet the needs of an energy-only market and were not intended to fulfill the requirements of the UCAP calculation Methodology requires defining an approach to account for the impact of ambient weather conditions Method is still under investigation. AESO needs to further examine AC submission data to assess feasibility 10

12 Appendix B AC and AC f Example This example is only for illustrative purpose It intends to show the expected differences in magnitude between AC and AC f It uses a dummy generator with a maximum capability equal to 452 MW The same data set was used to calculate the AC and AC f values For the purpose of this example, the summer season comprised months from May to October and the winter season covered the months from November to April The actual months and HEs to be used in the UCAP methodology are yet to be decided 11

13 Appendix B AC and AC f Terminology Forced Outage Hours - FOH Sum of all hours experienced during Forced Outages. Forced outages are any outages submitted within 7 days. Equivalent Forced Derated Hours EFDH Forced derates are any derates submitted within 7 days. Each individual Forced Derating is transformed into equivalent full outage hour(s). This is calculated by multiplying the actual duration of the derating (hours) by the size of the reduction (MW) and dividing by the Maximum Capacity (MC). These equivalent hour(s) are then summed. (Derating Hours x Size of Reduction*)/ MC NOTE: Includes Forced Deratings during Reserve Shutdowns (RS). Service Hours SH Sum of all Unit Service Hours Equivalent Forced Derated Hours During Reserve Shutdowns EFDHRS Each individual Forced Derating or the portion of any Forced derating which occurred during a Reserve Shutdown (RS) is transformed into equivalent full outage hour(s). This is calculated by multiplying the actual duration of the derating (hours) by the size of the reduction (MW) and dividing by the Maximum Capacity (MC). These equivalent hour(s) are then summed. (Derating Hours x Size of Reduction*)/ MC 12

14 Appendix B AC and AC f Example Option 1: Use Available Capability as UCAP Option 2: Use Available Capability that only includes forced outages/derates but excludes planned outages (AC F ) AB1 Avg AC Median AC Max AC Min AC Summer Winter AC f = MC (1 Derate Factor) Derate Factor = FOH + EFDH FOH + SH + EFDHRS 100% AB1 Derate Factor AC f Summer 2.67% 440 Winter 4.25%