Innovation Ecosystem for Emerging Ubiquitous Societies

Transcription

1 Ver /5/16 Innovation Ecosystem for Emerging Ubiquitous Societies 27th May, 2008 Dr. Botaro Hirosaki Senior Executive Vice President NEC Corporation

2 1. Moore s Law and the bounds of Shannon's theorem 2. Ubiquitous Network Societies 3. Innovation Ecosystem 4. Towards Ubiquitous Societies 2

3 Model for Information Communication The shortage of resources, such as bandwidth and memory/processing, comes into view as audio visual media becomes a main stream application. Moore s Law Processing Capability Storage Volume Processing Storage Shannon s theorem Information Source Transmission Receiver Compression Communication Capacity 3

4 Gap in transmission of Information Capacity (Volume) Increasing Telecommunication Volume GAP Min Speed vs Down load time Music(CD,60min.) TV Program(45min.) Movie(DVD,120min.) Telecommunication 10 Capacity offered 0 Year Shannon's theorem : C=W log 2 (1+S/N) Shannon's Theorem gives an upper bound to the capacity of a link, in bits per second (bps), as a function of the available bandwidth and the signal-to-noise ratio of the link. Frequency spectrum is a finite resource! MHz 4

5 GAP in Processing of Information Processing capacity requested Processing (Transaction) Mobile Internet (i-mode) Traffic Page View / day Million Page View/Day 3000 Total PV/day No. of i-mode User 2500 Million Users GAP 2000 Flat Rate for i-mode 200 Moore s s Law Processing Capability G Commercial Service Double every 18 months Moore s s Law : 年 0 '02/03 Number of transistor in IC counts doubling every 18 months Computer s processing ability may not be enough to cope with increasing volume of information. '03/03 '04/03 '05/03 '06/03 '07/03 '08/03 0 Source: NTT DoCoMo 5

6 1. Moore s Law and the bounds of Shannon's theorem 2. Ubiquitous Network Societies 3. Innovation Ecosystem 4. Towards Ubiquitous Societies 6

7 Paradigm Shift in the ICT Fields Paradigm Shift in IT and Network are synchronized. IT NW 1980 s 1990 s 2000 s 2010 s Personal Computer MS-DOS Centralized Control Main Frame Digitalization ISDN ATM/B-ISDN Centralized Control Digital SW (TD, Computer Control) Telephony Service WWW Windows95 IP/Distributed Control Client Server System Open System Down Sizing IP Internet Service Web Computing IP Distributed Control Internet Digital Mobile Service 2G Main Frame (Virtualization) Grid Computing P2P IP Telephony Broadband (ADSL, FTTH) 3G WEB2.0 Thin Client BB Virtualized System Digital Broadcasting LTE Ubiquitous Societies NGN 7

8 Power Shift from Organization to Individual "Power Shift" that Alvin Toffler advocated has actually become it. The age when knowledge has value comes, and power moves from the organization to the individual. SNS Users in Japan Change of business model Million based on prosumer s 12 Normal SNS Users perspective 10 Active SNS Users Ratio for Internet Users % Change in consumer behavior with Web2.0 Web2.0 Blog SNS The rise of mash-up service Increasing collaborative business e-commerce Direct marketing B2C net business led by consumers '05/03 '06/03 '07/ Source: MIC 8

9 The World Is Flat! Penetration of Broadband Service Power Shift Network Effect 9 Thomas L. Friedman : The social system of the world was transformed. The World Is Flat. Collaboration with community From anywhere in the world, with various method, with whoever, Collaboration, Competition, and Corporation become possible. Ubiquitous Societies is a reality.

10 Paradigm Shift in Network Services Ubiquitous service due to implicit knowledge achieve flat world. Communication Connection Service (Collecting Status information for human and any things) User Profile Location Presence Ubiquitous Service Flat World Without being conscious of time, location and other circumstances, one s desire and will to communicate can be achieved. Information Internet Services (Sharing Knowledge) Web2.0 SNS, Blog U-tube Community 10

11 C&C [ Integration of Computers and Communications ] Since1977 Computers & Communications Proposal of social needs for communications might be to talk and see between any persons, at any time, at any place on the earth, in the early days of the next century. Assuming that this comes true, all technology, communications, computer and television will be, and should be, integrated for such needs at such time. Koji Kobayashi, former Chairman of NEC Corporation speech at International Telecommunication Exposition (INTELCOM), 1977 In 1977, NEC predicted that the ubiquitous society will become reality in the 21 century. 11

12 Communication with realistic sensations 3D virtual experiences Ubiquitous Society Personal Agent Life assistance, Healthcare Sharing Information Space Provide information for TPO Assistance for Safety Driving Assistance Ubiquitous Society Traceability Supply Chain Management RFID Whenever Wherever Whoever Whatever Office Home FMC Digital Divide Information appliance 12

13 1. Moore s Law and the bounds of Shannon's theorem 2. Ubiquitous Network Societies 3. Innovation Ecosystem 4. Towards Ubiquitous Societies 13

14 How do you fill the gap of Transmission? How is it done? and is capacity of the communication for each band secured? (1) Transmission Capacity (Speed) per a bandwidth (2) Number of subscribers accommodated per a bandwidth (3) Number of subscribers accommodated per a frequency Info. Source (1) (1) (2) (1) Source Coding MPEG2 H264 Digital Modula tion QAM OFDM Multiple Access CDMA OFDMA Antenna Tech. MIMO (3) Cell Design Pico Cell SDMA Compression Multilevel Transmission Spectrum Space Division Multiplexing Communi cation Channel output Info. Source Decoding Digital Demodula tion Multiple Access Antenna Tech. 14

15 Innovation for Video Coding The progress of the video compression technology cannot catch up with Shannon's theorem. Video Size HDTV SDTV Streaming Mobile 10 k H.265 H.263 H.264/AVC 100 k 1 M Compression Ratio 1/100 MPEG-4 H.261 MPEG-2 MPEG-1 10 M 2010? times/10years M Bit/s H.264 standard applied Blu-ray Disc Digital Broadcasting AVCHD SBTVD-T Flash Video Hardware ipod Apple TV SONY PSP Software QuickTime Flash Player 15

16 Innovation for Wireless Technologies Wireless broadband (~100Mbps) becomes equivalent to the wire-line level, and homogeneous network will be achieved. 1999/2 First mobile internet service : 28.8 Kbps 250 times /10years bit / s 100M 10M 1M 100K 2008/4 HSDPA : 7.2 Mbps Penetration of Wireless Access a g G WLAN WCDMA 3G CDMA2000 1X EV-DO Rev.0 WiMAX HSDPA EV-DO Rev.A 3.5G n e HSPA LTE 4G Year 16

17 MIMO-OFDM Technologies The major technology to break down the limit of Shannon's Law is MIMO antenna and OFDM modulation technology. W-LAN WiMAX LTE (Digital Broadcast) Two technologies that enable speed-up within the same bandwidth WiMAX M-Taiwan Trial MIMO OFDM h 11 h 12 s 1 y 1 User data.. s 2.. s M.. Channel Matrix H y 2 y M.. User data s Transmitted vector y Received vector Speed-up by space multiplexing (bundling of data stream) Improvement of use efficiency of frequency Taipei Hualien 17

18 Penetration of Peak Rate and Spectrum Efficiency Spectrum efficiency (bps/hz) on mobile is only 5times/10years; need to take some measures! 18 Peak rate [bps] 1G 100M 10M 1M 0.1M Peak rate Spectrum efficiency Adaptive Modulation and Coding (AMC) Time domain scheduling 5MHz BW CDMA W-CDMA (2001) 20MHz BW 2x2 MIMO OFDM HSDPA (2006) LTE (2009) 4G (2013?) 100Mhz BW 4x4 MIMO Beam forming Intercell cooperation Spectrum efficiency [bps/ Hz]

19 Radio Optimization and Cell Design The design of the radio cells to maximize utilization of available frequency is the key for the expansion of communication capacity. 3D BS Optimization Technology Introduction of Pico cell SDMA by beam forming technology Network Management Server Real-time simulation RS-3000 NEOMAT Cell Design Optimization Mash-up Interactive Network Design Platform Real time simulation Interactive designing Database of K/H SDMA: Space Division Multiple Access Operation Log Field customer complaint Data 3-dimensional map 19

20 Software Defined Radio A high connectivity is secured by switching the radio technology that is available. (Cognitib wireless technology) WLAN WiMAX LTE Digital Broadcasting Programmable Array Processor Developing Programmable Processor for next generation radio communication Adopting programmable array accumulator Realizing MIMO-OFDM efficiently (FFT, array processing) High Speed, Small Size, Low power Selecting suitable radio source It is possible to correspond to all wireless technologies flexibly only by rewriting software with one portable terminal. 20

21 Traffic Offload from Wireless The answer for the rack of frequency bandwidth would be offload. A fixed and a wireless network must be used properly. Mobility Wireless Service Small Volume Information Gear for Life Mobile TV RFID Transaction Game High Speed Down Load Nodal Service Telephony Service Video Mail TV Phone Web Service Wire Line Service Large Volume Information Entertainment Game IPTV HDTV conference HD VoD High Speed Down Load 10 kbps 100 kbps 1 Mbps 10 Mbps 100 Mbps 1Gbps Communication speed 21

22 Innovation for IP Optical Transmission One big factor in realizing the flat world is large capacity long haul transport The first commercial optical transmission system in the world 45Mb/s, 9km Capacity: 35,000 Times Distance: 1,300 Times Cost/bit/km: 1/100, Gilders Law (twice by 6 month) TDM 400M 1.6G 2.4G 10Gx160 WDM 40Gx273 40Gx160 10G 40G 10Gx32 2.5Gx16 40G 100Gx G? 100G Commercial System ??? year 10T 1T 100G 10G 1G 100M Total Capacity (bit/s) Latest system 40Gb/s 40waves 560km (Terrestrial System) 10Gb/s 96waves 12,000km (Sub-marine cable system) 22

23 Silicon Photonics Ultra compact and low power optical devices by combining silicon nano-fabrication process and nano-photonics technologies 50 μm Size : 1/ mm AWG using Planar Light wave Circuit (SiO2) AWG using Si wire waveguides One-chip R-OADM *AWG : Arrayed Waveguide Grating Compact (1/100 level) Low Power Low Cost Adopting tunable filter and optical switch Current Network Equipment *R-OADM : Reconfigurable Optical Add/Drop Multiplexer Future Network Equipment 23

24 Paradigm Shift in ICT Infrastructure 08/07 Due to the decrease of the price-per-bit of the transport network, the network must evolve to ICT infrastructure including terminal, data warehouse, applications. Data Center ECO CENTER Middleware: SaaS, S, SoA Ubiquitous Network Free Scale Network supporting RFID to Video Granularity Distributed Client TARO SUZUKI Home Entertainment Thin Client Office Mobile Game IC cards, RFID Camera 24 KIOSK

25 Innovation for Computing Performance A upper bound of Moore's law in silicon semiconductor? Further processing performance enhancement is indispensable! MIPS CPU Performance CPU Performance 100 times/10years according to Moore s Law Multi-core 22nm 32nm 45nm Limit of Scaling - Leak Current - Element Mismatch - Power Consumption Nano Technology Carbon Nano Tube Transistor? Performance would cover with server system architecture

26 Carbon Nanotube Technology Can the Carbon nanotubes technology break Moore's Law? Dr. Sumio Iijima Honors, Awards: 2007 Balzan Prize for Nanoscience and Others Discovered by Dr.Iijima at NEC in 1991 Tubular material with nm-scaled diameter formed by graphite sheets One of attractive applications is printed transistor Printed CNT Transistor 26

27 Parallel Stream Architecture Parallel processing architecture extending performance High Transaction Cost Real-time, but high txn cost Low txn cost, but not real-time Batch OLTP PSA Real-time & Low cost Software Product Parallel Stream Monitor Table Access Method Real-time High PSA makes 10 4 ~10 5 txns/sec possible. OLTP: On Line Transaction Processing 27

28 Grid Computing Architecture Virtual and distributed architecture, grid computing architecture also solves performance issue. Servers Site A Grid Storage Architecture Site B Servers Servers Site C Large Scale Storage Disaster Recovery Function Next Generation Grid Storage 28

29 1. Moore s Law and the bounds of Shannon's theorem 2. Ubiquitous Network Societies 3. Innovation Ecosystem 4. Towards Ubiquitous Societies 29

30 Challenge for the New Frontier Ultra high Speed, Ultra Small Size, Low Power Technology Virtualization, Distribution Architecture Nanotechnology Photonics Radio Resource Management Software Radio Innovation Ecosystem Green ICT Ecology Sustainable Development Grid Computing New Generation NW Virtual Technology Cognitive Network Management 30

31 Towards Ubiquitous Societies Sustainable Ubiquitous Societies through Innovation Ecosystem Quality of Life / Economic Value Computer (IT) Man and C&C Consumers Innovation Ecosystem Enterprises Sustainable Ubiquitous Societies Public Agencies Communication (Network) 31

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