The Maize Forum. 17 October Nico Hawkins General Manager
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1 The Maize Forum 17 October 2016 Nico Hawkins General Manager
2 White Maize
3 White Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) White Maize SAGIS Actual 2015/16 May - Apr NAMC Projection 2016/17 '000t '000t Opening stocks Producer Deliveries Imports Total use (Local) (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (b) International (USDA) Estimate 2015/16 Mt Not available Sep - Aug Projection 2016/17 Mt Not available (a) Including producer w ithdraw als end users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS - 29 Sep '16, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '16, GMR: 29 Sep '16
4 White Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton WHITE MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES Yield 6.0 CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj. 0.0
5 White Maize: Crop estimates vs. Weekly producer deliveries Marketing season (1 March until 12 October 2016) White Maize 2010/ / / / / /16 AVE 2016/17 CEC Final Estimate Early deliveries (Mar & Apr) Deliveries from 1 May - 12 Oct Total deliveries % Delivered from final crop On farm retentions CEC for Commercial market % Delivered for commercial market
6 White Maize: Weekly producer deliveries Production season
7 White Maize: Imports & Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Raw material Ton WHITE MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
8 White Maize: Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 7 Oct 16) Raw material Major destinations White Maize Exports Zimbabwe 20.1% 1 May - 7 Oct '16 Other 6.9% Swaziland 10.5% Botswana 30.2% Namibia 10.5% Lesotho 21.7% Progr. Total: ton
9 White Maize: Imports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 7 Oct 16) Raw material Major destinations Imports: White Maize 2016/17 Mexico % United States % Total: ton
10 White Maize: Consumption (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton WHITE MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
11 White Maize: Stocks (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton WHITE MAIZE: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
12 White Maize: 16/17 Marketing Year Supply & Demand (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16)
13 White Maize: Milled for product exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16)
14 Yellow Maize
15 Yellow Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) Supply and Demand (RSA vs International) Yellow Maize SAGIS May - Apr NAMC International (USDA) Sep - Aug Actual 2015/16 Projection 2016/17 Estimate 2015/16 Projection 2016/17 '000t '000t Mt Mt Opening stocks Producer Deliveries Imports Total use (Local) (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (b) (a) Including producer w ithdraw als end users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS - 29 Sep '16, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '16, GMR: 29 Sep '16
16 Yellow Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton YELLOW MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATE, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES Yield CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj. 0.00
17 Yellow Maize: Crop estimates vs. Weekly producer deliveries Production season (1 March until 12 October 16) Yellow Maize 2010/ / / / / /16 AVE 2016/17 CEC Final Estimate Early deliveries (Mar & Apr) Deliveries from 1 May - 12 Oct Total deliveries % Delivered from final crop On farm retentions CEC for Commercial market % Delivered for commercial market
18 Yellow Maize: Weekly producer deliveries Production season (1 March until 12 October 16)
19 Yellow Maize: Imports & Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Raw material Ton YELLOW MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC 0 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
20 Yellow Maize: Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 7 Oct 16) Raw material Major destinations Swaziland 23.6% Yellow Maize Exports 1 May - 7 Oct '16 Other 8.9% Botswana 28.4% Lesotho 7.8% Zimbabwe 20.2% Mozambique 11.2% Progr. Total: ton
21 Yellow Maize: Imports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 7 Oct 16) Raw material Major destinations Imports: Yellow Maize Brazil % 2016/17 Argentina % Progr. Total: ton
22 Yellow Maize: Consumption (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton YELLOW MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
23 Yellow Maize: Stocks (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton YELLOW MAIZE: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
24 Supply & Demand Yellow Maize: 16/17 Marketing Year (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16)
25 Yellow Maize Exports : Milled for product Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16)
26 Total Maize
27 Total Maize: Supply & Demand (National vs. International) (Marketing season) Total Maize SAGIS NAMC International (GMR) May - Apr Sep - Aug Actual 2015/16 Projection 2016/17 Estimate 2015/16 Projection 2016/17 '000t '000t Mt Mt Opening stocks Producer Deliveries Imports Total use (Local) (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (b) (a) Including producer w ithdraw als end users (b) All stocks, regardless ow nership thereof, in commercial structures Sources: SAGIS - 29 Sep '16, NAMC: S&DEC - 3 Oct '16, GMR: 29 Sep '16
28 Total Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates vs. SAGIS Deliveries (Marketing season) (1 March until 12 October 16) Delivery Estimate versus CEC Estimate 2016/17 marketing year White Yellow Total Early deliveries (Mar & Apr) (tons) Deliveries (May-Feb) (tons) Total deliveries (tons) CEC production estimate (tons) Deliveries as % of CEC estimate (%) 96.3% 89.6% 92.5% White Yellow Total SAGIS deliveries up to date (tons) Difference (NOK min SAGIS) On farm consumption (tons) Expected deliveries after on farm consumption Outstanding on CEC after adjustment (tons) Remaining weeks for delivery Delivery tempo needed to obtain CEC estimate Deliveries as % of CEC estimate - retentions (%)
29 Total Maize: Weekly producer deliveries Production season: (1 March until 12 October 16)
30 Total Maize: Production & Producer Deliveries CEC Estimates, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton TOTAL MAIZE: CEC ESTIMATES, YIELD, HA & SAGIS DELIVERIES Yield CEC (Crop Est.) SAGIS (Prod del) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj. 0.0
31 Total Maize: Imports & Exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Raw material Ton TOTAL MAIZE: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Total Imports Exports S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
32 Total Maize: Consumption (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton TOTAL MAIZE: RSA CONSUMPTION Human Animal/industrial S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
33 Total Maize: Stocks (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16) Ton TOTAL MAIZE: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
34 Total Maize: 16/17 Marketing Year Supply & Demand (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16)
35 Total Maize Exports: Milled for product exports (2016/17 Progr. 1 May 31 Aug 16)
36 Price Movements
37 FOB: Maize World Price US$/ton 400 Maize World Prices - US NO3 YELLOW GULF (FOB)
38 Price Movements: Comparison SAFEX 2016/10/ /09/ /10/05 Price % Month Price % Year Price R/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton Future prices for Dec 2016 Yellow Maize White Maize Future prices for Mar 2017 Yellow Maize White Maize Source: SAFEX
39 Price Movements: Comparison CBOT 2016/10/ /09/ /10/05 Price % Month Price % Year Price $/Ton on Month R/Ton on Year R/Ton US NO 3 Yellow Maize December ' March ' Source: CBOT
40 Indicative import parity prices USA Gulf (no.3y) Argentine Up River Oct 16 Oct 16 International FOB prices Freight Rates Insurance (0.3% of FOB) COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) $/t Converted to R/t R/$ Exchange rate on: 2016/10/ R/t R/t 2 COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) R/t Financing cost COST, INSURANCE, FREIGHT AND FINANCING Discharging cost: - Cape Tow n Durban Import Tariff FREE ON RAIL (FOR) R/t - Cape Tow n Durban Railage cost - Durban to Randfontein DELIVERED 2016/10/04 - Durban to Randfontein R/t SAFEX Randfontein Source: IGC $/t $/t
41 Indicative export parity prices 2016/10/04 USA Gulf (no.3y) Argentine Up River Oct 16 Oct 16 International FOB prices Freight Rates Insurance (0.3% of FOB) COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) $/t Converted to R/t R/$ Exchange rate on: 2016/10/ R/t R/t 2 COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT (CIF) R/t Financing cost COST, INSURANCE, FREIGHT AND FINANCING R Discharging cost: - Cape Tow n Durban Import Tariff FREE ON RAIL (FOR) R/t - Cape Tow n Durban Railage cost - Durban to Randfontein DELIVERED - Durban to Randfontein R/t SAFEX Randfontein Source: IGC $/t $/t
42 SARS FOB Prices: Imports Previous years: May April 2016/17: Progr. May July Maize Other Maize Kernels 2014/ / /17 May-Jul Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
43 SARS FOB Prices: Exports Previous years: May April 2016/17: Progr. May July Maize Other Maize Kernels 2014/ / /17 May-Jul Exports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS
44 Imports: SARS FOB Prices (Progr. May July 2016) Imports Tariff line Maize - Other Tariff line Maize - Dried Kernels Country Ton FOB value R'000 Rand/ton Argentina Belgium Brazil Botswana France Hungary Lesotho Mexico Swaziland United Arab Emirates United States Unknown Zambia Total Progr. May - Jul '16 Source: SARS
45 Exports: SARS FOB Prices (Progr. May Jul 2016) Exports Tariff line Maize - Other including: Tariff line Maize - Dried Kernels Country Ton FOB value Rand R'000 per ton Angola Australia Botswana China Congo Dem Rep Of Coto D Ivoire France Gabon Georgia Germany Ghana India Iraq Japan Kenya Kuwait Lesotho Madagascar Malawi Country Ton FOB value Rand R'000 per ton Malaysia Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Russian Federation Saint Helena Seychelles Singapore Sri Lanka Swaziland Taiwan, Prof of China Tanzania Thailand Togo Uganda United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Unknown Zambia Zimbabwe Total Progr. May - Jul '16 Source: SARS
46 Transport Component
47 Transport component Maize MAIZE:TRANSPORT BY COMPONENT % 90 Conveyor Belt Freight rail Road Transport
48 Transport component Maize and Wheat % 90 MAIZE AND WHEAT:TRANSPORT BY COMPONENT Conveyor Belt Freight rail Road Transport
49 Maize Products
50 Maize Products manufactured per month Aug '16 Progr. Sep '15 - Aug '16 % of Total Manufactured MAIZE PRODUCTS White Yellow Total White Yellow Total White Yellow Total products products Maize products products Maize products products Maize Ton Ton Ton Maize Chop Maize Rice Maize Grits Samp Sifted Maize Meal Special Maize Meal Super Maize Meal Unsifted Maize Meal Other Maize Products that are intended for human Total Whole maize milled Diff milled and products % Chop
51 Maize Products Imported per month Progr. Sep 15 Aug 16 (12 months) Aug 2016 Progressive: Sep '15 - Aug '16 % of Total Imported Imported Imported Ton Ton Ton White Maize Yellow Maize Total Maize White Maize Yellow Maize Total Maize White Maize Yellow Maize Total Maize Maize Chop Maize Rice Maize Grits Samp Sifted Maize Meal Special Maize Meal Super Maize Meal Unsifted Maize Meal Other Maize Products that are intended for human consumption Total
52 Maize Products Exported per month Progr. Sep 15 Aug 16 (12 months) White Maize Aug 2016 Progressive: Sep '15 - Aug '16 % of Total Exported Exported Exported Ton Ton Ton Yellow Total White Yellow Total White Yellow Total Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Maize Chop Maize Rice Maize Grits Samp Sifted Maize Meal Special Maize Meal Super Maize Meal Unsifted Maize Meal Other Maize Products that are intended for human consumption Total
53 White Maize Products Progr. Sep 15 Aug 16 (12 months) White Maize Meal Products (Sep '15 - Aug '16) Special % Sifted % Super % Unsifted % Other % Total Human Consumption:
54 Yellow Maize Products Progr. Sep 15 Aug 16 (12 months) Yellow Maize Meal Products (Sep '15 - Aug '16) Maize Grits % Sifted % Other % Maize Rice % Maize Chop % Total Human Consumption:
55 Maize Products: Consumption Progr. Sep 15 Aug 16 (12 months) Per capita consumption Maize products Wheat products 12 months (1 Sep '15-31 Aug '16) Manufactured Imports Exports Total "consumed" Total population Per capita consumption (Kg)
56 Maize products: Year on year price changes 2016 % Year 2015 % Year 2014 Price on Price on Price R Year R Year R Special Maize 2.5kg Maize Super 5kg *White Maize Safex * Average spot price Source: SA Statistics & JSE Safex August
57 Maize Products: Prices PRICES MAIZE PRODUCTS (Special Maize) Mealie meal/maize flour 1 Kg (Special Maize) Mealie meal/maize flour 2,5 Kg Super Maize 1 Kg Super Maize 2.5 Kg Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16
58 Maize Products: Index MAIZE PRODUCTS INDEX % % (Special Maize) Mealie meal/maize flour 1 Kg (Special Maize) Mealie meal/maize flour 2.5 Kg Super Maize 1 Kg Super Maize 2.5 Kg SAFEX Spot price White Maize Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16
59 Maize General
60 Co-workers Maize: Firms registered with SAGIS End consumers 31 6% Storers 35 7% Traders 62 13% Harbour silo owners 18 4% Processors % Total firms: 490
61 Board of Directors The Maize Industry is represented by: Chairperson Dr JL Purchase Director Ms N Mahlathi Alternate Director Mr JF de Villiers
62 Gratitude The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil our commitments: The Maize Trust The Maize Forum Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff
63 Note: This presentation will be available on SAGIS website under SAGIS information, Presentations Thank you
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