Does what you export matter? In search of empirical guidance for industrial policies

Transcription

1 Does what you export matter? In search of empirical guidance for industrial policies Based on a Regional Study by D. Lederman and W.F. Maloney (World Bank)

2 Why producing a good may have benefits not fully captured by the price mechanism? Marshallian externalities: Productivity rises with the size of the industry Local industry level knowledge spillovers, inputoutput linkages, and labor pooling, for instance Rents: Increasing returns to scale, other barriers to entry Intervention warranted to shift to good with externalities/rents against price signals

3 Empirical Concerns for Policy Makers 1. Doesn t the whole world see the same benefit and drive the price down? Traditional comparative advantage still critical for cluster promotion Exploiting ME where country has comparative advantage (as opposed to starting from scratch) Caveats: inter-industry ME and assymetries 2. Agglomeration does not necessarily lead by itself to Marshallian externalities: Example: export processing zones where dense networks of firms/input suppliers have not developed

4 Empirical Concerns for Policy Makers 3. Do externalities necessarily come with a good, or does it matter how we produce it? For any given good: large cross-country heterogeneity: In innovation (e.g. as measured by patents) Quality (e.g. unit values) Tasks (stages of the production process)

5 Practically measurement of MEs is difficult, so take shortcuts High productivity goods Rich Country Goods (Rodrik, Hausmann) High-tech goods with high inter-industry ME Natural resources Often thought to be low productivity and generating few externalities Additional issue of rent seeking

6 HIGH PRODUCTIVITY GOODS

7 Does It Matter What We Export? Hausmann, Hwang, Rodrik (2007) Model based broadly on inter-industry spillover Country should produce the highest productivity good within its CA Market failure associated with discovery Empirics: PRODY: trade-weighted average of income of countries exporting a given good EXPY: export-weighted average of PRODY, measures sophistication of a country s export basket Find higher EXPY correlated with higher growth.

8 Caveats GE critique also applies Rents higher where rich countries already are? Not generally the case- Nokia and TVs in the 1980s If easy to move into these goods, then barriers to entry/rents low Empirical findings muddy Animals, electrical machinery have same PRODY Transport costs, protection, existence of entrepôts (e.g. Singapore) also affect what rich countries export Finding of an impact on growth is fragile: e.g. not robust to control for investment, export concentration

9 CURSED GOODS: NATURAL RESOURCES

10 There is lots of heterogeneity in experiences with NR Log GDP per capita United S Switzerl Hong Kon Japan Germany France United K Italy Austria Israel Spain Cyprus Greece Korea, R Poland Mauritiu Hungary Turkey Jordan Panama Tunisia Fiji Morocco Egypt, A El Sri Salva Lank Philippi Pakistan Banglade Senegal Cape Ver India Benin Gambia, Mozambiq Guinea-B Leamer Measure: Net Exports of NR/Worker Burkina Sudan Mali China Canada Sweden Norway Denmark Finland Australi Iceland Netherla New Zeal Ireland Mexico Venezuel Malaysia Syrian A Uruguay Argentin Brazil Iran, Chile Is Gabon Thailand Costa Ri Colombia South Af Algeria Ecuador Jamaica Congo, Guatemal D DominicaParaguay Peru Indonesi Bolivia Nicaragu Honduras Cameroon Papua Cote d'i Ne Zimbabwe Kenya Nigeria Sierra L Ghana Guyana Rwanda Guinea Mauritan Togo Madagasc Zambia Comoros Burundi Uganda Malawi Chad 6 Maloney 2007 Resource Scarce Resource Abundant Log Natural Resources (Leamer)

11 Empirically, there is no resource curse In growth regressions: Minerals are good/neutral in growth regressions: Davis (1995), Sala-i-Martin et al. (2004), Stijns (2005), Brunnschweiler (2008, 2009) Existing resource curse findings fragile Lederman & Maloney (2007, 2009): curse not robust to data variations, control for fixed effects, X-concentration Ag has higher TFP growth than manufactures Bernard & Jones (1996), Martin and Mitra (2001) Notable technology spillovers & success stories From mining to steam engine, forestry to Volvo/Saab

12 IS IT WHAT WE PRODUCE, OR HOW? BEYOND GOODS

13 Trees can be very high tech! Nokia: Site of an early pulp mill in Finland

14 Innovation policy is key but production of high-tech goods can be very low tech Brazil and Mexico: IRCA in Aircraft and Computing Equipment Comparative Advantage in Innovation Brazil Aircrafts Mexico Brazil: Office Airplanes Computing & Acctg. 3.5!!! RCA Index in SIC 372 (18-yr MA) Korea: Computers Mexico: Computers Lederman and Maloney (2004) Year

15 Does China really export the ipod? Only 1% of its Value Added Table 2 China: 10 Exports with the Lowest Domestic Value Added Electronic computer 4.6 Telecommunication equipment 14.9 Cultural and office equipment 19.1 Other computer peripheral equipment 19.7 Electronic element and device 22.2 Radio, television, and communication equipment 35.5 Household electric appliances 37.2 Plastic products 37.4 Generators 39.6 Instruments, meters and other measuring equipment 42.2 China: 10 Exports with the Highest Domestic Value Added Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing machinery 81.8 Hemp textiles 82.7 Metalworking machinery 83.4 Steel pressing 83.4 Pottery, china and earthenware 83.4 Chemical fertilizers 84.0 Fireproof materials 84.7 Cement, lime and plaster 86.4 Other non-metallic mineral products 86.4 Coking the electronic components we make in Singapore require less skill than that required by barbers or cooks, involving mostly repetitive manual operations Goh Keng Swee, Minister of Finance Singapore (1972) Source: Koopmans, Wang, and Wei (2008).

16 CONCLUDING REMARKS

17 Doing Industrial Policy blindfolded Little guidance on what goods are good Even whether should focus on goods vs. tasks Leads us back to horizontalish IP policies: While no attempt made to target sectors, some industries may benefit more than others Resolve market failures related to innovation in old and new goods Deal with strategic coordination policies and other barriers to the emergence of new goods and improvement of old e.g. availability of human capital, long term financing, macro stability, infrastructure, trade networks Do not ignore underlying pattern of comparative advantage

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