Vector-Based Metrics for Assessing Technology Maturity

Transcription

1 Vector-Based Metrics for Assessing Technology Maturity Gerard E. Sleefe, Ph.D. Senior Technical Deputy to the Chief Engineer Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque, NM, USA Contact: ; Sandia is a multi-program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL SAND Number: P Systems Engineering Conference October 2011

2 Presentation Outline Background and Motivation Scalar Metrics for Technology Maturity Introduction to Vector-Based Metrics Systems Engineering Example Technology Maturation Example Conclusion and Recommendations

3 Quiz Question A car is traveling at 50 mph, and a truck is travelling at 60 mph. When and where will they meet?

4 Quiz Question #2 A Next-Generation Microprocessor is currently being prototyped (TRL=4, MRL=3). When will the new microprocessor hit the market (TRL=9, MRL=9)?

5 Scalar Technology Metrics Technology Readiness Scale *For more technology metrics, see for example E. Geisler, 1999 Scalar Metrics play an important role in technology management, acquisition, systems engineering But: they measure only the magnitude of the current state And: they usually do not have a mathematical basis for performing systems engineering calculations

6 Vector-Based Metrics Measure the Magnitude AND Direction Enables Vector Mathematics between Metrics * after Marsden et.al., Vector Calculus, 2003

7 Vector-based Technology Metrics Some proposed vector metrics Technology Maturation Rate (TMR): d TMR( t) TRL ( t) dt TRL = Technology Readiness Levels Technology Profit Margin (TPM): TPM ( t) MV ( t) I( t) MV = Market Value of the technology I = Investment in the technology

8 Systems Engineering Example System Sub-System #1 Sub-System #2 A B C D E

9 Systems Aggregation of TRL s System TRL=3? Sub-System #1 TRL=3? Sub-System #2 TRL=6? A B C D E TRL=4 TRL=3 TRL=5 TRL=8 TRL=6 TRL of Sub-Sys #1 = min (TRL4, TRL3, TRL5) = TRL3 TRL of Sub-Sys #2 = min (TRL8, TRL6) = TRL6 TRL of the System = min (TRL3, TRL6) = TRL3 TRL s alone do not give full insight into system-level maturity

10 Vector Analysis of Systems A Sub-System #1 B C TRL=4 TRL=3 TRL=5 TRL(t) C A B Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 TMR 1 Time (t) TMR ( t) A( t) B( t) C( t) 1

11 Technology Maturation Study Monitor an actual product development effort over the course of 18 months Measure technology metrics throughout, and make informed decisions using technology vector analysis COTS Acceleration Switch MEMS Acceleration Switch Initial State (Switch Open) Actuated State (Switch Closed) Metal Standoff TO-18 Package with single gold pin (other pin-out arrangements possible) Acceleration g (m/s 2 ) Acknowledgement: Polosky and Garcia, 2006

12 Experimental Observables Traditional project management metrics Cost, schedule, and technical requirements Quantitative technology metrics Technology Readiness Metrics (TRL, MRL, TMR, etc. ) Product development cycle time (months) Prototype production yield (%)

13 Experimental Results: MEMS Technology Development Progression Month 0 Develop Model-Based Designs Month 5 Develop Low Contact Resistance Month 7 Develop Robust Spring Design Month 9 Design and Process Enhancements Month 12 Final Design and Process Adjustments Month 17 Go, No-Go Decisions Feasibility Demonstrated Fully-Functional Devices Yielded Meets all Normal Environmental Specifications Meets Severe Environmental Specifications Meets Most Reliability Requirements

14 Experimental Results: MEMS Development and Production Metrics Product Development Cycle Time (months) Prototype Production Yield (%) Time (months) MEMS reached TRL=7 after 18 months Time (months)

15 G-level COTS Challenges Acceleration Sensitivity deviates from manufacturer s spec 25 Close g-level (last) avg vs Category of test ByAngle = 0, Screened MC's Part Failed due to Metal Shard 10 5 COTS 0 ByCurve Pop R S IA2269 F R S MC4759 F Project: GROUP 4.MPJ; Worksheet: Comparison; 6/9/2004

16 Technology Maturation Vector Analysis TRL(t) COTS 2 MEMS Time (t) Month 0 Month 5 Month 11 Month 17

17 Vector-based Metrics Complement Traditional Technology Management Tools Innovation Cost Technology Management Framework Schedule Performance (Technical Requirements)

18 Summary Vector-based metrics can provide additional technology management insight: Enable the assessment of both magnitude and direction Provide a mathematical framework for system analytics Recommend that Maturation Rates (vector quantity) be used to complement the TRL and MRL scales Follow-on studies recommended: To evaluate effectiveness of vector-based metrics To establish a technology maturation database TRL, MRL, Vectors, etc. versus technology categories would support predictive modeling of technology maturation

19 Backups

20 Technology Readiness Level (TRL) TRL History: MEMS vs COTS 9 MEMS COTS Time (months)