The Maize Forum. 6 October Nico Hawkins General Manager
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1 The Maize Forum 6 October 2017 Nico Hawkins General Manager
2 White Maize
3 White Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) White Maize SAGIS NAMC May - Apr Actual 2016/17 '000t Projection 2017/18 '000t Opening stocks Producer Deliveries Imports Total use (Local) (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (b) (a) Including producer w ithdraw als and end-users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS - 27 Sep '17, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '17, GMR: 29 Sep '17 International (GMR) Sep - Aug Estimate Projection 2016/ /18 Mt Mt Not available Not available
4 White Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Ton WHITE MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Yield 7.0 S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj. 0.0
5 White Maize: Weekly producer deliveries Production season (1 May until 29 Sep 17)
6 White Maize: Raw material: Imports & Exports Ton WHITE MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
7 White Maize: Exports Raw material Major Destinations (2017/18 Progr. 1 May 29 Sep 17) Nambia 2.9% Mozambique 4.7% Uganda 5.4% Lesotho 8.4% White Maize Exports 1 May - 29 Sep '17 Swaziland 3.4% Zimbabwe 2.2% Kenya 53.1% Botswana 20.0% Progr. Total: ton
8 White Maize: Consumption Ton WHITE MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
9 White Maize: Stocks Ton WHITE MAIZE: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
10 White Maize: 17/18 Marketing Year Supply & Demand Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 17 Ton White Maize: Current Season 1 May - 31 Aug S&DEC Prod Del S&DEC Imports S&DEC Processed S&DEC Exports Excl Early Deliveries CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) 0 Imports Processed Exports
11 White Maize: Milled for product exports Ton WHITE MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
12 Yellow Maize
13 Yellow Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) Yellow Maize SAGIS NAMC May - Apr Actual Projection 2016/ /18 '000t '000t International (GMR) Sep - Aug Estimate Projection 2016/ /18 Mt Mt Opening stocks Producer Deliveries Imports Total use (Local) (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (b) (a) Including producer w ithdraw als and end-users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS - 27 Sep '17, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '17, GMR: 29 Sep '17
14 Yellow Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Ton YELLOW MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES Yield CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj. 0.00
15 Yellow Maize: Weekly producer deliveries Production season (1 May until 29 Sep 17)
16 Yellow Maize: Raw Material: Imports & Exports (2017/18 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 17) Ton YELLOW MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
17 Yellow Maize: Exports Raw material Major destinations (2017/18 Progr. 1 May 29 Sep 17) Yellow Maize Exports Thaiwan 25.4% Mozambique 1.0% 1 May - 29 Sep '17 Botswana 1.0% Namibia 2.1% Korea Rep 12.7% Mozambique 11.2% Japan 54.1% Progr. Total: ton
18 Yellow Maize: Consumption Ton YELLOW MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
19 Yellow Maize: Stocks Ton YELLOW MAIZE: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
20 Yellow Maize: 17/18 Marketing Year Supply & Demand (2017/18 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 17) Ton Yellow Maize: Current Season 1 May - 31 Aug S&DEC Prod Del 0 S&DEC Imports S&DEC Processed S&DEC Exports Exluding Early Deliveries CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) Imports Processed Exports
21 Yellow Maize Exports : Milled for product Exports Ton YELLOW MAIZE: MILLED FOR PRODUCT EXPORTS African Countries Other Countries /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug
22 Total Maize
23 Total Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) Total Maize SAGIS NAMC May - Apr International (GMR) Sep - Aug Actual 2016/17 Projection 2017/18 Estimate 2016/17 Projection 2017/18 '000t '000t Mt Mt Opening stocks Producer Deliveries Imports Total use (Local) (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (b) (a) Including producer w ithdraw als and end-users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS - 27 Sep '17, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '17, GMR: 29 Sep '17
24 Total Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries Ton TOTAL MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATES, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Yield 7.0 S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj. 0.0
25 Total Maize: Imports & Exports: Raw material Ton TOTAL MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Total Imports Exports S&DEC 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
26 Total Maize: Consumption Ton TOTAL MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
27 Total Maize: Stocks Ton TOTAL MAIZE: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug 17/18 Proj.
28 Total Maize: 17/18 Marketing Year Supply & Demand (2017/18 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 17) Ton Total Maize: Current Season 1 May - 31 Aug S&DEC Prod Del 0 S&DEC Imports S&DEC Processed S&DEC Exports Exl Early Deliveries CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod del) Total Imports Processed Exports
29 Total Maize Exports: Milled for product exports Ton TOTAL MAIZE: Milled for product exports African Countries Other Countries /08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Progr. May-Aug
30 Price Movements
31 FOB: Maize World Price US$/ton 400 Maize World Prices - US NO3 YELLOW GULF (FOB)
32 Price Movements: Comparison SAFEX 2017/09/ /08/ /09/26 Price % Month Price % Year Price R/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton Future prices for Dec 2017 Yellow Maize White Maize Future prices for Mar 2018 Yellow Maize White Maize Source: SAFEX
33 Price Movements: Comparison CBOT 2017/09/ /08/ /09/26 Price % Month Price % Year Price $/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton US NO 3 Yellow Maize December ' March ' Source: CBOT
34 Indicative import parity prices 2017/09/26 USA Gulf (no.3y) Argentine Up River Oct 17 Okt 17 International FOB prices Freight Rates Insurance (0.3% of FOB) COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) $/t Converted to R/t R/$ Exchange rate on: 2017/09/ R/t R/t 2 COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) R/t Financing cost COST, INSURANCE, FREIGHT AND FINANCING R Discharging cost: - Cape Tow n Durban Import Tariff FREE ON RAIL (FOR) R/t - Cape Tow n Durban Railage cost - Durban to Randfontein DELIVERED - Durban to Randfontein R/t SAFEX Randfontein $/t $/t
35 Indicative export parity prices US No3Y 2017/09/28 Maize/ Mielies Gulf/Golf (b) Oct '17 FOB Gulf value ($/t) Difference in quality and locality of SA Maize: Plus US$10 ($/t) Groundnuts: Less 3,5% of fob value SA fob price ($/t) Exchange rate (1$=): (2017/09/26) FOB Gulf value (R/t) Marketing costs: Financing (Prime rate 10.50% - 30 days) (R/t) Railage: Randfontein Durban harbour Loading costs: (R/t) Durban Harbour (Mainly spout method) EXPORT REALISATION: (R/t) Durban Harbour SAFEX Randfontein price Source: IGC
36 SARS FOB Prices: Imports Previous years: May April 2017/18: Progr. May July Maize Other Maize Kernels 2015/ /17 Progr. 2017/18 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
37 SARS FOB Prices: Exports Previous years: May April 2017/18: Progr. May July Maize Other Maize Kernels 2015/ /17 Progr. 2017/18 Exports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
38 Imports: SARS FOB Prices (2017/18 Progr. May July 2017) Imports Tariff line Maize - Other Tariff line Maize - Dried Kernels Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Argentina Botswana Brazil India Kenya Lesotho Namibia Nigeria Swaziland Unknown Zimbabwe Total Progr. May - Jul '17 Source: SARS
39 Exports: SARS FOB Prices (2017/18 Progr. May Jul 2017) Exports Tariff line Maize - Other including: Tariff line Maize - Dried Kernels Country Ton FOB value Rand R'000 per ton Angola Australia Bahrain Botswana Cameroon China Congo Congo Dem Rep Of Coto D Ivoire Denmark Ethiopia France Georgia Ghana India Japan Ireland Kenya Korea, Rep Of Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Mauritius Mozambique Country Ton FOB value Rand R'000 per ton Myanmar Namibia Nigeria Rwanda Russian Federation Saint Helena Senegal Singapore Sri Lanka Swaziland Taiwan, Prov of China Tanzania Thailand Togo Uganda United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Unknown Zambia Total Progr. May - Jul '17 Source: SARS
40 Transport Component
41 Transport component Maize MAIZE:TRANSPORT BY COMPONENT % 90 Conveyor Belt Freight rail Road Transport
42 Transport component Maize and Wheat % 90 MAIZE AND WHEAT:TRANSPORT BY COMPONENT Conveyor Belt Freight rail Road Transport
43 Maize Products
44 Maize Products Manufactured per month Progr. May Aug 17 (4months) MAIZE PRODUCTS White products Aug '17 Manufactured Manufactured Manufactured Yellow Total White Yellow Total White Yellow products Maize products products Maize products products Ton Progr. May - Aug '17 % of Total Manufactured Total Maize Maize Chop Maize Rice * 0.3 Maize Grits * 6.5 Samp * 2.6 Sifted Maize Meal Special Maize Meal Super Maize Meal Unsifted Maize Meal Other maize products intended for Human consumption Total Ton Ton Whole maize milled Diff milled and products % Chop
45 Maize Products Imported per month Progr. May Aug 17 (4 months) White Maize August 2017 Progr. May - Aug '17 Imported Ton Ton Ton Yellow Maize Total Maize White Maize Imported Yellow Maize Total Maize White Maize % of Total Imported Yellow Maize Total Maize Maize Chop Maize Rice Maize Grits Samp Sifted Maize Meal Special Maize Meal Super Maize Meal Unsifted Maize Meal Other maize products intended for Human consumption Total * Included total for yellow rice, grits and samp
46 Maize Products Exported per month Progr. May Aug 17 (4 months) White Maize Ton Ton Ton Yellow Maize Total Maize White Maize Yellow Maize Total Maize White Maize Yellow Maize Total Maize Maize Chop Maize Rice Maize Grits Samp Sifted Maize Meal Special Maize Meal Super Maize Meal Unsifted Maize Meal Other maize products intended for Human consumption Aug 2017 Progr. May - Aug '17 Exported Exported % of Total Exported Total
47 White Maize Products Progr. Aug 16 Jul 17 (12 months) White Maize Meal Products (Aug '16 - Jul '17) Special % Sifted % Super % Unsifted % Other % Total Human Consumption:
48 Yellow Maize Products Progr. Aug 16 Aug 17 (12 months) Yellow Maize Meal Products (Aug '16 - Jul '17) Sifted % Other % Rice/Grits/Samp % Total Human Consumption:
49 Maize Products: Consumption Progr. Sep 16 Aug 17 (12 months) Per capita consumption Maize products Wheat products 12 months (1 Aug '16-31 Jul '17) Manufactured Imports Exports Total "consumed" Total population Per capita consumption (Kg)
50 Maize products: Year on year price changes 2017 % Year 2016 % Year 2015 Price on Price on Price R Year R Year R Special Maize 2.5kg Maize Super 5kg *White Maize Safex * Average spot price Source: SA Statistics & JSE Safex August
51 Maize Products: Prices PRICES MAIZE PRODUCTS (Special Maize) Mealie meal/maize flour 1 Kg (Special Maize) Mealie meal/maize flour 2,5 Kg Super Maize 1 Kg Super Maize 2.5 Kg Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17
52 Maize Products: Index MAIZE PRODUCTS INDEX % % (Special Maize) Mealie meal/maize flour 1 Kg (Special Maize) Mealie meal/maize flour 2.5 Kg Super Maize 1 Kg Super Maize 2.5 Kg SAFEX Spot price White Maize Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17
53 Maize General
54 Co-workers : Whole Grain Maize Whole grain firms registered End consumers 32 7% Storers 35 7% Traders 65 13% Harbour silo owners 17 3% Processors % Total firms: 499
55 Co-workers : Products Maize Products firms registered Products: Import / Export 3 2% Milling Industry % Total firms: 180
56 Board of Directors The Maize Industry is represented by: Chairperson Dr JL Purchase Director Ms N Mahlathi Alternate Director Mr BC Schoonwinkel
57 Gratitude The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil our commitments: The Maize Trust The Maize Forum Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff
58 Note: This presentation will be available on SAGIS website under SAGIS information, Presentations Thank you
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